The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox begin a short two-game set at Fenway Park tonight.
The Yankees have won five of their last seven and look to close the season strong and stay ahead of the surging Jays and Rays in the AL East standings. The Red Sox are at the bottom of the AL East, 16 games behind the Bronx Bombers, in yet another year where pitching has ruined their postseason chances.
Here are my best free Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for September 13.
Yankees vs Red Sox best odds
Yankees vs Red Sox picks and predictions
The Yankees have been maddeningly inconsistent at the dish this season but they seem to be on the right track after back-to-back 10-run explosions against the Rays.
Now they face Boston starter Nick Pivetta who gets hit hard and has been shredded by them this season. Pivetta has surrendered at least four earned runs in all three of his starts vs. the Yankees while posting an ERA of 11.48.
To be fair, Gerrit Cole — tonight's starter for New York — has a 5.29 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox, but his 1.00 WHIP and .213 OBA suggests that he should be getting better results. Cole is, for the most part, a stud and the Yankees bullpen is also far superior to Boston's.
The Yankees moneyline price of -160 suggests a win probability of 61.54%, but given the huge disparity in pitching in this matchup, I'd give them an even better chance of winning than that. Especially against a Red Sox side that is just 17-36 in its last 53 games against AL East opponents.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-160 at bet365)
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Yankees vs Red Sox betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
At the start of July, the Yankees were on pace to set the MLB record for wins in a season and although they've cooled off since then, they still have a comfortable 5.5-game lead on the Blue Jays atop the AL East.
With the exception of the always incredible Aaron Judge, the Yankees bats have been some of the streakiest in the bigs. In July, they were second in the majors with an OPS of .835. In August, they slumped to .651, the fourth-worst mark.
They do seem to be trending in the right direction again after beating the Rays 10-4 and 10-3 in their last two games. New York will send All-Star pitcher Gerrit Cole to the mound and while he sometimes completely falls apart in a single inning, he's still one of the best in the business.
Cole is third in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) while ranking second in SIERA (2.77) and eighth in strikeout to walk ratio (5.2). The Yankees also have a terrific bullpen behind him with their relievers owning a 2.93 ERA.
They should have a significant advantage on the mound against the Red Sox and Pivetta. The right-hander has a mediocre 4.29 ERA in 28 starts this season and ranks among the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers when it comes to hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
That's bad news against a Yankees lineup that is fourth in the majors in hard-hit rate while ranking third in average exit velocity. Boston's bullpen has also been melting down all too often and ranks 25th in the majors with an unsightly 4.49 ERA.
The Red Sox have been hitting the ball well this season, ranking ninth in the majors in OPS at .732 with that number bumping up to .775 over the last 30 days. However, they've been very reliant on the top of their lineup and despite their productive bats, they sit at the bottom of the AL East with a 69-72 record.
Over/Under analysis
With the exception of a 17-4 rout of the Orioles on Saturday, the Red Sox have played in some very low-scoring games over the last week. However, their strong hitting and poor pitching typically result in plenty of runs being put on the board, especially at Fenway Park, where they average 4.68 runs per game and surrender 5.12.
I mentioned how streaky the Yankees have been at the dish but they are currently red-hot and have cashed the Over in five of their last six contests.
Although the Under hit in the last three meetings between these rivals, the Over had hit in the seven contests before that with these AL East foes combining for a whopping 13.6 runs/game in seven meetings in July.
The analytics suggest that these teams can mash with the Yankees fourth in the majors in hard-hit rate and second in barrel rate while the BoSox are sixth in hard-hit rate and seventh in barrel rate.
The Sox have also been the seventh-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to THE BAT X, and they should at least benefit from a weak-fielding Yankees squad.
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, NESN
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (11-7, 3.20 ERA): The five-time All-Star has a 3.17 FIP with a 1.02 WHIP and an OBA of .209 in 28 starts this year. Cole is fresh off a brilliant start against the Twins where he fanned 14 batters through 6 2-3 innings of one-run ball, and he has a 2.03 ERA in his last six starts.
Nick Pivetta (9-11, 4.29 ERA): Pivetta has pitched to a 4.13 FIP with a 1.32 WHIP and an OBA of .246 through 28 starts this year. He's coming off a strong outing against the Rays where he lost despite allowing just two hits through five innings of one-run ball. The veteran right-hander has been wrecked by the Yankees this season, surrendering 17 runs and six dingers in 13 1-3 innings across three starts.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 17-36 in their last 53 games against division foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
