Giants vs Brewers Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Burnes Torches San Fran at Home

The Brewers need to wake up after a lousy road trip, and find a get-right spot at home with a stud on the mound. Find out why Corbin Burnes is bad news for the Giants with our MLB betting picks.

Last Updated: Sep 8, 2022 9:47 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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The San Francisco Giants face the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 1 of a doubleheader, and they enter this two-game set coming off a series away loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Milwaukee is desperate for a win and will be happy to head home after an unsuccessful 2-5 road trip against the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Brewers have a shot at an NL Wild Card, but are just 1-4 this season against the Giants. Can the Brewers snap their two-game skid? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers on September 8.

(Editor's Note: The Giants announced Scott Alexander as the starter for Game 1, but reports indicate that it will be as an opener for Jakob Junis.) 

Giants vs Brewers odds

Giants vs Brewers picks and predictions

The juice is too high to play Milwaukee on the moneyline, but the run line will do just fine here.

This is a huge series for Milwaukee, and Corbin Burnes is the right man for the job Thursday afternoon.

Burnes has been roughed up over his last two starts, but Milwaukee is 6-4 over his previous 10 home starts as a favorite, and he sports a 3.28 ERA with a 2.57 home xFIP over 85 frames in 2022.

Burnes strikes out a dozen per nine home innings, and he faces a Giants offense with the ninth-highest strikeout rate while slashing .229/.313/.376/.689 vs righties. That isn’t going to cut it against Burnes on Thursday afternoon.

The Milwaukee hurler has pitched well against this collection of Giants over his career, and these hitters slash .149/.203/.257/.459 with 27 Ks over 74 at-bats.

Jakob Junis posts an away 4.66 ERA with a slightly better 3.96 xFIP. The righty strikes out just under eight, but allows nearly four walks and 1.16 bombs over 38.2 away innings pitched.

Current Brewers bats have slapped Junis around the yard a bit, slashing .324/.375/.568/.943 over 37 at-bats, and that doesn’t bode well for the young fella Thursday afternoon.

The Giants bullpen is tired, and pitched the entire ballgame Tuesday night against the Dodgers, with an additional 3.2 frames Wednesday. Junis knows this and the pressure to get quick outs may lead to overthrowing — that’s where his issues with free passes come into play.

Finally, the Brewers have won four of their last six home contests and are 35-26 at American Family Field in 2022. They face a Giants team that is 3-7 over their last 10 away games and 28-37 away from Oracle Park.

My best bet: Brewers -1.5 (+105 at DraftKings)

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Giants vs Brewers betting preview

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Side analysis Over/Under analysis Starting pitchers Injuries Weather Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

It’s a shame the juice is too high, otherwise the Brewers moneyline would be the play.

Milwaukee can’t afford to fall behind in the NL Wild Card standings, and it needs this win Thursday.

Burnes is in a terrific spot Thursday against a collection of bats he’s dominated, and the Giants’ high strikeout rate should be just what the doctor ordered for a recently ailing Burnes. 

Milwaukee is 14-3 when Burnes starts Game 1 of a series, and while the Brewers hurler has struggled over his last two starts, he knows he needs to pitch well after his club’s rough road trip.

San Francisco might be 4-1 in 2022 against Milwaukee, but the Giants struggle on the road. The juice is too high for me to bet, but the Brewers should win this contest.

Over/Under analysis

Seven runs is too low for this ballgame.

Milwaukee scores nearly five runs per Burnes start, and the Giants usually match that number behind Junis.

The over is 7-3 over Burnes’ last 10 starts as a home favorite, and 4-0 in his last four starts against the NL West.

As previously mentioned, the Giants bullpen is gassed, and tired arms aren’t a good thing against a Brewers lineup and its 8th-best 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and 10th-best overall wRC+ of 110.

Milwaukee strokes the ball and slashes .243/.320/.432/.752 this season vs right-handed pitching, and averages 4.67 runs per Burnes start this season. 

Finally, neither bullpen sets the world on fire, and we can expect to see some late-inning scoring as both pens have team ERAs of 3.98 and above.

Giants vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS Bay Area, Bally Sports Midwest

Starting pitchers

Jakob Junis ( 4-4, 4.05 ERA): Junis has coughed up 18 earned runs over his past 24.2 innings. He offers a 3.89 xERA alongside a 3.65 xFIP while whiffing eight hitters per nine frames on the hill. 

Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.02 ERA): Burnes is expected to make the start, and he’s allowed 18 earned runs over his last 28 frames. Burnes has a solid 3.13 xERA with a stronger 3.05 xFIP and strikes out 11 batters per nine innings pitched. 

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 14-3 in Burnes' last 17 Game 1 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Brewers

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