So so far it looks like im doing well in the Hilton contest and well with my regular NFL Plays as i break them down. Its when i try to get cute and get a nice little moneyline or try to get down on a total that i lose money. Hopefully this doesnt persist.
I dont think i will have a play tonight, i already need San Diego -2.5. I have the Jets in my office pool which i might win this week as im tied for first with an 11-4 record, and tonights game is gonna come down to a tie breaker for me...my total score guess was 42 and the other guys was 45. So im crossing my finger for the UNDER. Unfortunetly though San Diego is like top 5 worst defense through two games. Im already looking ahead to next week though....
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Updated Record
0-0 Teasers (San Diego -2.5 pending)
13-5 NFL plays
3-4 Over/Unders
1-3 ML
17-12 YTD.............
0-1 Middle Opportunities (still 1-1 ATS)
0-2 MNF
11-4 Hilton Contest
3-2 V-P's
So so far it looks like im doing well in the Hilton contest and well with my regular NFL Plays as i break them down. Its when i try to get cute and get a nice little moneyline or try to get down on a total that i lose money. Hopefully this doesnt persist.
I dont think i will have a play tonight, i already need San Diego -2.5. I have the Jets in my office pool which i might win this week as im tied for first with an 11-4 record, and tonights game is gonna come down to a tie breaker for me...my total score guess was 42 and the other guys was 45. So im crossing my finger for the UNDER. Unfortunetly though San Diego is like top 5 worst defense through two games. Im already looking ahead to next week though....
I've already played both...I couldnt believe these numbers in divisional games. KC at home should be closer to about a 5 and Washington should be about where Philly was. I expect us to find more and more value as the weeks press on as Vegas begins to care not where the line should be, but where they will get even action @. I should have probably waited for the Washington game to see if the pub pushes that one up but i got excited when i seen it. My book hasnt released totals yet so we'll see if i can find some tomorrow and there are also 5 NL's right now, so there might be more in store for us.
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So from the early lines that came out....
Kansas City +9 Denver
Washington +11.5 Dallas
I've already played both...I couldnt believe these numbers in divisional games. KC at home should be closer to about a 5 and Washington should be about where Philly was. I expect us to find more and more value as the weeks press on as Vegas begins to care not where the line should be, but where they will get even action @. I should have probably waited for the Washington game to see if the pub pushes that one up but i got excited when i seen it. My book hasnt released totals yet so we'll see if i can find some tomorrow and there are also 5 NL's right now, so there might be more in store for us.
The Chiefs looked like they were playing better in the 2nd half of the game yesterday. They didnt just pack it in, they continued to play their game. Thigpen started out like 1 for 10 or something but then he got the hang of it and LJ rushed for over 100 for a change. Denver has come off of 2 emotional last second victories and Herm Edwards job might be on the line soon enough, so i think this game is very important for them, if they cant win SU, which they probably cant, you cant expect them to fight until the very end.
Atlanta +7
Defintely gonna buy the hook here, but i dont even think i need it. Panthers were real inept in the 2nd half against Minnesota and gave up a 10 point lead. If Atlanta can get that kind of pressure on Delhomme they should hang around. Their run game alone should be able to keep them involved. The Panthers really dont have that blowout capability. All their games have been very close so far and i expect that to continue here. Both teams will be playing for the division lead and so, i expect Atlanta to show up here. This will be Steve Smiths homecoming and i expect him to have a great game, but the focus on him is probably what will keep Atlanta hanging around.
Cin-Cle...
Stay Away From This Game
Houston +8
I dont know about the Texans. I've been fading the Astros due to Hurricane Ike and i faded the Texans last week for the same reason. If they were playing any other team i would probably fade them one more time before giving them respect, but they have had good luck against the Jags the last two years going 3-1 SU against them while being a relatively bad team. Jags are coming off an emotional win @ Indy and are now playing back to back divisionals. I have Jacksonville @ 0-3 ATS last 3 games in the past two years on the 2nd game of back-to-back divisionals. Last week was a must-win for Jacksonville and now they can breath easy, i think they will breath a little too easy and end up winning a scrappy game here.
SF-NO......no opinion....
