Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now

I created this new thread because I got many complains the old one was to complex.

You can find it here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=36&sub=100703016

Please read the old thread for further explanations.

I will only write down the score to bet, the games and the stakes. Later on I will add the odds for the games.

All Correct Score bets are on the big betting exchange. Other bets will be on a small pool of traditionell bookmakers.

Some notices about the stakes to bet:
- One unit is the standard bet. For the tracking it equals 10 € / $ / £ .
- There will be half unit bets or even third or quarter bets for very high odds or more than one bet on a game.
- There will be bets with two unit or even more on very rentabel systems or when its not a correct score bet, f.e. a simple draw bet.

Another important thing: I will set two categoeries for tracking now. Normal picks, now named "European Picks" are based on systems which used the data of several different european leagues (up to 30 leagues). The other picks will be league specific, which means the system is only created for this league.

So far there were nearly only be "normal" picks, in the future there will be more and more league specific system - if they work nearly as good as the european systems...

The record @ 2010-03-16 19:00 CET is:

European Picks (EP):
645 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 533.88 after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
30 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 30 after 5.0 % commision

Picks for today will follow in a few minutes

Looking forward to the picks

Here it is...

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50
Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50
Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5
Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0

GL for all who follow... may all the strikers have a bad day today ;)

so you are predicting sheff united, reading and preston to win outright??

no, he is picking 0-0 FT score if I am not mistaken

yes its 0-0 on all games.

i dont understand y u think its a pick on the home team!? especially at these odds

Today a loosing day, with some bad luck:

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
- 10 Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50 - result: 0-1
- 10 Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50 - result: 0-2 (two late goals)

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
- 10 Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50 - result: 3-0
- 10 Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5 - result: 1-0 (85th minute)
- 10 Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0 - result: 2-2

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
50 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 50 € after 5.0 % commision

newkaminaintown???

just kiddin kamina, GL bud

easier to decipher, thats better kamina

Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5

Newcastle - Scunthorpe
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5

Newcastle - Scunthorpe
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

adding for newcastle game:
0,5 untis any unquoted @ 4.5

So are you saying Scunthorpe wins outright against Newcastle?

dunt understand lol u think grasshoppers games stays 0-0?

tip on betting goalless draws kamina, find a book that allows you to bet on their being 'NO GOALSCORER' in the match, that way if the only goal in the match is an own goal, you still win the bet.

kinda... actually i did not thought so, and as we see they had not. but my analysis shows me a big value in that constelation so the bet is placed on it. 

grasshoppers 0-0 the same thing. its defintely value in that. of course the chance is low but imagine f.e. there is one 0-0 in this game when they play 15 times and you got the odds on @ 18.50 than you have a total positve result.

look at the past result. last weekend we had win for a 0-0 @ odds of 19.0... also read the old threads starting post and you might understand what the whole thing is up to.

 

thanks for the tip! but as i think in the most cases there is anyway much more value in a betfair odd. if i have a 12.0 at betfair - 5 % commision its a real 11.45. The best bookmaker might have a 11 (!?) - i looked up a wsn.
When I look f.e. at the Arsenal game, I see a 26 for a 0-0 at betfair and a 16 at the best bookie...

 It might be interesting at the lower odds but at the first view it doesnt seem to me worth the effort. (research, split the money to different books, bet at bookies with a bad rating at sbr or where you limited or you had bad experiece)

but i would like to hear your opinion on that, i am open to it. which bookies are useful for that?

here is where  compared this market: https://www.wsn.com/football/uefa-europa-league/fulham_vs_juventus-turin-odds/first-goalscorer/

actually i dont get it 8[

you mean: new came in a "in town"?

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5 result: 2-0

Newcastle - Scunthorpe result: 3-0
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Any Unquoted = 0,5 @ 4.5
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
75 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 75 € after 5.0 % commision

most european and UK books do no goalscorer bets but if youre using betfair, youre right, you'll probably get marginally better odds.

well the odds for 0-0 are much higher and so there is much more value to find.

my software only can analyze for cs markets 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 2-0 and 2-1. Out of these six markets the 1-1 is by far the one with the lowest value. nearly always i create a system it has a better yield for 0-0 than for 1-1.

Since I was not happy about the late goals at the 0-0 picks I checked out how many 0-0 picks had at 0-0 at half time. There were 36 0-0 picks so far which which result 17 times 0-0 at half time. The real odds (after commision) at Betfair are slightly above 3.0 as could see so far, maybe around 3.20 in the middle. With the strike rate of so far of 47.22 % this would have been a yield of 50 % so far with flat betting.

The new system is quite simple: every game which is a 0-0 full time bet is also a half time 0-0 bet.

The tracking will be on one side the "normal betting" with different stakes and the on the other hand a chasing system with two stages.

Example with 3.20 Betfair / 3.10 real odds to win 50 €
A: risk 23.25 to win 50.00
B: risk 34.07 to win 73.25 (- 23.25 of A = 50.00)

If two bets in a row are lost its a total loss of 57.32 in this example. At a strike rate of 45% 0-0 at half time a lost serie should be the case in 30 %. In the other 70 % it would be a profit of 50 € .

3 * - 57.32  = - 172 €
7 * + 50.00 = + 350 €
= + 178

There will be several series at one time with different starting stakes like on the normal betting systems.

I dont like to chase more than two stages because I think its just too much stress for the mind having too much on one bet, even its more profit in the long term.

Lets see how it will work out.

0-0h/t, 0-0ft...............

constelation

betting 0-0

lets see

eeeeeeeeeeeeeekkkkkkk