Week 9 Leans/Plays

the Bengals seem so obvious it almost scares me to bet it

Yeah I got you man i bleed green as well I hate every NFC East team with a passion.  Usually dont bet on the Eagles just because I dont need to I am already to interested in the game and i dont want to ruin it by betting on it and not covering or something.  I am more into football itself than betting on it.  Best sport to watch and play by far, and betting on it just makes it more fun.

gl whodey.

You know where I side in this one.

I think the bye was actually a bad thing for the Bengals.

No Gaither the first time we played and it made a big difference. He's back and you're without Odom this time.

Cameron had a vanilla game-plan last time. That won't be the case this week.

I see a FG game either way.

I am really loving Carolina t +14 or whatever absurd number they are getting. Going to bang the ml for a nice payout too. going to take the Texans and their ml also.

New Strategy for 2nd H of season.

Double up on NO & Indy opponants each week. Going to be huge value and they gonna lose sometime, I just hope NO doesn't wait until they play atl in atl.

yeah, i think ravens beat cicny this week and get revenge.

Love the Bengals, will be at the game raising some hell on Ravens fans as usual. When will this team get some respect? Winning @ Balt, @ GB, and Pitt and Chicago at home. I'll be taking the spread and ML just like I did the last time in Balt.

Other leans:
Miami +11
Houston+9
Philly -3

Hell yeah I'll be there raising hell as well.  Can't wait until Sunday.  Should be a good game.  I personally hope we spank them, but I don't see the Ravens being capable if really getting spanked.

damn whodey, i actually leaned ravens here in this spot but i know what happened when i faded you last week on ur go-to plays Bengals it is

  Theory:::: Ravens Defense is back

Just a theory though...... 

I don't think the Bengals have it in them for another Bmore defeat......I hate playing revenge angles, but after Ray Lewis hosed his own team with a penalty the first time they played, I wouldn't want to face that murdering psychopath this time around.............. I expect a much more disciplined game for the Ravens........

Horrible Moose last night for you........... I had Atlanta +11.5 but My under 62 Teaser got hosed with that bullcrap last second FG also.......

I'm loving this too, but I'm betting the public bets it up to CIN +3.5, what do you think Whodey?

In my opinion its really easy to shut down Denver's offense.  Especially if your defense is somewhat decent.  They had two weeks to prepare for Denver anyhow.  That doesn't seem like to be a hard team to game plan for stop Brandon Marshall.  Seems easy enough right.  I mean I watched their offense week 1 granted it was week 1 but their offense is in the 20's at best.  Their offense has been put in good situations by good play by their defense.  That being said.  The Bengals have had two weeks to prepare for the Ravens, and I don't think the bye is a bad thing.  Carson Palmer has been very good against Baltimore.  One of the teams he has been able to beat.  I don't know why you don't think they don't have another win in against Baltimore.  That logic isn't rationale.  I'm not worried about Ray Ray.  Personally I think we will be able to move the ball.  I don't think we will be able to score a whole bunch of points but I think our offense will score a bunch.  Personally I think the Odom loss isn't as big of a deal as it seems.  He was doing well this season, but I still thought he was a little overrated.  I think the Bengals get the W here.  Playing at home, 2 weeks to prepare, pretty healthy everywhere.  Love this spot, especially catching 3 points.  Which is a complete joke in my opinion.  I was looking to catch Bengals -2.  Was really hoping that I could get that line.  When I saw +3 I almost lost my mind, but thought that was sort of expected.  Anyways, I got to get out of here, my girlfriend is driving me nuts we are going out to dinner.  Might be back on later.  Peace out.

loving those picks of your

Yeah, shallow post by myself...............here are some more baseless things............ more like predictions and gut feels

I think Baltimores defense is too talented to be bitched up for the entire season.  In my opinion I think from here on out they will play sound defense.

