Swithhawk... DaBoys... you will not resolve your debate, because one of you wants to believe the line move means something, because that person has no other way to figure out who to bet on... the other one realizes you might as well be playing a slot machine if that is how you decide who to bet on...
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Swithhawk... DaBoys... you will not resolve your debate, because one of you wants to believe the line move means something, because that person has no other way to figure out who to bet on... the other one realizes you might as well be playing a slot machine if that is how you decide who to bet on...
3pm and 720pm gmes fav al cover GB 6- everyone s got$ in pockets ,lets say a large portion of these made their late sunday nite . THEBOSS COMES IN MON AM ,SEZ WTF RAISE THE LINE 111 NE 35 TEX 24 LOL GOOD LUCK TO ALL DK
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3pm and 720pm gmes fav al cover GB 6- everyone s got$ in pockets ,lets say a large portion of these made their late sunday nite . THEBOSS COMES IN MON AM ,SEZ WTF RAISE THE LINE 111 NE 35 TEX 24 LOL GOOD LUCK TO ALL DK
here's one thing... a line move from 4 to 5.5 isn't that significant... games do not land on 5 very often... from 4 to 6 is less of a line move than from 3 to 3.5...
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here's one thing... a line move from 4 to 5.5 isn't that significant... games do not land on 5 very often... from 4 to 6 is less of a line move than from 3 to 3.5...
bingo. the line moved because of the perceived drop off from smith to Kapernick.
So why does the patriots line move based on somesort of magical "smart" or "sharp" money? couldnt it just as easily be a move rooted in perception?
"Public" or "Sharp" doesnt truely mean squat to the books, they move lines generally to protect themselves from liabilities one way or the other.
I liked the pats too, but Im not rushing out to buy Pats because there is steam.
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Books definitely pay attention to Sharp bets.
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Quote Originally Posted by switchwalk:
bingo. the line moved because of the perceived drop off from smith to Kapernick.
So why does the patriots line move based on somesort of magical "smart" or "sharp" money? couldnt it just as easily be a move rooted in perception?
"Public" or "Sharp" doesnt truely mean squat to the books, they move lines generally to protect themselves from liabilities one way or the other.
I liked the pats too, but Im not rushing out to buy Pats because there is steam.
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Books definitely pay attention to Sharp bets.
You act like you turn in a card when you place your bet, whether you're a sharp or a joe. I'm sure they can mostly figure it out, but sometimes they have no clue
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Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Books definitely pay attention to Sharp bets.
You act like you turn in a card when you place your bet, whether you're a sharp or a joe. I'm sure they can mostly figure it out, but sometimes they have no clue
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Books definitely pay attention to Sharp bets.
what does where the money come from truely matter? yes, if someone with a name comes in and throws some big bucks on a side, a casino might pause for thought; but generally speaking $100 is worth $100 to a book regardless of who it comes from.
If for an event the line is -105 on each side; who joey public puts his money on is irrelevant if they get $100 on each side; the book makes $5 off each bet, regardless of outcomes. They arent trying to fuuck you, they'd rather take that $5 back from each guy, then try to predict what the final score is and adjust the spread accordingly to make $10 off one guy.
also I really dont think me and DaBoys were "arguing" or trying to "win" anything, im just playing devils advocate; the move went from -3.5 to -5.5; it didnt cross the 'major' key numbers of 3/7/10 (some people will argue that 4 is a moderately key number, and id have to agree) since the steam blew clean through 4, id ASSUME there is money behind the wager; but since its "only" 4 and not a 3/7/10, im not gunna get all excited that the line movement agrees with who i want to bet on.
Most importantly the number of scenarios where the texans cover +5.5 is statistically higher than +3.5; for me to bet NOW at -5.5, because someone put a large amount of $$ on pats -3.5 makes no sense; they are entirely different wagers (even if both win/lose in tonights contest)
im confused as to why when two people try to talk about something as abstract as line movement; respectfully worded converse opinions are viewed as hostile in anyway; thats why this forum is a clusterfuuck of boring/shiitty content. I fuucking love this discussion; ill be in these threads almost everytime they come up; i want to hear opinions that arent my own, i already know where i stand.
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Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:
Actually, I think you are wrong about the books not caring if its "public" money or "sharp" money. Every betting book I've read say Joe Public can put $10k on a game and the line won't move. But a known Sharp can put $5k on the same game but opposite way and the line will move, even though Joe Public's bet was more.
Books definitely pay attention to Sharp bets.
what does where the money come from truely matter? yes, if someone with a name comes in and throws some big bucks on a side, a casino might pause for thought; but generally speaking $100 is worth $100 to a book regardless of who it comes from.
If for an event the line is -105 on each side; who joey public puts his money on is irrelevant if they get $100 on each side; the book makes $5 off each bet, regardless of outcomes. They arent trying to fuuck you, they'd rather take that $5 back from each guy, then try to predict what the final score is and adjust the spread accordingly to make $10 off one guy.
also I really dont think me and DaBoys were "arguing" or trying to "win" anything, im just playing devils advocate; the move went from -3.5 to -5.5; it didnt cross the 'major' key numbers of 3/7/10 (some people will argue that 4 is a moderately key number, and id have to agree) since the steam blew clean through 4, id ASSUME there is money behind the wager; but since its "only" 4 and not a 3/7/10, im not gunna get all excited that the line movement agrees with who i want to bet on.
