No over analyzing here! Cardinals won't be playing in 75 degree weather, perfect turf and no wind this week. They will be going to Cleveland (the mistake by the lake) and Cleveland can run the ball and ZONA won't be able to handle them. The weather forecast is for 15 -25 mph winds, Browns cover easily, bet it early before the line changes!
No over analyzing here! Cardinals won't be playing in 75 degree weather, perfect turf and no wind this week. They will be going to Cleveland (the mistake by the lake) and Cleveland can run the ball and ZONA won't be able to handle them. The weather forecast is for 15 -25 mph winds, Browns cover easily, bet it early before the line changes!
Hopefully the Browns injury report is improved from last week. I'm sure the Browns are a little deflated as well knowing they lost a game very late that they could have won vs LA. They left it all on the field and this has the makings of a let down spot for them.
The Browns D gave up 49 pts on Sunday because they're missing key guys and with Mayfield playing hurt, they're out good protection for him on that side of the ball. ARZ has an equally potent attack to LA's; I'm weary of laying points with a team that is a bit fragile. Hunt may have a big game but ARZ can counter that through the air.
I'm a Cleveland fan but Sunday's loss leaves me shaken and stirred. Hopefully the injury report is not crazy bad by Saturday...
Hopefully the Browns injury report is improved from last week. I'm sure the Browns are a little deflated as well knowing they lost a game very late that they could have won vs LA. They left it all on the field and this has the makings of a let down spot for them.
The Browns D gave up 49 pts on Sunday because they're missing key guys and with Mayfield playing hurt, they're out good protection for him on that side of the ball. ARZ has an equally potent attack to LA's; I'm weary of laying points with a team that is a bit fragile. Hunt may have a big game but ARZ can counter that through the air.
I'm a Cleveland fan but Sunday's loss leaves me shaken and stirred. Hopefully the injury report is not crazy bad by Saturday...
couldnt believe they were a fg favourite when i looked, had them as a field goal dog and a decent ML...wouldnt be happy betting them as favourites at all...
couldnt believe they were a fg favourite when i looked, had them as a field goal dog and a decent ML...wouldnt be happy betting them as favourites at all...
The line tells you how to bet, Cleveland -3 will generate the response the bookies want Arizona money. this game reminds me of the Miami LV game a few weeks ago, the line was -4 and looked to easy LV just beat Ravens and Steelers, Miami with a backup QB. When it looks to easy, go the other way. Cleveland covers and it might be double digits.
The line tells you how to bet, Cleveland -3 will generate the response the bookies want Arizona money. this game reminds me of the Miami LV game a few weeks ago, the line was -4 and looked to easy LV just beat Ravens and Steelers, Miami with a backup QB. When it looks to easy, go the other way. Cleveland covers and it might be double digits.
So right. Even Cleveland's coaches don't trust the Little Baker Boy 3rd &10 and they run the ball. And Baker Boy's last drive was pathetic. Cardinals +3 bought the half.
So right. Even Cleveland's coaches don't trust the Little Baker Boy 3rd &10 and they run the ball. And Baker Boy's last drive was pathetic. Cardinals +3 bought the half.
AZ local/fan here. Chandler Jones is out and that's going to show on our pass rush. You talk about Cleve run game but AZ has been great at stopping the run. Once again could be affected by Jones being out, maybe. TE Max Williams is out for the season, this is HUGE! He bailed us out of so many 3rd downs and games. Our 3time pro bowl C R.Hudson got hurt, should be good to go but something to watch. Also note that AZ seems to play to their competition, done this for years. I've made big $ on AZ this year. I do not have them winning this game. I honestly feel like I see this team clearer than other ppl do.
AZ local/fan here. Chandler Jones is out and that's going to show on our pass rush. You talk about Cleve run game but AZ has been great at stopping the run. Once again could be affected by Jones being out, maybe. TE Max Williams is out for the season, this is HUGE! He bailed us out of so many 3rd downs and games. Our 3time pro bowl C R.Hudson got hurt, should be good to go but something to watch. Also note that AZ seems to play to their competition, done this for years. I've made big $ on AZ this year. I do not have them winning this game. I honestly feel like I see this team clearer than other ppl do.
There is nothing fishy about this line. The sports books use power ratings to make their lines. They give an average of about 3 points to the homes team. I'll use Jeff Sagarin's ratings from USA Today for an example.
Arizona 25.22 Cleveland 24.45
Give Cleveland 3 points for being at home, making their rating 27.45.
Cleveland 27.45 Arizona 25.22
Cleveland -2.23 should be the line for this game, using these power ratings.