Arizona-Jets....NL....im thinking it will be about -3 for the Jets. Depending on what happens on Monday Night tonight, i would lean to the Jets there but thats really without considering much.
be back after lunch
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Quick peak at some of the games....
Kansas City...
The Chiefs looked like they were playing better in the 2nd half of the game yesterday. They didnt just pack it in, they continued to play their game. Thigpen started out like 1 for 10 or something but then he got the hang of it and LJ rushed for over 100 for a change. Denver has come off of 2 emotional last second victories and Herm Edwards job might be on the line soon enough, so i think this game is very important for them, if they cant win SU, which they probably cant, you cant expect them to fight until the very end.
Atlanta +7
Defintely gonna buy the hook here, but i dont even think i need it. Panthers were real inept in the 2nd half against Minnesota and gave up a 10 point lead. If Atlanta can get that kind of pressure on Delhomme they should hang around. Their run game alone should be able to keep them involved. The Panthers really dont have that blowout capability. All their games have been very close so far and i expect that to continue here. Both teams will be playing for the division lead and so, i expect Atlanta to show up here. This will be Steve Smiths homecoming and i expect him to have a great game, but the focus on him is probably what will keep Atlanta hanging around.
Cin-Cle...
Stay Away From This Game
Houston +8
I dont know about the Texans. I've been fading the Astros due to Hurricane Ike and i faded the Texans last week for the same reason. If they were playing any other team i would probably fade them one more time before giving them respect, but they have had good luck against the Jags the last two years going 3-1 SU against them while being a relatively bad team. Jags are coming off an emotional win @ Indy and are now playing back to back divisionals. I have Jacksonville @ 0-3 ATS last 3 games in the past two years on the 2nd game of back-to-back divisionals. Last week was a must-win for Jacksonville and now they can breath easy, i think they will breath a little too easy and end up winning a scrappy game here.
SF-NO......no opinion....
Arizona-Jets....NL....im thinking it will be about -3 for the Jets. Depending on what happens on Monday Night tonight, i would lean to the Jets there but thats really without considering much.
The big problem with taking Kansas City is you're betting on a very, very poor team. This entire Chief organization needs help. They've now lost 12 games in a row, going back to last year.
Denver put up 27 and then 41 points against the Chiefs last year... and this year after three games the Broncos are already averaging 38 ppg.
I don't think KC will keep it close. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking 10 to 13 in this spot, let alone 9. The play for me would be to to either pass the game completely or give the 9.
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The big problem with taking Kansas City is you're betting on a very, very poor team. This entire Chief organization needs help. They've now lost 12 games in a row, going back to last year.
Denver put up 27 and then 41 points against the Chiefs last year... and this year after three games the Broncos are already averaging 38 ppg.
I don't think KC will keep it close. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking 10 to 13 in this spot, let alone 9. The play for me would be to to either pass the game completely or give the 9.
The big problem with taking Kansas City is you're betting on a very, very poor team. This entire Chief organization needs help. They've now lost 12 games in a row, going back to last year.
Denver put up 27 and then 41 points against the Chiefs last year... and this year after three games the Broncos are already averaging 38 ppg.
I don't think KC will keep it close. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking 10 to 13 in this spot, let alone 9. The play for me would be to to either pass the game completely or give the 9.
Well that train of thought would have probably made you play Buffalo and the NY Giants this past sunday...you shouldnt be favored by 9 on the road unless you are hands down top 3-4 teams in the league which The Broncos are NOT
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
The big problem with taking Kansas City is you're betting on a very, very poor team. This entire Chief organization needs help. They've now lost 12 games in a row, going back to last year.
Denver put up 27 and then 41 points against the Chiefs last year... and this year after three games the Broncos are already averaging 38 ppg.
I don't think KC will keep it close. I wouldn't feel comfortable taking 10 to 13 in this spot, let alone 9. The play for me would be to to either pass the game completely or give the 9.
Well that train of thought would have probably made you play Buffalo and the NY Giants this past sunday...you shouldnt be favored by 9 on the road unless you are hands down top 3-4 teams in the league which The Broncos are NOT
The KC D is aweful. Actually the O isnt much better. Ok they both suck. ill admit that there is value in that number, but oh my. Ill wait to see them do something before I put my money on a horrible team.
