A poorer Ravens team missed a wide open 5 yard td pass and a fg in the end to lose it last year. They proved again this year playing in Foxboro doesn't bother them. Ravens to the bank. All Harbaugh bowl this year, get ready for the brotherly hype.
At times like this, I always wonder, "Who is the public?" There's plenty of reasons why casual or analysis-challenged bettors might take Patriots or Ravens. So, it's hard to say which way the line will be shaded so that bookies have an edge. Or will bookies just try to get equal action? This might be one where they think they'll get equal action at NE -9.
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Quote Originally Posted by Blitzman2:
A poorer Ravens team missed a wide open 5 yard td pass and a fg in the end to lose it last year. They proved again this year playing in Foxboro doesn't bother them. Ravens to the bank. All Harbaugh bowl this year, get ready for the brotherly hype.
At times like this, I always wonder, "Who is the public?" There's plenty of reasons why casual or analysis-challenged bettors might take Patriots or Ravens. So, it's hard to say which way the line will be shaded so that bookies have an edge. Or will bookies just try to get equal action? This might be one where they think they'll get equal action at NE -9.
The best I understand from things I've read is they come-up with the right spread then factor the public's perception on to that spread.
Everyone knows the Pats are a big public team, therefore a number of points must be factored into the line.
My line on the game based on regular season is Pats -7.56, my lines are 5-2 ATS in the playoffs.
However, the Ravens have been playing the best in the playoffs coming into this game according to my power ratings.
Look what they did to Denver, won the ave per pass battle big, won QB Passer Rating battle big, won the TO battle, teams who win these battles by as much as the Ravens did usually will win the game in double digits not by 3 pts in OT.
Ravens are the most undervalued team and the best team in my power ratings throughout the playoffs to this point.
Not sure how well that works in the championship games, it works very well in SB's if they can get there and depending how the 2 teams play.
Remember this, 1team from the wild card round have been doing very well in the playoffs and SB.
Last year it was the Gaints, 2010 it was Packers, none in 2009, 2008 it was Cards who covered in the SB and were a fluke pick-six on the last play of the 1st half from likely winning, in 2007 it was the Gaints, all of these teams were playing very well according to my power ratings in the playoffs similar to the Ravens.
They all played better in the playoffs then they did in the regular season just like the Ravens are doing.
Ravens are definately one team that is not intimidated by the Pats and they know they can beat them ...........................................................
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The best I understand from things I've read is they come-up with the right spread then factor the public's perception on to that spread.
Everyone knows the Pats are a big public team, therefore a number of points must be factored into the line.
My line on the game based on regular season is Pats -7.56, my lines are 5-2 ATS in the playoffs.
However, the Ravens have been playing the best in the playoffs coming into this game according to my power ratings.
Look what they did to Denver, won the ave per pass battle big, won QB Passer Rating battle big, won the TO battle, teams who win these battles by as much as the Ravens did usually will win the game in double digits not by 3 pts in OT.
Ravens are the most undervalued team and the best team in my power ratings throughout the playoffs to this point.
Not sure how well that works in the championship games, it works very well in SB's if they can get there and depending how the 2 teams play.
Remember this, 1team from the wild card round have been doing very well in the playoffs and SB.
Last year it was the Gaints, 2010 it was Packers, none in 2009, 2008 it was Cards who covered in the SB and were a fluke pick-six on the last play of the 1st half from likely winning, in 2007 it was the Gaints, all of these teams were playing very well according to my power ratings in the playoffs similar to the Ravens.
They all played better in the playoffs then they did in the regular season just like the Ravens are doing.
Ravens are definately one team that is not intimidated by the Pats and they know they can beat them ...........................................................
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