2023 Kentucky Oaks Win, Place, and Show Picks

The 2023 Kentucky Oaks takes place this Friday afternoon at historic Churchill Downs. The female equivalent of Saturday's Kentucky Derby, a full field of three-year-old fillies will go 1 1/8-miles on the main track. Here are our top betting selections.

May 4, 2023 • 10:30 ET • 4 min read
Wet Paint 2023 Kentucky Oaks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A deeply competitive field has assembled for Friday’s $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs. The historic 1 1/8-mile race has drawn an overflow field of 17 three-year-old fillies, with a maximum of 14 allowed to start.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a win pick, a place pick, and a show pick to build bets around.

Win pick: #6 Botanical (4-1)

At first glance, Botanical might seem like an outside-the-box win choice. After all, she’s never raced on dirt, the surface over which the Kentucky Oaks is contested.

But Botanical has shown a ton of talent over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park. She’s won four straight races by a minimum of 2 1/2 lengths, including the Cincinnati Trophy S. and Bourbonette Oaks on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. The latter victory saw Botanical lead all the way to prevail with a career-best 94 Brisnet Speed rating.

From a pedigree perspective, Botanical is bred to relish racing on dirt, so the surface switch shouldn’t be an issue. Her early speed should ensure she works out a clean trip on or near the lead, a benefit that shouldn’t be underestimated in this large field. Throw in the fact trainer Brad Cox has won two of the last five editions of the Kentucky Oaks, and Botanical is an appealing win choice at decent odds.

Place pick: #7 Wet Paint (5-2)

The morning-line favorite to win the Kentucky Oaks is Wet Paint, and she’s done absolutely nothing wrong racing on dirt. Her record over the surface stands at a perfect 4-for-4.

Wet Paint has been trouncing all comers at Oaklawn Park this year. She won the Martha Washington S. by two lengths, the Honeybee (G3) by three lengths, and the Fantasy (G3) by 2 1/2 lengths, in each instance unleashing giant rallies from off the pace to win going away.

Like Botanical, Wet Paint is conditioned by Cox, so the morning-line favorite has a high-profile trainer in her corner. The only concern for Wet Paint is the possibility of running into traffic in Friday’s full field. But if Wet Paint gets a clean trip, she’ll be charging strongly down the home stretch.

Show pick: #4 Southlawn (8-1)

Southlawn struggled a bit as a juvenile, winning only once from five starts. But the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has improved dramatically since undergoing surgery to correct a breathing issue and enters the Kentucky Oaks with a perfect 2-for-2 record in 2023.

In her first run of the season, Southlawn trounced a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer field at Fair Grounds by eight lengths. She followed up with a decisive 3 1/4-length triumph against accomplished competition in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), a race that has produced six of the last 18 Kentucky Oaks winners.

Southlawn isn’t quite as fast early as Botanical, but she has more tactical speed than Wet Paint. Southlawn figures to settle a few lengths off the Kentucky Oaks pace before pouncing around the turn and down the homestretch. If her sharp workouts at Churchill Downs are any indication, Southlawn will be in the hunt for victory in the final furlong.

Kentucky Oaks plays

If you want to keep things simple and opt for a win bet on a single horse, we recommend Botanical. If her 4-1 morning-line odds hold up, a $20 win bet will return $100.

Bettors in search of a larger payoff should consider the exacta, which requires selecting the top two finishers in the correct order. Playing a $10 ticket with Botanical on top and Wet Paint and Southlawn underneath costs $20, and based on past Kentucky Oaks payoffs, it has the potential to return around $200 if Wet Paint finishes second, and perhaps $400 if Southlawn snatches runner-up honors.

If you want to cover for the possibility of Botanical faltering in her first start on dirt, another option is to bet a $5 exacta using Botanical and Wet Paint for first place and Botanical, Wet Paint, and Southlawn for second place. The total cost is $20, with possible returns of around $85 to $200.

Good luck!

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