Wash I cant believe that number all over it
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The KC D is aweful. Actually the O isnt much better. Ok they both suck. ill admit that there is value in that number, but oh my. Ill wait to see them do something before I put my money on a horrible team.
The public'ss perception will be fucked up after this last weekend. Points sure do look tempting after all these large spreads didn't cover. I think dallas owes Washinton a good thumping but I need more line movement to confirm this....... GL with your plays slings
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The public'ss perception will be fucked up after this last weekend. Points sure do look tempting after all these large spreads didn't cover. I think dallas owes Washinton a good thumping but I need more line movement to confirm this....... GL with your plays slings
Just played Atlanta +7.5 as well. Sportsinsights are reporting that pinnacle opened it at 9, so i dont know if thats a re-adjustment or betting that brought it there...
Tennessee -3 Looks good to me...I think that this game will be a grind it out smash mouth game and i think The Titans will smash harder. This will be a matchup of backup QBs who are over the hill, Minnesota got the must-win that they needed but now they are on the road in the AFC. Possibility that they could also be thinking of the following week where they have their first prime time Monday Night Game in forever. I will most likely buy this down unless some info. comes out about this game that will lead me to believe the Vikes have what it takes here.
I dont like Green Bay as an underdog here and thought this game should be a PK em. GB historically is not that good when they go down to TB and this defense is still fast. I kinda do think The Pack bounce back and i will be extremely surprised to see The Bucs at the 3-1 with 3 impressive wins. Thats not enough reason for me to jump on GB yet tho.
Buf-STL...line is too high for me to take Buffalo....and i have no desire in betting on STL this year. I might tease it down though...
Chicago Bears ML or plus points should be good. The Phillies are coming off a hard-hitting battle for the state matchup where they may have lost their best player. A line is not out yet, but McNabb also got knicked up in that game. Bears lost their home opener by 3, and lost the week before by 3. They should be good for this game. Philly is coming off two highly emotional games and have another divisional the following week. Im all over the Bears if this comes out anything -3 or less.
I think Pittsburgh wins the MNF game and im willing to take them up to -6. Flacco on MNF against this defense ?...Give me a break
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Just played Atlanta +7.5 as well. Sportsinsights are reporting that pinnacle opened it at 9, so i dont know if thats a re-adjustment or betting that brought it there...
Tennessee -3 Looks good to me...I think that this game will be a grind it out smash mouth game and i think The Titans will smash harder. This will be a matchup of backup QBs who are over the hill, Minnesota got the must-win that they needed but now they are on the road in the AFC. Possibility that they could also be thinking of the following week where they have their first prime time Monday Night Game in forever. I will most likely buy this down unless some info. comes out about this game that will lead me to believe the Vikes have what it takes here.
I dont like Green Bay as an underdog here and thought this game should be a PK em. GB historically is not that good when they go down to TB and this defense is still fast. I kinda do think The Pack bounce back and i will be extremely surprised to see The Bucs at the 3-1 with 3 impressive wins. Thats not enough reason for me to jump on GB yet tho.
Buf-STL...line is too high for me to take Buffalo....and i have no desire in betting on STL this year. I might tease it down though...
Chicago Bears ML or plus points should be good. The Phillies are coming off a hard-hitting battle for the state matchup where they may have lost their best player. A line is not out yet, but McNabb also got knicked up in that game. Bears lost their home opener by 3, and lost the week before by 3. They should be good for this game. Philly is coming off two highly emotional games and have another divisional the following week. Im all over the Bears if this comes out anything -3 or less.
I think Pittsburgh wins the MNF game and im willing to take them up to -6. Flacco on MNF against this defense ?...Give me a break
The KC line should be +5 but could you imagine the money rolling in on Den -5. Thought KC would come out strong at home against Oakland too.... I would say that Wash at that line is a value. That line is coming down..
GL
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The KC line should be +5 but could you imagine the money rolling in on Den -5. Thought KC would come out strong at home against Oakland too.... I would say that Wash at that line is a value. That line is coming down..
The Wash line did some funny $hit earlier....it went up to 12 from 11.5 and then all of a sudden when i refreshed the page, it went down to 11...I was like damnnnn...
Glad i got it at 11.5...but still...