There are other factors that are used in addition to a team's power ratings to make a line, such as public perception, recent performance, importance of game, injuries, match ups, etc. Home field advantage for a non divisional game is generally considered to be stronger than it is for a divisional game. Given that the "Dawg Pound" is considered a difficult venue for a visiting team to play in, Cleveland -3, is a perfectly logical line for this game.
This is a very basic, but pretty accurate way to figure a line for a game. Of course, it depends on how strong your power ratings are. Most cappers use more than one set of ratings to analyze a game, being aware of strengths and weaknesses with each set of ratings. I've got one set of ratings that I use strictly to predict what the line will be for an upcoming game, as it is seldom off by more than a point. A team's power rating is adjusted throughout the season based on their performance. Different handicappers use different statistics to make their own power ratings based on the factors they deem to be most important. There is a lot more that goes into the making of a line, but I've outlined some basic elements of how it is done.
I apologize to the experienced handicappers on the board for boring you with such elementary concepts of handicapping, but apparently, a lot of people around here have no idea at all of how a line is arrived at for a game. Hopefully, a better understanding of what goes into the making of a point spread will help a few people to look at sports handicapping mathematically, instead of believing in staged games and "fishy" lines when they don't understand something. I've worked in the gaming industry in Las Vegas for 36 years and believe me, the books get just as scared of losing money as the players do. Sometimes, more so.
There is nothing fishy about this line. The sports books use power ratings to make their lines. They give an average of about 3 points to the homes team. I'll use Jeff Sagarin's ratings from USA Today for an example.
Arizona 25.22 Cleveland 24.45
Give Cleveland 3 points for being at home, making their rating 27.45.
Cleveland 27.45 Arizona 25.22
Cleveland -2.23 should be the line for this game, using these power ratings.
There are other factors that are used in addition to a team's power ratings to make a line, such as public perception, recent performance, importance of game, injuries, match ups, etc. Home field advantage for a non divisional game is generally considered to be stronger than it is for a divisional game. Given that the "Dawg Pound" is considered a difficult venue for a visiting team to play in, Cleveland -3, is a perfectly logical line for this game.
This is a very basic, but pretty accurate way to figure a line for a game. Of course, it depends on how strong your power ratings are. Most cappers use more than one set of ratings to analyze a game, being aware of strengths and weaknesses with each set of ratings. I've got one set of ratings that I use strictly to predict what the line will be for an upcoming game, as it is seldom off by more than a point. A team's power rating is adjusted throughout the season based on their performance. Different handicappers use different statistics to make their own power ratings based on the factors they deem to be most important. There is a lot more that goes into the making of a line, but I've outlined some basic elements of how it is done.
I apologize to the experienced handicappers on the board for boring you with such elementary concepts of handicapping, but apparently, a lot of people around here have no idea at all of how a line is arrived at for a game. Hopefully, a better understanding of what goes into the making of a point spread will help a few people to look at sports handicapping mathematically, instead of believing in staged games and "fishy" lines when they don't understand something. I've worked in the gaming industry in Las Vegas for 36 years and believe me, the books get just as scared of losing money as the players do. Sometimes, more so.
And a safety (dumbass call) throw a backwards pass in your own endzone up 14-0 gave LV the win, without the safety Miami wins in regulation. I would fire the offensive coordinator for that stupid play!
And a safety (dumbass call) throw a backwards pass in your own endzone up 14-0 gave LV the win, without the safety Miami wins in regulation. I would fire the offensive coordinator for that stupid play!
Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. High near 60F. Winds WNW at 20 to 30 mph. Weather in Cleveland for the game, my bottom line is lets see the fair weather Cardinals respond to adverse weather conditions, give me the running team! IF Cardinals win, more power to them but I don't see it.
Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. High near 60F. Winds WNW at 20 to 30 mph. Weather in Cleveland for the game, my bottom line is lets see the fair weather Cardinals respond to adverse weather conditions, give me the running team! IF Cardinals win, more power to them but I don't see it.
Nick Chubb has been ruled out for the game on Sunday...Chubb is dealing with a calf injury and Hunt has a wrist and knee ailment, according to the official injury report. Looks like Kareem Hunt will start though...backup running back Demetric Felton will get some touches no doubt.
I still like the Browns in this situational spot...
Nick Chubb has been ruled out for the game on Sunday...Chubb is dealing with a calf injury and Hunt has a wrist and knee ailment, according to the official injury report. Looks like Kareem Hunt will start though...backup running back Demetric Felton will get some touches no doubt.
I still like the Browns in this situational spot...
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