Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
great work
you talked yesterday about maybe sharing your handicapping thought process. hockey is always tough for me but i dont put much cash on it - just enjoy the action. I want to get better so always like to pick people's brain - guys that know what they are doing.
What is your process? i.e. what must you look at to help make the decision? What are underrated and overrated capping angles in your view? My buddy Fade A Friend likes to look at who played back to back nights, who the stars play for, if the 3rd line center is out, etc....that cant work. I know what sneaky things work in football but not hockey. HELP ! 
So far i am a bit below .500 but want to get past that hump. I look at H/A record, recent schedule such as 4 g in 6 nights or if they played a rival last game, goalies dont get too hung up about it, PP/SH stats....Not sure what I am missing.
THANKS
Thanks for the post...To answer your questions regarding overrated and underrated angles....the most overrated angle, by far, is home ice advantage. Visiting hockey teams win the highest percentage of games more than any other major sporting venue. We, as a casual gambler, like to think the home team has an edge soley on fan base but the true home ice advantage comes from players understanding the dimensions of the arena....the ice surface, how the boards will respond, how the glass will respond, etc.. All ice surfaces are different from rink to rink which is why the head equipment manager is so important. The intriquite details of rocking a players skate blade from a radius of 3 to 2, for example, is done in relation to the comfort of a players playing surface. So, as a casual gambler, it IS important to note what players are most productive from arena to arena as well as noting how well a goaltender handles the puck in relation to how lively the boards might be, etc.. Another overrated angle is capping a game based on the oddsmakers set line. If there is any professional sport in which oddsmakers are NOT sharp, it is hockey. So many novice gamblers will cap a hockey game based on an oddsmakers set line rather than capping the game and then taking advantage of the line. Oddsmakers have a difficult time capping the NHL because more than any other sport, games in the NHL are often won by momentum and emotion rather than statistics and numbers. Which is why I absolutely despise someone telling me, for example, St Louis has won the last 8 out 10 games in Detroit going back to 2010, etc.. These type of stats have absolutely no bearing on my wagers. Though trends in hockey aren't as important to me as, say, baseball or football, trends in which I do take an interest include faceoffs won. When handicapping, I definitely like to see what teams hold a higher percentage of faceoffs with their centers because, let's face it, a high number of goals are scored off the draw. Another trend I'm interested in is a teams offensive strategy and the productivity of SOG/G. A strong relationship exists between a teams SOG average and the teams producivity of their 2nd and 3rd line. Let's face it, every team in the NHL has a top line that is capable of producing but what sets teams apart is the ability of the 2nd and 3rd line to produce. So, when capping, I am certainly interested in a teams depth chart. Another obvious angle that we all consider is the productivity of goaltending. The goaltender is the only athlete in any team sport that is influential to the outcome of a game for its entire duration. Save% is one stat that I will acknowledge and instead of looking at saves for the entire season, I like to see what the goaltender has done for the last few games because, again, hockey is more about rhythm than anything else....kind of a "what have you done for me lately" approach. Since I follow the game closely, I'll look at the goaltenders weakness...how does he handle the puck, does he have quick feet, does he have a quick glove, how does he handle the low stick side......and then I'll look at the opponents snipers....are they heavy on right handed shots, left handed shots...do these teams like to shoot from the perimeter or do they play in front of the net....how do these goaltenders respond in traffic, etc... One other overrated angle is b2b games especially early in the season. I'm only concerned with the condition of the goaltender and, obviously, who's starting in goal. One of the more underrated angles is the officiatig crew. NHL officials have personalities no different than other sporting officials....some will let you play more of a physical style and others will call the game tightly which is to the advantage of a more finesse team style. Regarding finesse teams and officiating, I take interest in knowing how each teams power plays and penalty killing units are performing....a no brainer that needs no further explanation. Another underrated angle is the head coaching IQ. How many fuckking times have we been burned on a wager because the head coach makes a boneheaded move at a critical time in the game? I certainly factor in coaching styles when looking at head to head matchups on a particular evening. My favorite three favorite coaches of all time are Scottie Bowman, Pat Quinn and Mike Keenan. They haven't always won because, frankly, they haven't always had the best talent. However, from a tactical standpoint, not too many coaches are sharpr than they.
amd 
I like both picks brudder and wish you BOL
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