94-62 ATS season-to-date....NO +6 pending.
Packers got a lucky win for us, (though if they hadn't covered by getting that last TD my UNDER on the same game would have covered) and Giants/Commies staying under was pretty fortunate too....luck enters into about 1/3 of the games in the NFL....if you hit 50% or more of those could-go-either-way games and you otherwise know what you're doing you have a chance to have a profitable season.
Packers still should be done with Rogers after this season as they are in the midst of a reset and will likely finish fourth next season in the NFC North.....organizations have a tendency to hold on too long, instead of utilizing the Belichick idea of getting rid of a guy one year too soon, rather than one year too late.
Still super-impressed with Seattle this season, even if they didn't get the money for me today. Geno is a top 10 quarterback and the rest of that team is so strong fundamentally plus you can always count on them to give max effort. That home game in two weeks time where they get the 49ers in the King Dome or whatever they call it now will be must-watch TV for me.
Home dogs just are super good this season, though this weekend we saw for the first time they tailed off. Home dog UNDERs continued continuing on.....I have them at 20-49 o/u this season so far which is pretty incredible.
I rate the Ravens as being 7 points worse without Action Jackson and it looks like he'll be out for awhile....I'm fading them this week against their arch rivals who have a coach that is one of the underdog coaches in NFL history.
Mentioned that using angles like I do after week 11 has not been that great over the years....have incorporated o/u betting in the last few weeks with success, but picking sides has been a slog for over a month now. Will lesson the emphasis on angles using the databases....will still use them, but instead of that being 80-90% of the betting methodology, it'll be 50-60%.
I mentioned also in last week's thread that winning away non-divisional underdogs went 0-3 ATS this past week....Titans, Jets and Dolphins all lost and failed to cover...they traditionally are fades....I lost taking the Dolphins when I knew that going in.....my bad.
Obviously, some away dogs cover that are playing a non-divisional opponent.....51.5% of losing away non-divisional dogs cover, and that number is much higher since 2014 for whatever reason. Conversely, only 48% of winning away non-divisional dogs have covered over the past 30-odd years, so if you are betting them of course you can win, but you putting yourself in a disadvantage to take them on a regular basis.
On the other hand losing away divisional dogs cover 54% of the time and slightly more than 50% of winning away dogs do.
Plays:
1) Lions +1'
2) Steelers pik
3) Rams +5'