The San Diego Padres took Game 1 of the series, giving fans at Petco something to cheer for in a 5-4 victory. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the better squad this season however and have won 10 of the 14 meetings.
Saturday’s Game 2 sees an excellent pitching matchup between two southpaws: Julio Urias and Blake Snell.
Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Padres on Saturday, September 10.
Dodgers vs Padres best odds
Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions
I expect Saturday’s Game 2 to be a pitching duel between two effective left-handers.
Let’s start with Julio Urias. It seems like he’s been in the league for quite some time, but the star southpaw is still only 26 years old. He originally entered the majors as a 19-year-old back in 2016 and while he’s found success at times, 2022 has been his best season to date.
He’s won 15 games and has a stellar 2.29 ERA. He gets a matchup against a Padres lineup that is nothing special against lefties, ranking 19th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+ against southpaws this season.
Although San Diego has been trending to the Over lately (7-1 in its last eight overall), the Under is actually 5-2 in its last seven home games.
Now, let’s talk about Blake Snell. The left-hander’s advanced numbers look a lot better than his 3.73 ERA indicates. His 3.37 xERA is undeniably encouraging, while his 2.92 FIP is downright good. The Dodgers hit lefties well — because of course they do — and the lineup is loaded. That being said, their ranks against southpaws (sixth in wOBA, fifth in wRC+) are notably worse than their mark against righties, where they rank first in both categories.
Given that, I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the Under is 10-3-2 in the Dodgers’ last 15 road games against a right-handed starter.
The bottom line is that this matchup features two very good pitchers. It shouldn’t be a surprise that both of these southpaws have trended to the Under this season — Los Angeles has gone Under the total in 16 of Urias’ 23 starts, while the Padres have cashed an Under ticket in 13 of Snell’s 19 starts.
I’m playing the Under on a rainy, windy day in San Diego.
My best bet: Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM)
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Dodgers vs Padres betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
In case you live under a rock, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball. They now have a +297 run differential after last night’s one-run loss. To understand how impressive that number is, consider that the New York Yankees are second with a differential of +197 — 100 runs fewer than Los Angeles.
It’s not often that the Dodgers are only -140 on the moneyline, but that’s the case Saturday night. Books like PointsBet and bet365 both have the Dodgers -140 on the moneyline and the comeback on the Padres at +120.
These teams have met 14 times this season, with 10 of those going in favor of L.A.. With a quality pitcher like Urias on the mound, the Dodgers are the deserving favorite.
Los Angeles is 19-8 in its last 27 road games and 49-15 in its last 64 overall.
The Padres, meanwhile, are just 2-6 in their last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above .500. They have struggled when stepping up in competition.
In the last 51 meetings between these teams, the Dodgers are 36-15.
Over/Under analysis
Both teams have been profitable going Under the total this season. The Dodgers are 59-65-13 to the Over while the Padres are 66-69-4.
L.A. has arguably the best lineup in the league headed by Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman. How has their performance been lately? As a team, the Dodgers rank fourth in both wOBA and wRC+ since the calendar flipped to September.
The Padres made numerous trade deadline acquisitions to bolster the lineup headlined by Juan Soto. The star outfield hasn’t played up to his typical level in San Diego, which the team obviously hopes will change before the playoffs come closer.
In the month of September, San Diego ranks 21st in wOBA and 20th in wRC+.
Weather will be something to monitor in this one. With Hurricane Kay blowing in Baja California, San Diego is expected to be impacted. The forecast calls for 10 mph winds blowing out to right field and a 71% chance of precipitation.
The Under is 13-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games against a left-handed starting pitcher, but the Over is 5-0 in the Padres’ last five games against a southpaw.
Dodgers vs Padres game info
• Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Starting pitchers
Julio Urias (15-7, 2.29 ERA): What a season it’s been for the young southpaw. Urias has been among the game’s best pitchers this season, winning 15 games and counting with a superb 2.29 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The advanced numbers still look good, but perhaps not quite as dominant. His 2.77 xERA is encouraging, but his 3.61 FIP is out of line with his other statistics.
Blake Snell (6-8, 3.73 ERA): The other left-hander in this matchup is Snell, who has allowed only one earned run across his last two starts. Surprisingly, his 3.97 ERA at Petco is higher than his 3.38 ERA on the road. His 2.92 xERA and 2.92 FIP are both very encouraging.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 13-6-3 in the Dodgers’ last 22 games against a left-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
