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Battler's NRL Round 13 (and State of Origin II)

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Posted: #1
YTD (69-74-2) - 6.97 units
 
I know, I know - get your shit together Battler
 
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Posted: #2

NSW


1. Brett Stewart

2. Jarryd Hayne

3. Mark Gasnier

4. Matt Cooper

5. Anthony Quinn

6. Greg Bird

7. Peter Wallace

8. Brett White

9. Danny Buderus (capt)

10. Craig Fitzgibbon

11. Willie Mason

12. Ryan Hoffman

13. Paul Gallen

 

Interchange:

 

14. Kurt Gidley

15. Anthony Tupou

16. Steve Simpson

17. Anthony Laffranchi.

 

No real surprises there. One forced change and one unforced change. Simpson is a bit of a bolter, but he has done the job plenty of times in the past and will give his all.

 
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Posted: #3
Queensland
 
1. Billy SLATER 
2. Darius BOYD 
3. Greg INGLIS
4. Brent TATE
5. Israel FOLAU
6. Darren LOCKYER (capt)
7. Johnathan THURSTON
8. Steven PRICE
9. Cameron SMITH
10. Petero CIVONICEVA
11. Michael CROCKER
12. Sam THAIDAY
13. Dallas JOHNSON
 
Interchange:
 
14. Karmichael HUNT
15. Ben HANNANT
16. Nate MYLES
17. Ashley HARRISON
 
Boyd in after another Hodges brainsnap. Price back in the lineup will help them, Charlie didn't do anything in game 1 and is not a representative starting front rower. Harrison for Lillyman, not much in that really. Obviously biggest inclusion for them is the classy number 6. NSW should run at him all day - he hasn't got that meathead Carroll standing inside him.
 
 
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Posted: #4
NSW playing only 1 prop  
(no one call Mason, Fitzgibbon or Simpson props please)
 
Surprised Hunt wasn't named on the wing for Qld so that they can carry an extra forward. It was only 18 months ago Hunt played wing in a GF winning team. I thought Qlds bench was very weak in game 1. Not a fan of Ashley Harrison
 
NSW may run at Lockyer, but he will probably have Crocker, Johnson or Thaiday playing the Carroll role
 
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Posted: #5
they obliviously want to play a wide expansive game like they did in game 1.
 
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I was surprised they didn't pick another prop, but then again, Simpson is basically a straight swap for Cross, who was hardly a dominant figure in game 1. I also think NSW won the middle battle, so I guess Bellamy and Co don't think they need another.
 
Hunt didn't play wing in the GF did he? Who played fullback?
 
I'm not sure why they picked Harrison either - I've watched a few Titans games this year and he hasn't done much at all.
 
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Posted: #7
Hodges played fullback at the end of '06. Hunt and Boyd were the wingers, Tate and Stagg the centres

If the weather continues like it has been in Brisbane then the expansive game is nullified to an extent. NSW have pretty much resigned themselves to losing Gasnier with Monaghan taking his spot, so the wide game will not be as effective.

Price is back and with Civoniceva will make a bigger impact as a pairing then what Petero did alone.


 
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Lines out tomorrow, but looking at the team sheets there are a few games that stick out. Only guessing possible lines:
 
Dragons (-8)
Warriors (-12)
Tigers (-10)
Parramatta (-8)
Gold Coast (-10)
 
Also like Newcastle and the Roosters, pending the pointspread.
 
 
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Posted: #9
Is SBW back for the Dogs? If he is and a couple of others are it will make that match interesting.

You may get better then 10 for the Tea and Toast, coming off consectutive away loses, at night in Melbourne (everyone will play the "cold factor" card)

Eagles at home with the Roosters missing most of their starting pack.
 
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SBW is out for a number of weeks as I understand. Utai, Holdsworth and Roberts named though.
 
The Titans play at Skilled.
 
Eagles at home yes, hence pending the pointspread. The Roosters second half against a full strength Eels side the other week was impressive.
 
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Titans at Skilled AGAIN?

A Manly team minus Stewart at Brookie in my eyes is much stronger then a Roosters team minus the Gibbon, Mason, Nate Dog, Tupou. Manly are not Parra. I think 8 will be a fair mark by the books

I haven't run my numbers yet but this is going to be hard
 
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Titans at home, yes.
 
