The Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox will wrap up their mini-two game set on Wednesday after a low-scoring series opener.
Atlanta got another strong start from Charlie Morton to hold Boston's potent bats in check in a 3-1 victory and will turn to Drew Smyly in hopes of a repeat performance, while the Red Sox counter with Nick Pivetta.
Check out our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Red Sox on May 25 at Fenway Park.
Braves vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, May 26, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: BS-SO, NESN
Braves vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Braves vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.11 ERA): The lefty has settled down after a miserable April, throwing three consecutive quality starts this month to lower his ERA from 8.05 to 5.11. He has allowed only five runs over those three outings, but home run problems continue to trouble the veteran. Smyly surrendered two bombs in his last game and has been taken deep multiple times in four of his seven starts.
Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.59 ERA): Pivetta has surprisingly been Boston's best starter through nearly two months of the season, allowing two runs or fewer in six of his nine starts. He's always had strikeout stuff and is coming off a season-high-tying eight punchouts, but he was touched up for five runs (also a season-high) on seven hits in that start against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Red Sox: Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Red Sox are 10-1 in Pivetta's last 11 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
After bashing their way to 30 runs over a four-game winning streak, the BoSox have been held to a total of three runs in back-to-back losses. Morton and a pair of Braves relievers held them to just three hits in Tuesday's loss while racking up 12 strikeouts along the way.
We expect Boston to get back on track today, though. The Red Sox are first in the majors in OPS, second in batting average, and get on-base at the seventh-best clip in the game. As well as Smyly has thrown of late — working six innings in three straight starts with limited damage, dropping his ERA nearly three full runs — it's tough to get behind him for this difficult matchup.
It's not just Smyly who we're concerned about here, either. Atlanta, looking to extend its winning streak to five games, has some good arms in its 'pen, but the reality is that this group has not performed well as a whole with a 4.59 ERA and 4.40 walks-per-nine-inning rate that are both bottom-10 marks in baseball.
With Boston – which has gone 8-1 in Pivetta's nine starts this season – having the pitching edge in this game and an offense that's every bit as good as Atlanta's, if not better, we'll gladly side with the Red Sox as a slight favorite on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Boston (-120)
Over/Under pick
Smyly's home run issues can't be ignored, especially in a hitter-friendly park against a great offense that bashes homers (sixth in the majors) and hits lefties well. Boston's two big middle-of-the-order bats — J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts — are both righties who feast on southpaws. They are both great hitters, period, but throughout their careers have gained close to an average of 100 points of OPS when a left-hander is on the hill.
Speaking of home runs, no team does it better than the Braves. Atlanta has blasted a major league-leading 78 bombs, led by dynamic outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 15, which tops the National League.
While Pivetta hasn't been hurt by the long ball much this season, his numbers indicate that a stat correction is on the way. He's significantly below his career norms in home-run-to-fly-ball rate and homers allowed per nine innings and although his four-seamer has been an effective weapon for him, we're not buying that he suddenly stopped getting burned by the pitch.
Pivetta hasn't allowed a single fastball to leave the yard after giving up double-digit bombs on his four-seamer in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Atlanta, the best extra-base hitting team in baseball (versus both righties and lefties), is the type of club that can change that and expedite the stat correction in a hurry.
Both pitchers have been solid (Smyly at least recently) but we're putting our trust and money behind the bats today.
PREDICTION: Over 10.5 (-110)
Braves vs Red Sox betting card
- Boston (-120)
- Over 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/26/2021 at 8:58 a.m. ET
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