Full Time Job

You could always be one of those guys that sells his picks if you get really good too.

My mom's bf gave me 500$ cause he just keeps seeing me win and he wants me to put his money on the same picks that I would bet on.

wow, 10% of bankroll on a game.  good work.

Yeah but then you'll have to leave this wonderful place called Covers.

While it is fun to increase your bankroll by 1025% ( wonder which bank offers that kind of interest rate ) , it's only relevant to discuss it after a long period of time or the minute you call it quits and actually withdraw the money.

Kind of like a mutual fund. No need to go check out how much your money is worth every day. Instead, what is relevant is how much the money is worth after long-term growth or the day you decide to cash it back into your account.

Lippsman - No one can claim that using a system is a way to win long term. I think more about it as a way to build up a bankroll. You ride it till it's working  and you kill it once it starts to crash. Believing it's gonna work out long term is foolish and naive.

Always interesting to read your stuff, Lippsman .

About this and relating back to the risky system strategy. The key word here is probability IMO. Everything you said is true Lipps and can be deduced based on the relevant probabilities in relation to the system but then again, that doesn't explain why some people can do great using it and knowing when to get out.

If I'm planning to cash on the NHL 3 game home chase system thats 42 - 0 so far, I don't need anyone to tell me to head for the hills once a couple of chases have lost completely. I'll be gone myself.  Same thing is too many rules are being changed.

The concept that everything will even out is a given in any sport. But, why would I not ride the trend until it does even out. The point is, someone will start a system based on a trend ( noticed early on during the season ) and will make a profit by following it. All I'd need is a couple of strict guidelines which I'd change as few times as I possible can and a clear-cut objective.

Why is this considered to be blind and non efficient. Like I said, I won't consider this as a long term strategy but rather a bankroll builder.

I hear ya Lippsman, but gotta point out that the rate at which systems go south can also be controlled by the money management system being used and the initial restraints so then again, its something to keep in mind before even starting.

Just wanted to point all this stuff out since it's basically always been one-sided in every discussion about strategy and betting philosophy.

While your buyer-beware disclaimer is very appropriate, I really respect those that have the guts to put forward a winning system and have the control/ self-restraint to know when to get out once a number of units has been won. This usually doesn't take a lot of time so it's usually before the system crashes down. If not, add another chapter to the Systems are Crap book.

I do not make a living off capping (although I do make decent money). However, I do currently make a living off of playing poker, I'm a college student in a low cost of living town so my total expenses is about 2.5k a month including tuition, etc. My profit after taxes on poker is approximately 3k. The cons in making a living on poker I feel would be quite similar to the downs associated with making a living capping these include but are not limited to.

1) Whether you're married, dating people have close family or whatever, there is a natural stigma associated with this kind of living.
     I've had more than one girl completely have no interest in me after she found out I made a living off of poker (I don't imagine sports betting would be much different). Also, many members of my family even after explanation do not support what I do. My father is very supportive of me, however my mother although I have shown her all my past performances still believes the house wins in the long run in poker (she just doesn't get I'm not playing against the house).

2) The career involves awkward hours that make sustaining relationships hard.

    The best action during the week in brick and mortar poker is late night 8pm to 5am usually. With the exception of the two days I don't play which are Sundays and Mondays, I have very limited windows to carry on friendships and relationships. Capping, if you want to be serious about it would also involve akward late night hours to catch the best lines. Many lines come out from midnight up until 5am or so, this means you not only have to stay up to get the lines but stay up even later to cap the games, which leads to a cycle of sleeping during the day and being a wake at night, a cycle which I assure is not much fun.
    Furthermore, if you plan to cap football, this means having to stay in or at the least no heavy drinking on Friday and Saturday night. This is the same situation I run into with poker, the best action is on Friday and Saturday nights, which is usually when my friends are going out and I can't join them, thus leading to what I feel sometimes is a lacking social life.

3) You do not have a guaranteed paycheck, no benefits, no insurance, no paid leave as you would get with other careers.

    This hurts more than anything else. I pay for my own insurance, when I'm sick I lose money. Worst off, if you have a bad run you've worked 50 to 100s of hours while not only not seeing a profit but also seeing a loss. The worst run I've had in poker lasted a little over a month and I lost about 3k, I had personal problems in my life that were affecting my play, combined with bad luck led to me losing nearly half my savings. I actually had to cash out some of my capping bankroll to cover any emergency that might occur until I built my savings back up. If you want to do this for a living you have to come to terms with working hundreds of hours just to see a loss.

4) Poker is no longer very enjoyable for me.
    It's kind of hard to explain this last point, it's not that I don't enjoy playing poker, but I can never get back the excitement of when I first started playing 8-10 years ago for five bucks with friends. I simply can't play for low limits and enjoy it anymore, my enjoyment only comes out of grinding money and hopefully one day saving up enough to really take a shot at going big.

The best advice I can give you, again similar to poker. Start with a small roll and build it up. If you make enough in the long run to build a serious roll with smart, patient play. Then, this in itself should be enough evidence that you can do it for a living. However, I would not fall into the mistake of if you do good for a few months then add more money and play for more. Ride it for a season or two, prove yourself to have consistent numbers and then take your shot.
    But, always consider your family and your loved ones and what it is that you enjoy in life and how capping will affect this. Hope this helps.

sulfurboy....appreciate the insight.

i can't imagine ever not enjoying poker. :)

 

 

mr lippsman... I have great respect for you and enjoy reading your posts/picks which, in my opinion are not frequent enough...

eli-- I respect your love for numbers and systems and believe that all things can be achieved with math.

If I may add my 2cents, I am finding that, in my case, systems work sometimes but they are no substitute for watching and enjoying games and using the incredible computer between your ears to decipher what it all means. let your mind tell you when a game  is priced  wrong and use math to confirm.

as for 10% on 1 game --- very stupid to put it bluntly.


starting with only $500
if you could make 1% a week-- in 10 years you would have $88,325

if you could increase that to 2%--- you would have 14.8 million

ITS A MARATHON!!!! not a sprint

GL all

listen to flutie... itd be too stressful.

That said, I hope you try, and post all your plays and our bankroll.... just for kicks

That sounds exactly right. This is turning out to be a great thread.

Haven't read everyone's post, just a few.

Anybody who even asks this question out loud has no business doing this full time, no joke and no disrespect intended.

 

yes its true most of the girls cannot stand us playing poker and handicapping but i[ve dated several who understood how much profit u can make in this market... i mean think about it, if ur getting over a 12% return investment from handicapping  you are doing exceptionally well.. yes, i feel that if your disciplined in money management and TIME management, you can do it for a living..but a couple of you guys made a very good point...If u do this full time, the fun is automatically taken out because u depend 100% on your income on wagering sports..i would get a little job on the side to at least pay the bills and the stress level at the job has to be low

I live in Vegas. I work in the Casino Industry, but a good portion of my income comes from sportsbetting.  I have to keep a job. In the past i've relied soley on betting for income and my life turned to shit. I won money, but I turned into money grubbing degenerate. your girlfriend, friends, family kinda become a side note in your life because your become consumed with it.    You got to be a complete sicko to do this shit for a living.