 Lets not forget how things went down the first time, Cinci stealing the game at the end after 2 penalty calls.  Im sure this is still fresh in the minds of Baltimore players.    Their defense will dictate this game and Im predicting a great showing from Flacco.  I bet he puts up 3 TD's himself...........score 28-13.......but what do I know, im .500 through 50 games.........

whodey.. tuff loss last night buddy.. i had under on a teaser and that last minute fg screwed me too... i know u had -9.5... guess thats why they call it gambling! i think im tailing you on the cincy play... everyone focused on how balt played vs denver.. quick 2 forget they shit the bed their 3 games before that! anyway, best of luck. im new 2 covers but i like ur writeups and insight.. best of luck ....

If I had to choose most likely locks it would be the following:

Chargers +4.5

Falcons -10

Eagles vs Cowboys OVER

Texans vs Colts OVER

Dolphins vs Patriots OVER

Hard to tell if the Colts will get the OVER, thier rookie WRs cannot catch Peyton's passes.

GL Whodey...I hope you win

UPDATE:

Leans from today

Houston +9 - probably wait on line movement....

Tennessee +4 -

BENGALS +3 - Already played.

Seattle - 10

grins- loving that san fran/tenn under your leans look solid as well

SF is very stingey vs the running game.  The games they dropped have been vs. great passing attacks vs Minny, Atlanta, Houston, and Indianapolis.  They have been improving the passing D also holding Peyton to zero TD's last game.  Tennessee's run defense has struggled at the least.  SF really dominates when their running game is going.  In my opinion Tennessee is playing right into the strengths of San Fran.  This game will come down to whether Vince Young has success passing.  I vote against........ Important game for SF after dropping 3 in a row, and its training time for Vince Young, Tennessee's season is shot................

if i had stayed away fromGB i would have had a great week

I know you do well picking your teams with the Spread

Its hard to play against a team with nothing to lose.  Losing both Joe Staley and Nate Clements for several weeks is going to really hurt this 9ers team.  Both defending the pass, and running. 

Sometimes when I'm not being a homer I do well against the spread with my teams.  This week I'm not being a homer.  If ND wasn't my team I would have unloaded more on them than I already did.  But because I'm a homer, I let it go.  ND wins big, Bengals win SU.  This is a statement game for the Bengals.  If they are going to win the division or going to the playoffs they win this game.  This is a very important game for their success for the rest of the season.  I don't think they shut us down, I think we really open it up this week against Baltimore.  I have a feeling we are going to be able to throw the ball this week.  Carson coming off his best game since ACL....BCL he had many great games.  I think he is just now getting comfortable, plus had that nagging ankle injury for several weeks.  Think that is healed finally.

Im not touching that Cinci/Balt game just because of how interested everyone is in that game makes it smell fishy!

My leans for this week...

Overs: I like both the SD/NYG and PHI/DAL overs, did both as all 4 of these teams are almost always good for 24+ points each a game. Lines are 47 = 23.5 each.

 I also did the NO over in a teaser as NO games always end up going over 50 (excluding against buff's strong defence), a trend dating back to last year. Hopefully Delhomme goes back to throwing hand grenades that blow up in his face haha.

I'm also doing the Pitt/Den over 39.5 as its a monday night game. The last 20 or so monday night games have ALL gone over, i've been riding that trend since week1 and its been a very profitable investment.

On the teams: 
I Bought half a point to get Atlanta -9.5, I think ATL is going to come out flying after that close game with NO. Washington may have defence, but their offence is just horrible. Washington wont be able to keep pace with fiery ATL, im predicting like 27-13 as washington can't score.

I also really like Seattle this week a lot, Seattle ALWAYS takes care of bad teams at home. Maybe not good ones, but I've noticed for the last few years they BLOW OUT the bad ones at home. Although they suck on the road lol.

Besides my straight bets mentioned above, i did a pair of teasers, please tell me what you guys think of em:

Hou/Indi over 41
Greenbay -3 (maybe not 10 points, but they'll win)
seattle -3
SD/NYG over 40
pitt/den over 32.5

and

Jack +1/2
ATL -3
arizona +10 (Going to be a close game, i would take 10 points going either way)
Car/NO over 44 1/2
SD/NYG over 40 (Obviously my lock bet)

Also, to the gent who took No/Atl under 62 in a teaser and got boned by that last FG. NEVER BET THE NO UNDER! It's either bet the over, or dont touch it if you dont like it. Theres always the 50%+ chance of the Drew Brees Blitzkrieg!