Most importantly the number of scenarios where the texans cover +5.5 is statistically higher than +3.5; for me to bet NOW at -5.5, because someone put a large amount of $$ on pats -3.5 makes no sense; they are entirely different wagers (even if both win/lose in tonights contest)
im confused as to why when two people try to talk about something as abstract as line movement; respectfully worded converse opinions are viewed as hostile in anyway; thats why this forum is a clusterfuuck of boring/shiitty content. I fuucking love this discussion; ill be in these threads almost everytime they come up; i want to hear opinions that arent my own, i already know where i stand.
While the public likes to lay their bet down after work a couple of things happened.
1) favorites went 9-6 this week -
2) a couple of teams that are getting talk up on ESPN - like the Colts, Skins and a team with a big following - Dallas getting points after a tragedy (with a short memory the KC LB was only 10 days ago) so they got a big public following.
3) You also had the two New York teams cover
4) You had all the afternoon games and evening game where the favorite cover and outside of GB/Det go over.
So, the public has money to burn...why not get it going with NE.
It also like means there are a number of open parley's and teasers laid down by the public coming from yesterday's big games still working with NE and the over.
Thus, the books are trying to lay off some of that liability.
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While the public likes to lay their bet down after work a couple of things happened.
1) favorites went 9-6 this week -
2) a couple of teams that are getting talk up on ESPN - like the Colts, Skins and a team with a big following - Dallas getting points after a tragedy (with a short memory the KC LB was only 10 days ago) so they got a big public following.
3) You also had the two New York teams cover
4) You had all the afternoon games and evening game where the favorite cover and outside of GB/Det go over.
So, the public has money to burn...why not get it going with NE.
It also like means there are a number of open parley's and teasers laid down by the public coming from yesterday's big games still working with NE and the over.
Thus, the books are trying to lay off some of that liability.
Ppl are flying out of Vegas and the action came in last night on Pats -4....as the line move higher, the Pats backers jumped in on the frenzy. I see value bettors coming in late to buy the +pts.
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Ppl are flying out of Vegas and the action came in last night on Pats -4....as the line move higher, the Pats backers jumped in on the frenzy. I see value bettors coming in late to buy the +pts.
what does where the money come from truely matter? yes, if someone with a name comes in and throws some big bucks on a side, a casino might pause for thought; but generally speaking $100 is worth $100 to a book regardless of who it comes from.
If for an event the line is -105 on each side; who joey public puts his money on is irrelevant if they get $100 on each side; the book makes $5 off each bet, regardless of outcomes. They arent trying to fuuck you, they'd rather take that $5 back from each guy, then try to predict what the final score is and adjust the spread accordingly to make $10 off one guy.
also I really dont think me and DaBoys were "arguing" or trying to "win" anything, im just playing devils advocate; the move went from -3.5 to -5.5; it didnt cross the 'major' key numbers of 3/7/10 (some people will argue that 4 is a moderately key number, and id have to agree) since the steam blew clean through 4, id ASSUME there is money behind the wager; but since its "only" 4 and not a 3/7/10, im not gunna get all excited that the line movement agrees with who i want to bet on.
Most importantly the number of scenarios where the texans cover +5.5 is statistically higher than +3.5; for me to bet NOW at -5.5, because someone put a large amount of $$ on pats -3.5 makes no sense; they are entirely different wagers (even if both win/lose in tonights contest)
im confused as to why when two people try to talk about something as abstract as line movement; respectfully worded converse opinions are viewed as hostile in anyway; thats why this forum is a clusterfuuck of boring/shiitty content. I fuucking love this discussion; ill be in these threads almost everytime they come up; i want to hear opinions that arent my own, i already know where i stand.
No hostility or arguing from me. Just trying to put my view out there based on line movement.
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Quote Originally Posted by switchwalk:
what does where the money come from truely matter? yes, if someone with a name comes in and throws some big bucks on a side, a casino might pause for thought; but generally speaking $100 is worth $100 to a book regardless of who it comes from.
If for an event the line is -105 on each side; who joey public puts his money on is irrelevant if they get $100 on each side; the book makes $5 off each bet, regardless of outcomes. They arent trying to fuuck you, they'd rather take that $5 back from each guy, then try to predict what the final score is and adjust the spread accordingly to make $10 off one guy.
also I really dont think me and DaBoys were "arguing" or trying to "win" anything, im just playing devils advocate; the move went from -3.5 to -5.5; it didnt cross the 'major' key numbers of 3/7/10 (some people will argue that 4 is a moderately key number, and id have to agree) since the steam blew clean through 4, id ASSUME there is money behind the wager; but since its "only" 4 and not a 3/7/10, im not gunna get all excited that the line movement agrees with who i want to bet on.
Most importantly the number of scenarios where the texans cover +5.5 is statistically higher than +3.5; for me to bet NOW at -5.5, because someone put a large amount of $$ on pats -3.5 makes no sense; they are entirely different wagers (even if both win/lose in tonights contest)
im confused as to why when two people try to talk about something as abstract as line movement; respectfully worded converse opinions are viewed as hostile in anyway; thats why this forum is a clusterfuuck of boring/shiitty content. I fuucking love this discussion; ill be in these threads almost everytime they come up; i want to hear opinions that arent my own, i already know where i stand.
No hostility or arguing from me. Just trying to put my view out there based on line movement.
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