The Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Sunday. No team in history has erased a 3-0 series deficit, making Game 3 of the NBA Finals a must-win game for the Bucks.
Will Milwaukee earn a victory and find a way to stay in the series? Continue reading for our best free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Bucks.
Suns vs Bucks game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Suns vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee opened as a 3.5-point home favorite at TwinSpires after its Game 2 loss, and as of 5 p.m. ET is up to -4.5. The Bucks are taking 54 percent of spread tickets, while the Suns are seeing 53 percent of spread money. "There isn't much separating the two teams tonight. Great two-way action," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total opened at 222 and is down a tick to 221.5, with the Under taking 56 percent of tickets and 58 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns vs Bucks series odds
Suns: -480
Bucks: +380
Suns vs Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Suns: F Torrey Craig (Questionable), F Dario Saric (Out).
Bucks: G Donte DiVincenzo (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The first two games of this series had to have been very frustrating for the Bucks. After losing Game 1 in what was an extremely lopsided game, Milwaukee made a ton of adjustments and looked a lot better in Game 2. The only problem is that Phoenix was blistering hot from the outside, shooting 20 for 40 from the outside. That type of performance isn’t sustainable moving forward, but it’s definitely getting to a point where it’s fair to wonder whether or not the Bucks are good enough to win both of these games at home.
Game 3 is normally the hardest game for a road team to win, especially when up 2-0 in a series this late in the postseason. Milwaukee’s season is very likely over if the team doesn’t show up and take this game, but this Phoenix team also happens to be one of the most well-coached groups in the entire league.
The Suns also have veterans Chris Paul and Jae Crowder, who each know that going into Fiserv Forum and winning this game is the equivalent of stepping on the Bucks' throats. Last series, Phoenix was unable to beat the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 3, and that ultimately put a lot of pressure on the Suns. They’re not going to show up and put forth a lousy effort, and Paul has already said that this next game is the biggest of their season.
This game won’t be easy for Phoenix in any capacity and Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will likely play a lot better than they did in Game 2. However, the same also goes for Paul and Deandre Ayton. Both struggled in Phoenix’s Game 2 win, and it’s hard to envision them doing so in back-to-back games.
Devin Booker is getting some great looks at the basket in this series. The young star had 31 points in a remarkable Game 2 effort for the Suns, and he should be able to continue pouring it on against the Bucks. Milwaukee has one of the best crowds in the league, but the team doesn’t have anybody that can really cover Booker. Last series, Booker was being smothered by Patrick Beverley, but he has some real room to work with in this one.
Overall, the Suns look to be getting too many points in this game, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if they won this thing outright. Phoenix was the best road team in the league this season, and that has continued in the playoffs. The Suns will win one of the next two in Milwaukee. The big question mark is which one it’ll be, but they will be locked in and looking to end this here.
PREDICTION: Suns +4.5 (-106)
Over/Under pick
The Under has hit in four of the last five games that the Suns have played as road underdogs, and those games have generally turned into old-fashioned slugfests. Game 6 against Los Angeles was the lone exception, with the Suns getting red hot and turning that one into a blowout. However, each of the previous four as road dogs went well Under, and these teams are also due for a low-scoring game.
The Suns likely won’t shoot 46.6 percent or better from the floor when hitting the road in Game 3, but they’re also more than capable of locking in and defending at a high enough level to win this game.
Considering the way Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated in Game 2, some adjustments will be coming to take him out of his game. Unless both Holiday and Middleton start playing better, the Bucks can’t survive a game in which Giannis doesn’t impose his will.
PREDICTION: Under 222.0 (-110)
First half ATS pick
If you’re backing the Suns to win this game, you might as well roll with them in the first half. If Milwaukee is going to come out and take Game 3, that means the team is going to ride the momentum of its home crowd and storm out to an early lead. However, the Suns just learned firsthand what it’s like to not match the intensity of your opponent against the Clippers, and the reality is that there isn’t a single team in the league that can play with as much tenacity as that Los Angeles group. With that said, the Suns are going to rise to the occasion in this game and they have what it takes to withstand the best the Bucks have to offer.
PREDICTION: Suns +2.5 (+116)
Suns vs Bucks betting card
- Suns +4.5 (-106)
- Under 222.0 (-110)
- Suns +2.5 (+116)
Picks made on 7/10/2021 at 6:15 p.m. ET
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