Open Championship Round 3 Picks & Predictions: McIlroy Well Positioned Ahead of the Weekend

Two rounds are in the books at The Open Championship, with Cameron Smith and Cameron Young leading the way into the weekend. Hot on their heels is Rory McIlroy, and our Round 3 picks like the Irishman to win his second at St. Andrews.

Jul 15, 2022 • 19:37 ET • 4 min read
Rory McIlroy PGA The Open Championship
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The second round of the 150th British Open concluded on Friday, with World No. 6 Cameron Smith ascending to the top of the leaderboard after he carded an 8-under 64 to set a 36-hole scoring record for an Open at St. Andrews.

Through two rounds of play, the 28-year-old Australian recorded 12 birdies and an eagle to move into a two-shot lead at 13-under. Cameron Young is now two strokes back, in second, at 11-under after finishing 3-under 69 on Friday. 

Young is one shot ahead of Rory McIlroy, who was The Open Championship odds favorite ahead of the weekend, and World No. 9 Victor Hovland, who are tied for third at 10-under in the year’s final major.

Let’s look ahead to Round 3 on Saturday with our three best British Open picks for the weekend.

2022 Open Championship Round 3 picks

Picks were made on 7/15/2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Best Open Championship bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some Open Championship betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now

B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only

Best 2022 Open Championship Round 3 picks

Rory McIlroy outright (+450)

McIlroy is no longer the favorite to win at St. Andrews, with Smith the current +165 frontrunner. If you were hesitant to back the four-time major winner after Round 1, when McIlroy’s odds were as low as +360, you now have the chance to snag a little bit of value.

Smith has performed well all season, with wins in the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January and The Players Championship in March, but he followed up the latter with a T3 in the Masters, after he unraveled in the final round and shot a 1-over 73 to drop into a tie for third.

While McIlroy has struggled with bad starts in majors, Smith has endured some heart-wrenching finishes that have prevented the five-time PGA Tour winner from celebrating his first major victory.

McIlroy is dialed in heading into the weekend, sitting a manageable three strokes off the lead, and has history on his side. He hoisted the Claret Jug in 2014, when he opened Round 1 at Hoylake with a 66, the same score he carded in Round 1 at the Old Course on Thursday to end the day second on the leaderboard.

Last year’s British Open winner, Collin Morikawa, also sat in second after the first round of play, similar to McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson was second after 18 holes before he went on to win the Open in 2016.

McIlroy has been creeping closer to that elusive fifth major title, and he’s playing too well to fade at St. Andrews.

Best odds: Rory McIlroy outright (+450 at DraftKings)

Paul Casey over Joaquin Niemann in R3 (+120)

In the third British Open start of his career, 23-year-old Joaquin Niemann had a respectable showing in Round 1, racking up four birdies against one bogey to finish 3-under for the day.

The Chilean ranked 12th among the field in strokes gained approaching the green and was Top 30 in strokes gained putting, but struggled off the tee. On Friday, his driver improved, but around and on the greens, his form flipped upside down. Niemann finished Friday’s round with a 2-over 74 and is tied for 55th with 11 other players, including Paul Casey.

Casey kicked off his 19th British Open start with four birdies through his first nine holes but bogeyed three holes on the back nine to finish 1-under 71. On Friday, he closed the day with an even-par 72 and ranked third among the field in strokes gained approach.

In Round 3, take the more experienced Casey over Niemann, who has one missed cut and a T59 in his two prior British Open appearances. Casey has played St. Andrews three times, with a T3 on his resume from the 2010 edition at the Old Course and should continue to improve heading into the weekend.

Best odds: Paul Casey over Joaquin Niemann in R3 (+120 at DraftKings)

Billy Horschel over Cameron Tringale in R3 (-105)

Billy Horschel has made the cut at the British Open for just the second time in four starts and third time in eight career appearances. To reach the third round at St. Andrews, he rebounded from a 1-over 73 on Thursday to sink four birdies against a single bogey on hole 15 to move into a tie for 46th with nine other players.

Cameron Tringale shot 1-under on both days and was especially hot on the greens on Friday, ranking 11th in strokes gained putting. The 34-year-old entered the British Open off a T6 at the Scottish Open, where he surprised the field by jump-starting Round 1 with a career-best 9-under 61 at the Renaissance Club last weekend.

However, in the third round, Tringale shot back-to-back bogeys to finish the day 4-over 74, putting him four strokes back of the lead.

Tringale’s irons were a problem on Friday at St. Andrews, while Horschel was excellent around the greens, ranking ninth in that category. He also ended Round 2 ranked Top 50 in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained tee to green.

The 35-year-old is trending in the right direction ahead of the weekend and will outperform his compatriot on Saturday.

Best odds: Billy Horschel over Cameron Tringale in R3 (-105 at DraftKings)

2022 Open Championship odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks in your region. Odds are best used between rounds. When available, our fair line is updated once per hour between 6 a.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo