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Detroit at Boston (05/20/2008)

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Posted: #26

I think it's getting to the point where people are really underestimating boston a little too much.  Ya, maybe they'll be more tired, but with two days rest in between games i'm not sold that its THAT bad...

in matchups between these two teams, detroit 41.67 points in the first to 46.67 for boston.  in the games in boston led at half by scores of 52-45 and 47-37.  The first one, detroit came back, in the second one, they held court. and covered by a good margin.  Factor in that they are riding a high and are all in rythm from their sunday game 7 victory in the garden.  Just like they did in the first game against the lebrons (actually lost ATS by .5 but led by 4), I think that they will come out firing and get a lead early.  Also, the pistons frequently fall out of rhythm early in some games before making adjustments and pulling the W.  From there I don't know if I want to stick around to find out where this one goes.  If I'm anywhere near a computer, I may play in game but either way, I like

BOS -1 1Q

BOS -2.5 1st half

also, this is an eastern conference matchup at its best.  Defensive minded on both ends.  Both games in the garden this year went under the number at the time, as well as under the number they gave on this game.  With the public looking for value on that over, I'm liking the idea of sitting back until it moves up a bit more, then taking a hit at the under.  Free throw analysis on this one shows 68 for 93 overall between the two games for an average of 34 made, 46.5 taken, nothing too big so when these teams are having trouble scoring, the refs aren't helping them out too much. 

Under 174 (or more)

 
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Posted: #27
if i had to call the game, i'd be on detroit to put it together in the end and sneak out game 1, but instead, i'm probably just going to bet on the team that loses game 1 in game two.
 
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Posted: #28
3 units on Celtics -4.5
 
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Posted: #29
Ok so when I look back at the series between Orlando and Detroit.  In Game 3 the Pistons lost by 25 points @ ORL.  In Game 4 the Magic were only a Turkoglu shot at the end away from sending the series back to Detroit tied up.  So, when comparing ORL and BOS, I would give a major edge to the Celtics based on experience and the big 3.  Ray Allen can't possibly keep struggling as much as he did during the Cavs series and will eventually find his stroke.  With that said, the Cavs eliminated the Pistons last year with essentially a worse team then this year (The now have D. West, Big Ben, Wally).  So, all of this adds up to the Celtics having roughly a ten point edge or so on the Pistons.  Also, who knows how much the hamstring will bother Billups in this first game?  It could be a huge factor.  With this said my picks go as follows:

This game will go way over the total of 174.
And BOS -4.5  for two or three units is the nuts.
 
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Posted: #30
Well, I must say first how about those Spurs?   I didn't win $ because I had that pick on a parlay with others(baseball/hockey) but I had the Spurs ML correct..... I stupidly did the over 183 when I knew better since it was hard for these 2 teams to exceed 180 but, I expected the usual "pop" when 2 teams are really coming down to the wire but NO choked on FG% and even SA stopped hitting for the most part toward the end of the game but I was surprised the weren't trying to burn up the shot clock---SA went ahead and played aggressively for the open shot 4th quarter(and missed a few more than we would want to cover an "Over")....
 
I did pick DET ML for hockey and the under which resulted in a push... Again, the baseball picks on my parlay screwed me up...  I do small bets $5-$20 on 4-6 picks--I live in Vegas.. You can do an 8 pick here on 8 Baseball bets and it varies in payout but $5 can win you like $1000--those are fun....
 
I like the PISTONS at least to hold the spread if not ML....  The Over/Under seems tricky but I bet it goes UNDER.--these two teams will play alot like BOS/CLE......  I do say that PISTONS WILL WIN THIS SERIES WITH THE CELTICS--THERE, I LAYED IT! << stolen phrase
 
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Posted: #31
In Game 3 the Pistons lost by 25 points @ ORL. In Game 4 the Magic were only a Turkoglu shot at the end away from sending the series back to Detroit tied up.
 
In game 3 Boston lost by 24 points @ Cleveland, AND they couldnt win game 4.
 
 
You also failed to mention Detroit lost Billups to injury early in game 3 9tends to explain the final scoreline), and had to win game 4 without him (tends to explain why the Magic were able to stay close at the end).
 
You gonna compare apples, then compare with all the facts on the table, and then take the blinkers off your eyes.
 
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Posted: #32
  Pistons ML

__---_-_---_- __---_-__---_- __---_-
 
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Posted: #33
who really has anything on the over and under????
if you do have anything on it please let me know..
 i think i got the winner but i looking for something to tease with it ,, like the totak need help
 
 
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Posted: #34
THATS TOTAL!!!
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

DETROIT +4.5
DETROIT ML
OVER 173.5
 
AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR, THREE OF THE BIGGEST CURRENCIES ARE EXPERIENCE, CONFIDENCE AND REST - AND THE PISTONS HAVE ALL THREE GOING FOR THEM HEADING INTO GAME 1.
THEY ARE STILL THE BULLIES OF THE EAST, BORDERING ON COCKY , BUT THEY SHOWED THE MAGIC EVEN WITHOUT CHAUNCEY WHY THEY ARE SO TOUGH TO BEAT. THE EXTRA DAYS OF REST WATCHING BOSTON SPEND EVERY OUNCE OF GATORADE STRUGGLING TO BEAT A ONE MAN TEAM SHOULD FULLY INSPIRE THE TEAM-ORIENTED PISTONS TO GRIND THE CELTICS INTO THEIR OWN PARKAY FLOOR, AND HAVING WON MULTIPLE TIMES IN BOSTON ALREADY THIS SEASON, THERE IS NO MAJOR HOME COURT ADVANTAGE IN THIS GAME...OVER THE PAST 5+ YEARS, SEEMS LIKE THE PISTONS ARE THE MOST FOCUSED ROAD TEAM THE DEEPER THE PLAYOFFS GET IN THEIR CONFERENCE.
THE MORE PREPARED TEAM WILL WIN HERE, AND THAT TEAM IS THE PISTONS.
WITH A LINE THIS LOW, I'LL TAKE MY SHOT WITH THE OVER WITH THESE 2 GOOD FREE THROW SHOOTING TEAMS WHERE I SEE MANY FOULS CALLED AS THE DEFENCE WILL BE OVERLY EAGER AND LIKELY GET MANY CHEAP, HAND CHECK FOULS.
 
 TO ME, THE TRAIN IS MAKING $ AGAIN, ALL ABOARD...


Pistons won ONE game in Boston, the Celtics won the other TWO games this season against the Pistons.  The one game they lost was without Cassell and PJ Brown, two guys who are major contributors in the playoffs.  If anything, the Celtics have the bigger advantage because they won big in Detroit while the Pistons won a close game in Boston behind ridiculous 3-point shooting.

As far as rest, it will probably help the Pistons a little bit towards the END of the series.  Not right now.  Sitting around at home waiting for the next round to begin is not going to change the fact that they are still a pretty old team.  When the Pistons got REST this season (3+ days off in between games) they went an incredible 1-6 ATS.  Now they have to work Billups back into the lineup meaning there will be some minute mixing issues as it's impossible to know how healthy he really is during game play.

In those regular season games, the main reason the Celtics won was the rebounding.  They had a huge advantage in two of the games, and out-rebounded the Pistons in all 3 games.  When the Pistons have struggled this playoff year it has been because of teams getting offensive rebounds and 2nd chance points.  The Magic didn't have a lot of that because they are an OUTSIDE shooting team.  The Celtics bang it inside more and drive to the hoop...causing foul trouble.

Basically my point is that the Celtics are a bad MATCH-UP for the Pistons personnel wise.  If Big Baby can have half the impact he did coming off the bench, it will be a successful series for the C's.  Add in the fact that the NBA does NOT want a Spurs/Pistons Finals, and the C's should be looking pretty good.  Like I said before, UNTIL THE CELTICS LOSE AT HOME, THEY ARE THE FAVORITES TO WIN THE TITLE.  They aren't 0-6 on the road right now, they are 0-0 at home and on the road, same as the Pistons, Lakers, and Spurs.

Celtics -2 1st half
UNDER 88  1st half
OVER 173.5 game
Possible Celtics ML
 
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Posted: #36
CMJohnson1- I agree with most of what your sayin, but I wouldnt call Cassell a "major contributor"- if anything hes a liability, like Lugo for the Sox, or Tavarez, who luckily they just dumped. Brown maybe, but not Cassell.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Unit_G:

  Pistons ML

__---_-_---_- __---_-__---_- __---_-


Cavs tried to build a court for King LeBron.........they were missing some swords at the round table.......Detroit isnt.
 
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Posted: #38
Pistons +4.5(buying hook)- 3 units
Under First Half 88- 10 units
 
 
 
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Posted: #39
HERE YOU GO GUYS AND PLEASE DON'T FOLLLOW MY PICKS BECAUSE I'M NOT THAT GREAT IN B-BALL AND PLUS I DON'T WANT TO HERE FROM ANYONE... GOT ME .... SO YOU MAY WANT TO GO THE OTHER WAY MY FRIENDS HA HA ..
IIKEING THE UNDER IN THE 1ST QUARTER WHICH IV'E GOT IT AT 44 U-115AND THE OVER IN THE 2ND QUARTER WHICH IS 43.5 RIGHT NOW,SO THAT MY PICKS AND THEY MAY GO 0-2 OR 2-0 OR 1-1 ,,WHO THE FUCK KNOWS
 
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Posted: #40
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!! WHO EVERY YOU F----CKING TOOK...
 
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Posted: #41
Bets are in
 
Pistons (+5)
Over 174
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by W8LIFTER:

DEEEEEEETROIT +5  Well rested and ready to take care of business in Beantown! Count it!!!

I am following Writeuplifter on this one. She is on an amazing 5-9 run!

Middle School Rocks!

PISTONS +5

 
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Posted: #43
Total set to low[173.5], over she goes.
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:




When the Pistons got REST this season (3+ days off in between games) they went an incredible 1-6 ATS. 

That's an awesome stat, CMJ.  I would like to add that a lack of rest should not be much of a factor for the Celtics.  I mean....Paul Pierce certainly should be tired and banged up.  But KG and Ray Allen didn't do shit in Game 7, so I figure they gotta be pretty well rested for this one.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They will be feeling each other out in the first game, and I honestly believe it will be grind it out BORING basketball.  Waiting on nightridah to confirm before I bet the farm but I would say the plays are

BOS/DET  UNDER           and

CELTICS  - 4 1/2 

 
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Posted: #45
DETROIT (67 - 26) at BOSTON (74 - 22) - 5/20/2008, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the conference finals over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games this season.
DETROIT is 54-39 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 55-39 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points this season.
DETROIT is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.
 
 
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons 
DETROIT is 8-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons 
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
My early Lean is Boston. Detroit will need to find there game in round 1. Boston is still on a roll.
 
BOSTON ML
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by GRIFFDOG11:

  If you could read Dumass, you would have read that I did not take Boston due to my heart dumass. But if you made money on cleveland kudos to you, don't assume I took Boston just beacause I'm from Boston you stupid fuck. if you read any threads yesterday, you would see I did not take the celts u stupid fuck.   as for this game you stupid fuck, I would take detroit, so load your stupid as up on the celtics you stupid fuck. Learn to read posts you stupid fuck.      PRONK-- had to say fuck cleveland one last time, sorry.     except for this dumass FPRONK.

I did read your posts. You took Boston because your not well educated on hoops. Just be quiet!

Nice language! By the way, Ill be turning your posts over to the ADMIN. Buh bye!!

 
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Posted: #47
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
A Lot of D in this game tonight!
 
UNDER
 
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Posted: #48
As much as I hate going the same way as a couple of the posters above....Im going with Detroit plus 4.5 and under 174. Good Luck!!
 
 
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Posted: #49

I was having a difficult time with this game, looking at it from every angle and debating not playing it at all. In the playoffs, I'm usually more about gauging emotions. In this case that came out equal because I have Detroit extremely rusty after long layoff (and even more so for Billups) but Boston is emotionally drained from another 7th game and only 1 day's rest.

Then I started looking for anomalies in the stats. Who is better, Boston as a 4-5.5 pt favorite or Detroit as a 4-5.5 pt dog (Boston is by far by the way), then ATS After Win, After Loss, Record based on Days Rest, ATS Home Record vs +.500, Away vs +.500, etc. etc. Nothing was giving me a solid reason to go with either team... 

Nothing really struck me until I noticed this:

Overall, Boston is only 23-21 vs. +.500 opponents and 31-14 against -.500 opponents. Detroit is the opposite, going 26-16 against +.500 opponents and 22-22 against -.500 opponents.

What's my point you ask? Boston beats who they are supposed to beat and beats them badly, but has trouble against the more talented teams (at least ATS). Detroit on the other hand gets all geeked up for the good teams and takes mental nights off against inferior opponents (at least ATS).

And although it's not a huge hook to hang my hat on, since I am playing games based on the point spread outcome, not who is going to win, I'm taking Detroit in this one. +5 

 

 
 
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Posted: #50
CK & STYLES picks:
 
NBA : UNDER
 
MLB : Astros, Brewers, Detroit -1.5
 
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