LeBron James won a pair of NBA championships in four seasons with Miami – and he'd love nothing more than to add another ring at the expense of those same Heat.
NBA odds have James and the Los Angeles Lakers as five-point favorites for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday against a Miami Heat team that defied the NBA betting world to reach its first championship appearance since a five-game loss to the San Antonio Spurs in 2014
James led that Heat team to four straight NBA Finals appearances and has returned the Lakers to the title series for the first time since 2010 as they rolled past Portland, Houston and Denver after securing the top seed in the Western Conference.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Lakers Game 1 on September 30.
Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers betting preview
NBA Finals Odds to Win Series
Miami: -350
Los Angeles: +275
Injuries
Miami: Chris Silva SG (Out)
Los Angeles: Dion Waiters SG (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Lakers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Heat have had answers for every team they've faced in the postseason, sweeping Indiana in Round 1 before ousting the heavily-favored Milwaukee Bucks in Round 2 and knocking off the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Their offense is balanced, their defense stout, and they've taken great care of the basketball through their first 15 postseason contests.
The Heat have two big questions to answer in the NBA Finals: Can they slow down LeBron James, and can they limit the damage Anthony Davis does? LeBron will almost certainly face Miami's Jimmy Butler, while the Heat will put Bam Adebayo on Davis. And while the Lakers still have the edge in both matchups, it isn't nearly as significant as it was against L.A.'s previous foes.
We like the Heat to keep this game – and this series – competitive throughout, so we're leaning toward Miami and the points.
PREDICTION: Miami +5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both teams saw plenty of high-scoring games in their respective conference finals – at least, based on where the Vegas totals sat by tipoff. The Heat and Celtics converted the Over five times in their six-game battle, while the Lakers and Nuggets went above the number in four of their last five.
Both sides will be a little fresher, thanks to having a couple of days off, and will need some time to adjust to the opponent's attack style. That should result in plenty of points on the board in the opener, even if either side gets off to a bit of a slow start.
PREDICTION: Over 217.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
If the Lakers hope to match offensive balance with the ever-dangerous Heat, they'll need to maximize their ball distribution skills. And it goes beyond what LeBron can offer — they'll need plenty from veteran guard Rajon Rondo, who has racked up seven or more assists in seven of the last nine games (not surprisingly, the Lakers are 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in that nine-game span).
Expect to see plenty of Rondo in Game 1, which makes the Over on his assist prop a viable option.
PREDICTION: Rajon Rondo Over 6.5 assists (-150)
Heat vs Lakers Betting Card
- Miami +5 (-110)
- Over 217.5 (-110)
- Rajon Rondo Over 6.5 assists (-150)
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