Friday: Spain Copa del Rey Final

Coppa Del Rey write-up.....

Covers Posted Soccer: 149-121 +51.53units

REAL MADRID V ATLETICO MADRID OVER 3 -125 TO WIN 2 UNITS

We get a chance to see the tournament’s top two scorers in action on Friday with Atletico Madrid’s Diego Costa (8 goals) and Real Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo (7 goals).  This is a match that Real Madrid wants desperately to win given their shock loss to Dortumund in the UEFA Champions League and their second place finish to Barcelona in the domestic league thanks to a poor start to their season.

Let’s look at both teams Copa del Rey stats first;

Real Madrid: Goals scored 19 and 6 allowed in 8 matches for a gpg average of 3.125.  5 of those 8 games went over 2.5 goals including a 3-1 win over Barcenlona in the final leg of their semi-final.  They averaged over 2 goals per game and allowed an average of just under 1.  Anyone following Real Madrid football this year knows how hard they have found it to keep clean sheets.

Atlectic Madrid also played 8 games.  The over 2.5 was 4-4.  However, their last 2 games did see 3 and 4 goals respectively against a better defensive side in Sevilla.  They only failed to score in 1 of those 8 matches.  They scored 14 goals in those 8 games.

Given that this a domestic league Cup Final let’s look at how each team fared in La Liga this year.  Real Madrid had a +59 goal differential in the league while Atletico Madrid had a +32 goal differential.  

Real Scored 96 in 36 games for an average of 2.66 scored.  They allowed a goal a game on average (37) for a combined per game average total goals of 3.70.

Atletico Madrid scored 62 goals on the year for an average of 1.72 and allowed 30. 

Real Madrid is in great form at the moment, winning 12 of their last 14 and drawing 2.  Aside from last week’s 1-1 draw against Espanyol where many players were rested for this cup game, Real had been scoring goals almost at will beating Malaga, 6-2, Valadolid 4-3, Atletico Madrid 2-1, Real Betis 3-1, Athletic club 3-0 and Levanta 5-1.  Do you see the patern of many goals scored but the propensity to concede as well?  They have only 11 clean sheets in their 36 league games.  The over 2.5 is 25-11 for them on the season. (70% over)

Atletico Madrid’s form has been slipping. They are off a 2-1 loss to Barcelona, a 3-1 win to Celta de Vigo, 0-0 draw with Deportivo, 2-1 loss to Real Madrid, 1-0 win over Sevilla, 5-0 win over Granada and two draws to Valencia 1-1 and Getafe 0-0.  Their record over their recent span of 11 games is 4 wins, 3 losses and 4 draws.  To their credit they have 19 clean sheets in their 36 games in the league which gives them a defensive edge over Real Madrid.

...CONTINUED

This will essentially be a Madrid derby in the Copa final and the atmosphere will be electric with two teams that despise each other.

The game will be played at Real Madrid’s home stadium. The decision to hold the game there was made between Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and the Royal Spanish Football Federation. The decision to hold it at the Santiago Bernabéu as opposed to Atletico’s stadium comes down to money as Madrid’s park seats 25,000 more spectators which means significantly extra revenue for all involved. Therefore, this will essentially be a home game for Real Madrid so I also note they scored 63 goals in 18 home games for a 3.5 goal per game offensive output and a combined average total goals for their home games of 4.5.

The last 5 head to head visits from most recent include a 2-1 RM win, 2-0 RM win, 4-1 RM win, 4-1 RM win and a 2-1 RM win. As you can see, other than one game, Atletico has been able to crack Madrid for a goal in 4 of the last 5 meetings and in the past 5 games there have been 3 or more goals scored in 4 of them. Also, Real Madrid have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches against Atletico in all competitions. They know how to break down their defense.

Atletico's road games have averaged 2.11 combined goals make 3 GOALS a very probable outcome at minimum. However, there is no second chance so any team down a goal will be chasing the game.

Given the chippyness between these two teams and their propensity to take cards, (note the asian handicap on total cards is at 6.5 whereby a physical game is expected, this helps our cause as any carded players will have defend a little more open to avoid picking up a second yellow.

There is the clear factor that we must consider about Atletico Madrid’s best goals against record in La Liga however you should also take note of the fact that their form has slipped of late and the fact they allowed Sevilla to score 3 goals in 2 games against them in the semi-final of this tournament shows they are not impregnable at the back. They will be facing a very high powered offence that can score from anywhere on the pitch.

Here are two attack minded teams playing to win the Copa Del Rey. I Bottom line, expect both teams to hold nothing back and given the way Real Madrid have scored and conceded I see no reason why they can’t get the job done in a very entertaining affair. The fact that two of my spreadsheets though give me a 3-2 Real Madrid win and a 2-2 draw, I will not be betting them on the side. The other 2 projections are 3-1 for Real Madrid.

OVER 3 -125 is the play I locked in on Wednesday. Expect this to be higher by kick-off as 2 of my 4 books have already posted -130 on over 3

MODS PLEASE .... remove the spam in POST NUMBER 6 ....

I'm growing tired of these spam ads showing up in my threads.

Thank you again.

I agree with this usually---unless it is a very late movement.  Thoughts? 

Late movement guys is because the skys openned up in Madrid over night. .. it's col and wet today but the rain is expected to be over by 6pm local time and the pitch is ONE OF THE BEST in all of europe for drainage and playability.

Ask players and they will tell you they like slick fields as opposed to dry ones ... which is why you often see the pitches getting watered at half time of games.

The rain has brought money to the under but in my view won't make a diff.  Like I said, mahjority of rain expected to have stopped falling at game time and game temp will be very playable 7 degrees celcius.

Interesting in reading some media clippings... the fans love both these teams so much that this game might actually feel more like a friendly than a Copa del Rey final with the real enemy in Madrid not being either Atletico or Real but Barcelona,

Enjoy the match... my view of the game hasn't changed.  Wide open and entertaining affair. We just need the players to comply and bury the expected chances.

How can you tell when your battery in your wireless keyboard is dying?  When you start missing and doubling up letters!! sorry for the syntax in that prior post folks.