MLB betting tips to help you beat the heat - and sportsbooks this summer

With MLB betting at the break, and temperatures as well as playoff races heating up, we’re delivering some helpful handicapping “How-To’s” right down the middle.

Mar 28, 2020 • 01:32 ET
The suns shines down on a Rockies game at Coors Field.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

With 162 games on the schedule for each team, the Major League Baseball season is almost an organic entity. It grows and changes with every passing month, and so should the way you handicap the daily MLB action.

When MLB betting returns after the All-Star break, and temperatures as well as playoff races heating up, we’re delivering some helpful handicapping “How-To’s” right down the middle.

HEAT IS ON

If you couldn’t tell from the buckets of sweat pouring down your face, the summer is officially here. Punishing heat will plague the majors in the next two months, and is something baseball bettors need to consider when making their plays.

First, heat usually goes hand-in-hand with humidity, which can give those flyballs a little extra hang. That means more home runs and deep shots, especially in places like Texas. If you find a big-swinging team matched up against a flyball pitcher in hot and humid conditions, you could score some hidden value betting the Over.

Heat is also tough on starting pitchers, simply because they have to stand out there on the mound, cooking in the sun, while batters can come and go from the shade of the dugout. Slender pitchers seem to be impacted by the hot weather more than heftier hurlers, who can absorb the punishment of the summer sun. When facing scorching conditions, it's smart to see how the scheduled hurlers handle the heat. Always be sure to check out the latest temperatures on our MLB Weather page.

WEAR AND TEAR

When the calendar hits July, major leaguers have three and a half months of nightly punishment wearing on them. It’s around this point in the season that we see crowded disabled lists, with star players, starting pitchers, and key components breaking down.

Baseball bettors will want to dissect any injury to a regular contributor. If a lead-off hitter is out of action, how will that lineup perform without them setting the table? If a starter is suddenly injured, who is the replacement arm and does it deplete the bullpen? All questions you need answers to. 

On the back end of this, returning talents can give a team a sudden lift, so be mindful of healthy additions and what the team was lacking before those bodies were back on the diamond.

TRUST THE NUMBERS

Early into the baseball season, we see some surprise results and anomalies. But once we're more than three months in, what you see is pretty much what you get from big league clubs. So, don’t expect a sudden 180 from teams or starters who may be streaking or slumping.

If anything, streaks and slumps should hold a lot more weight. In other sports like football or basketball, teams get extended breaks to correct or cool off. That’s not the case in baseball, which sees teams playing six and seven games in a week. 

The odds are really tight come July and August, due to all that data being available, so rather than betting against those trends, you should lean in and play on hot teams and fade the cold ones. Don’t try to be too contrarian, if you can help it. 

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