Sunday Night Baseball gives baseball fans something to look forward to today as the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets battle it out for their division.
Atlanta holds a one-game lead in the NL East, so a New York win opens the window of pushing the reigning World Series champions to the Wild Card.
Check out our MLB betting picks and predictions for the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves on Sunday, October 2.
Mets vs Braves best odds
Mets vs Braves picks and predictions
The Mets are biting at Atlanta's heels in both teams' quest to take home the division in order to earn a bye to start the postseason. Win, and the Braves can rest easier with a two-game lead and only three games left in the regular season.
Whoever finishes second place in the division is relegated to a three-game Wild Card Series — volatility both clubs would rather avoid. Expect to see both teams’ best efforts Sunday Night in what will resemble close to a playoff atmosphere.
Charlie Morton gets the nod for Atlanta, and he’s been on an ugly stretch of games lately. The veteran has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs across his last three starts, but here’s the thing — all three of those starts came on the road. Morton has had massive home/road splits this season, with an ugly 5.72 ERA in away games and a spectacular 2.88 ERA at home.
In a playoff atmosphere, I expect a solid outing out of a player like Morton, who has been in this position plenty of times in his career and earned his reputation as a big-game pitcher.
Chris Bassitt gets the nod for the Mets. He’s been effective this season, but his home/road splits are also something worth considering in this spot. Bassitt has a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 ERA on the road but a 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home. He’ll be on the road for this matchup, which does dampen his outlook in this spot.
Both teams have a quality lineup, but I give a slight edge to the Braves. Atlanta ranks sixth in wOBA and sixth in wRC+ over the last 15 days, while the Mets check in at seventh in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ during that time span.
The Braves are 41-12 in their last 53 home games, and that’s not something I can ignore in this spot. Both teams have the talent to make a postseason run and there isn’t a huge edge for either side, but the Braves have been lights out at Truist Park and have a veteran pitcher on the mound who has proven trustworthy in big games.
My best bet: Braves moneyline (-125 at WynnBet)
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Mets vs Braves moneyline analysis
Home/road splits are a factor in this matchup for both teams. The Braves have a stellar 54-26 record at home this season, much better than their 45-33 record on the road. It must come as a relief that their biggest game of the season to date — and the biggest game of the 2022 regular season, for any team — comes in their home confines of Truist Park.
The Mets are 51-27 at home but 47-33 on the road. It’s not that either record is bad, but it’s undeniable that they’ve been more fortunate at home than on the road.
Both teams have been a good bet lately. The Mets are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall and have typically been a good bet in this spot. They are 8-2 in their last 10 Sunday games and 42-16 in their last 58 games following a loss.
Going against quality starting pitching hasn’t been a concern for Atlanta (a must come playoff time), as it is 10-2 in its last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under analysis
The Mets have been trending hard toward the Over, cashing tickets in six of their last seven games overall, and an even better bet on the road — cashing in 10 of their last 12 away games. This lineup has typically performed well in away games, ranking third in both wOBA and wRC+ on the road this season.
The Braves have been trending in the opposite direction, playing to the Under in six of their last seven games overall. In their last 12 games following a win, the Under is 10-2. They’ve been trending that way basically every way you look at it, as they’re also 9-4 in their last 13 games against a right-handed starter.
There are two quality pitchers on the mound, and it’s quite possible both teams are a little tight in such a big spot. Morton is a wily veteran with a 2.88 ERA and 1.02 at home, while Bassitt has allowed just 10 earned runs across his last five starts. Expect both managers to be quick with the hook if either pitcher struggles in a playoff-esque game. The Mets rank third in bullpen ERA (2.98) while the Mets are 10th (3.65).
Mets vs Braves trend to know
Atlanta is 41-12 in its last 53 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 2, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.27 ERA): Bassitt’s first season in New York has been a resounding success. He’s done nothing but pitch well over the last 3+ seasons, posting a 2.29 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, a 3.15 ERA in 2021, and a 3.27 ERA in 2022 as his first with the Mets. He excels at limiting hard contact and has just a 4.4% barrel rate.
Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA): Morton keeps chugging along during his age 38 season. His ERA (4.29) is up from last season (3.34). Although he is still striking out a lot of batters (28.4% strikeout rate), his 8.8% walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2018. He’s been hit hard lately, allowing a whopping 14 earned runs across his last three starts.
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
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Mets vs Braves weather
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