A Manly team with Stewart were beaten at Brooky by St George. They did bounce back well last week though....
 
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Very good looking NSW team. Don't have a problem with Simpson's selection tbh even though he is lacking match practice as it's obvious Bellamy wants mobility over size hence both Kite and Bailey have been overlooked again. It worked brilliantly for them in game 1 with Smith and the QLD dummy half runners having no space to move because of the Blues mobility, can't take advantage of tired and big forwards when there is none in the Blues team.
 
Bellamy is most astute coach in the NRL for a reason. The presence of Lockyer is the only thing detering me at the moment for some NSW moneyline action.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

 The presence of Lockyer is the only thing detering me at the moment for some NSW moneyline action.

Don't let that hold you back

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Very good looking NSW team. Don't have a problem with Simpson's selection tbh even though he is lacking match practice as it's obvious Bellamy wants mobility over size hence both Kite and Bailey have been overlooked again.

I actually think it is stronger than game 1's squad, if Gasnier plays. IMO Gidley and Simpson > Hornby and Cross.

 
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I'm thinking St George is laying too many against Brisbane

Dragons fall into that "team on 5 day turnaround" category (3-12 against the spread this season) besides which brisbane historically has a terrific knack of lifting in these types of situations where origin players are absent

i also think any team with wendell sailor in it just flat out shouldn't be an 8.5 point favourite, nothing against 'dell' just the small matter of him not having played at this or pretty much any level of football for the last two years

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Aussie Battler:

Lines out tomorrow, but looking at the team sheets there are a few games that stick out. Only guessing possible lines:
 
Actual lines:
 
Dragons (-8) (-8.5)
Warriors (-12) (-10.5)
Tigers (-10) (-14)
Parramatta (-8) (-10)
Gold Coast (-10) (-14.5)
 
Also like Newcastle and the Roosters, pending the pointspread.
 

Thought the Roosters may have got a few more......

 
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Quote Originally Posted by Bull_Shark:

I'm thinking St George is laying too many against Brisbane

Dragons fall into that "team on 5 day turnaround" category (3-12 against the spread this season) besides which brisbane historically has a terrific knack of lifting in these types of situations where origin players are absent

i also think any team with wendell sailor in it just flat out shouldn't be an 8.5 point favourite, nothing against 'dell' just the small matter of him not having played at this or pretty much any level of football for the last two years

I see your point Bull Shark, but I think the number is about right. WIN will be rocking with everyone turning out to see Dell, who will be pumped to be back on TV, and while I certainly don't doubt the Broncos heart, they look very thin on paper. Their pack is still solid, but it is not a backline that would scare anybody.

 
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Manly (-3.5) (1)
 
I think this will only move, so I'll grab it now
 
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Warriors ml / Dragons ml / Tigers ml @ $1.97 (1)
 
 
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Round 12 Shits 'n giggles multi:
 
Warriors (-10.5)
Dragons ml
Knights (+12.5)
Eels ml
Tigers ml
 
@ $5.06 (0.6)
 
I WILL hit one of these before too long
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Bull_Shark:

I'm thinking St George is laying too many against Brisbane

Dragons fall into that "team on 5 day turnaround" category (3-12 against the spread this season) besides which brisbane historically has a terrific knack of lifting in these types of situations where origin players are absent

i also think any team with wendell sailor in it just flat out shouldn't be an 8.5 point favourite, nothing against 'dell' just the small matter of him not having played at this or pretty much any level of football for the last two years

An over-confident Dragons as favorities with no Gasnier

 
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Quote Originally Posted by SecondAgain:

An over-confident Dragons as favorities with no Gasnier

Aren't the Dragon's one of your power ranking sides who possibly aren't given the credit they deserve? I see no reason why they shouldn't beat a team with Marsh and Stagg as the halves.

 
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The mental side of the Dragons is never something I can understand. With some teams you know what to expect. The Dragons can easily win 24+ here, and they can easily struggle.
 
If the Bronco's can lift defensively they can be right in this match, esp if wet.
 
BTW, they have leapfrogged the Titans into 5th on the rankings, but wel behind the top 4
 
 
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Posted: #25
dragons always seem to lift when playing the broncos, last 5 games stands at dragons 5, broncos 0.

cant see broncos troubling dragons here. when they win , they seem to win big.
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