X'S SEASON LONG NFL THREAD

NY JETS +1.31 over New England

What we have here is a week one complete overreaction to both the Patriots and the Jets and the result is an overlay. In fact, the negative overreaction to the Jets is magnified since they played on Monday night and the whole country witnessed they couldn’t move five yards. However, that was the first game of the year and it came against the stifling defense of the Ravens. The Pats defense is nowhere near in the same class as Baltimore’s “D”. Mark Sanchez has ice in his veins and won’t be shook up one bit after a lousy performance. In fact, this guy has always responded with a good game after a bad one and takes a huge step down in class against this very average defense. The Patriots blew out the Bengals 38-24 and way too much credit was given to them. The Bengals failed to show up in the first half (they were down 24-0) but let’s not ignore the fact that Cinci outscored them 24-14 after that and that Carson Palmer shredded the defense for 345 yards through the air. The Jets defense is in the top three in the league and Tom Brady and company are going to meet a ton more resistance in this one. In fact, if this were a week one matchup, the Jets and not the Patriots would be favored by three and there is just no way one week warrants a six-point difference in the line. Wrong side favored and you can keep the points. Jets outright. Play: N.Y. Jets +1.31 (Risking 2 units). 

CLEVELAND –2 over Kansas City

Arrowhead Stadium was electric last Monday Night and the atmosphere was as intense as any playoff game, Super Bowl, or prizefight in the last decade. The Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Chargers in what had to be considered the franchises biggest win in five years. Make no mistake, the Chiefs were lucky beyond lucky. The failed to score in the second half and its three scores came on a 56-yard run, a punt return for a TD and an interception that set the offense up with first and goal. Absolutely everything went right for the Chiefs including a defensive stance at the end of the game when Bolts were at the Chiefs five-yard line with a minute to go in regulation. Fact is, the offense was brutal and so was the play calling. It was run-run-pass-punt for the Chiefs all game long. Matt Cassel had 68 total yards through the air and if you take away Jamal Charles 56-yard run, he and Thomas Jones ran for 76 yards. Now, after a hugely emotional win on a Monday night, the Chiefs will travel to play a Browns team that lost in Tampa but were by far the better squad. The Brownies didn’t lose to TB, they beat themselves. The Browns are so much better than they’re getting credit for. They started to come alive in the final month of last season and they actually looked good last Sunday but the score is not reflective of that. They outgained the Bucs 340-288 and that’s after turning the ball over five times. The Brownies defense was rock solid after being put in tough situations time and time again. Whether it’s Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center this week, it’s not going to matter. The Chiefs are extremely ripe to get beat and perhaps more than any team in the business, K.C. needs major improvements on both sides of the ball. A Brownies squad that knows they let one slip away exposes those serious Kansas City flaws here. Play: Cleveland -1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).   

DENVER –3½ +1.02 over Seattle

We’ll stick to our overreaction theory here after the Seahawks punished the 49ers last weekend. It was a nice win but it was a win based more on San Francisco’s inefficiency as oppose to Seattle’s strong play. The 49ers should’ve been up by 17 points 20 minutes into the game and when they failed to capitalize, the Seahawks pounced. Big deal. This visitor has no running game. They have more new and unproven players than any team in the business and they’re not good. The Seahawks may not win a road game all year. This is bad club that ran into an extremely flat 49ers team in week one and the same fate does not await them in Denver. The Broncos came up just short in its opening loss to the Jags. They went nose-to-nose with Jacksonville and were very close to forcing OT. The Broncos outgained the Jags, 363-299, but had trouble finishing off drives and lost the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. That was on the road and now the Broncos will play in front of a boisterous Invesco Field home crowd to an attempt to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to last year. Frankly, the Broncos couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent to open the year at home against and should have little trouble winning this game by two TD’s or more. Play: Denver –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).   

INDIANAPOLIS –5 over NY Giants

The Indianapolis Colts are the best regular season team in the league and it’s not even close. They’ve won 25 of its last 27 regular season games and they’re coming off a loss. Peyton Manning only threw for 433 yards. The Colts really need no introduction, they’re as solid as ever and there’s very little chance of them opening the year 0-2 and you can triple that with them being at home on a Sunday night. The Giants won ugly in its deceiving win over the Panthers. As a 6½-point favorite, the Giants needed everything to go its way to pull off the win. In fact, the Giants picked off three Matt Moore passes in the end zone and that was the difference. Carolina led 16-14 at the half and had they finished those drives with either a TD or FG, the Panthers could have been up for 14 or more. Peyton Manning won’t throw picks in the end zone and if Matt Moore moved the Panthers down field at will one can only imagine what Peyton will do. Yeah, the Colts defense got eaten alive by the Texans ground game. However, that game was in Houston and no team makes better adjustments than the Colts and it’s also worth noting that the Texans offense is as potent as they come. The Colts are an elite team while the Giants are a .500 team at best and play in the weaker NFC. Play: Indianapolis –5 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).