Like Snake Plissken, the San Diego Padres will hope to escape from L.A. as they attempt to wrap up their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night.
The Padres lost 5-4 on Saturday but won the first two games in the series and will look to upset the reigning World Series champs yet again. MLB betting lines have San Diego as a slim +106 underdog in tonight's game with the total set at 7.5.
Here are our best free Padres vs. Dodgers picks and predictions for Sunday, April 25, with the first pitch at 7:08 p.m. ET.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Los Angeles a -130 favorite at Saturday evening's outset and crept up to -134 a couple of times, then the moneyline dipped to -120 late this afternoon and is -126 at 4:45 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are taking 69 percent of tickets and 65 percent of cash. The total bounced between 7.5 and 7 several times and is now 7.5 (Under -115), with the Over landing 60 percent of bets/53 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.04 ERA): Musgrove has been absolutely electric in his first season with the Friars, highlighted by throwing a no-hitter against the Rangers in his second start of the year. Although he's coming off a loss against the Brewers, he looked sharp in that contest, fanning 13 batters through seven innings of two-run ball.
Dustin May (1-1, 2.93 ERA): May is fresh off a rough outing against the Mariners where he allowed four runs and a pair of dingers through five innings. That said, the 23-year-old has grabbed a rotation spot with his terrific stuff and is making batters miss, racking up 22 strikeouts through his first 15 1-3 innings of the season.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Austin Nola C (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out).
Dodgers: Gavin Lux SS (Questionable), Zach McKinstry 2B (Out), Cody Bellinger CF (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these NL West rivals in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Moneyline pick
It's wild to think that just two weeks ago there were rumors that Padres phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. could miss the entire season due to a shoulder injury. The 22-year-old MVP candidate has put those rumors to rest after belting two home runs in each of the last two games against the Dodgers.
Despite Tatis' recent power surge, the Padres are just 18th in the majors in OPS (.685) while ranking 25th in scoring with 3.68 runs per game. The Dodgers have been the much more consistent team at the plate this season, sitting third in the majors with an OPS of .761 while ranking eighth with 4.85 runs per game.
This is a Dodgers lineup loaded with talent, which tonight will feature last season's NL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts, World Series MVP Corey Seager, and power-hitting infielders Justin Turner and Max Muncy.
Although Musgrove has been lights out this season, he has struggled with inconsistency in the past, and May has also looked sharp for the Dodgers.
Despite losing two of their first three games in this series, the Dodgers are still a dominant 91-34 in their last 125 games at home. You're not going to get a better moneyline price on the Dodgers at home than this.
PREDICTION: Dodgers (-125)
Over/Under pick
While Musgrove's biggest accomplishment this season was his no-hitter against Texas, he has been solid throughout all four of his starts. He's coming off his worst outing of the year—and he still struck out 13 batters and allowed just two runs in that game.
Musgrove's strong play hasn't come out of thin air as the 28-year-old showed improvement last year when he pitched to a 3.86 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 39 2-3 innings with the Pirates.
May will hope to match him tonight and the young pitcher has shown plenty of promise. May has a diverse arsenal with four pitches and he has outstanding velocity on his four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter.
May also pitched very well against the Friars last season, posting a 2.21 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP across 20 1-3 innings in both the regular season and postseason.
Both of these clubs also have strong bullpens, with San Diego relievers ranking fourth in the majors with a 2.92 ERA and the Dodgers ranking eighth with an ERA of 3.77.
With the Under going 6-2 in the Padres last eight games, while also going 5-2 in the Dodgers' previous seven contests, back the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (+100)
Padres vs Dodgers betting card
- Dodgers (-125)
- Under 7 (+100)
Picks made on 4/25/2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET
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