New England at Baltimore (12/03/2007)

The "invincible" New England Patriots showed some weakness last week, nearly losing outright as a 24.5 point favorite. Did the Eagles expose the game plan against New England? NO! Are the days of New England's 20+ point wins gone now? NO! Or will the mastermind Belichick take up the challenge and find a new way to destroy opponents? Of Course he will!! This game saw New England open up as 20.5 point road favorites - unheard of. The line has dropped to 18.5 which is still a ton to lay on the road. But, the Ravens offense is about as bad as it gets, ranked 24th in yards and 25th in points scored. New England, in contrast has the #1 offense in yards and points and a quarterback who is having the best season of any QB ever. The Pats are winning their games this year by an average score of 40 to 17. But they have allowed four of their last six opponents to reach 20+ points. Baltimore is a much better home team than they are on the road. At home they actually average 21 points per game and hold opponents to 18.6. New England has coverd the spread in nine of their last eleven as road chalk. Will they look to make a statement after last week's scare and roll up the score? Or will the Ravens, a good home team, find a way to cover this large number? Consider that home underdogs off a road blowout loss by 14+ points are 51-23 (69%) in December games. But the Pats are 13-4 ATS in their last seventeen games as a double-digit favorite and the Ravens are 1-9 ATS overall this season. As far as the total goals, New England is 9-2 OVER in all games this season including 6-0 OVER as a double-digit favorite. The UNDER has hit at a 72% clip in games with a total in this range (43-49) if one of the teams allowed 25+ points in two straight games and their opponent off two straight games in which 50+ points were scored.

 

Pats 48

Ravens 17