Just decided to make a play on the total here....Im gonna double down on my office pool pick.....Jets-Chargers Under 46
Keep in my mind, i havent been doing well on Totals
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The Wash line did some funny $hit earlier....it went up to 12 from 11.5 and then all of a sudden when i refreshed the page, it went down to 11...I was like damnnnn...
Glad i got it at 11.5...but still...
Just decided to make a play on the total here....Im gonna double down on my office pool pick.....Jets-Chargers Under 46
Keep in my mind, i havent been doing well on Totals
dude you never learn...every time i come into your thread your playing against dallas...dallas rolls here big time bro. washington without jason taylor will have no way to generate a pass rush and if you can't get to Romo he will pick you apart...it won't even be a contest
i like your KC pick IF AND ONLY IF they go back to Huard
i also like the atlanta and houstan picks
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dude you never learn...every time i come into your thread your playing against dallas...dallas rolls here big time bro. washington without jason taylor will have no way to generate a pass rush and if you can't get to Romo he will pick you apart...it won't even be a contest
i like your KC pick IF AND ONLY IF they go back to Huard
dude you never learn...every time i come into your thread your playing against dallas...dallas rolls here big time bro. washington without jason taylor will have no way to generate a pass rush and if you can't get to Romo he will pick you apart...it won't even be a contest
i like your KC pick IF AND ONLY IF they go back to Huard
i also like the atlanta and houstan picks
Bro....Dallas over Green Bay last night was like one of my biggest plays of the week....Last year i was betting against Dallas alot, but this year, i will mostly be on the side of The Boys
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Quote Originally Posted by bmore7:
dude you never learn...every time i come into your thread your playing against dallas...dallas rolls here big time bro. washington without jason taylor will have no way to generate a pass rush and if you can't get to Romo he will pick you apart...it won't even be a contest
i like your KC pick IF AND ONLY IF they go back to Huard
i also like the atlanta and houstan picks
Bro....Dallas over Green Bay last night was like one of my biggest plays of the week....Last year i was betting against Dallas alot, but this year, i will mostly be on the side of The Boys
Well that train of thought would have probably made you play Buffalo and the NY Giants this past sunday...you shouldnt be favored by 9 on the road unless you are hands down top 3-4 teams in the league which The Broncos are NOT
I can see by my comments why you would think that, but actually, no, I wouldn't have cared to lay that much chalk on Buffalo or NY yesterday.
I find myself favoring dogs (without actually trying to... it just seems to work out that way) but when I DO bet a dog I like them to be live dog, with at least a shot at winning or a reason to play or SOMETHING to show me they are capable of putting up an effort. I haven't seen anything of that nature from KC in a long time.
There's another reason you didn't mention, on when a road favorite might be favored by 9 and yet not be a "top four" team... when they're playing a team as bad as the Chiefs!
Good luck with your selection.
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Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:
Well that train of thought would have probably made you play Buffalo and the NY Giants this past sunday...you shouldnt be favored by 9 on the road unless you are hands down top 3-4 teams in the league which The Broncos are NOT
I can see by my comments why you would think that, but actually, no, I wouldn't have cared to lay that much chalk on Buffalo or NY yesterday.
I find myself favoring dogs (without actually trying to... it just seems to work out that way) but when I DO bet a dog I like them to be live dog, with at least a shot at winning or a reason to play or SOMETHING to show me they are capable of putting up an effort. I haven't seen anything of that nature from KC in a long time.
There's another reason you didn't mention, on when a road favorite might be favored by 9 and yet not be a "top four" team... when they're playing a team as bad as the Chiefs!
Denver covers by halftime and never looks back....Felix Jones/Marion Barber is why my Cowboys will cover most of their games. Jason Garrett will use these 2 with precision, count on MB III to score in every 4th quarter this year. Take your points and beg for miracles.........
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Denver covers by halftime and never looks back....Felix Jones/Marion Barber is why my Cowboys will cover most of their games. Jason Garrett will use these 2 with precision, count on MB III to score in every 4th quarter this year. Take your points and beg for miracles.........
I will be playing that game again before gametime...
Already played
Kansas CIty +9
Atlanta +7.5
Washington +11.5
Just played....
Tennessee -2.5 (bought half point)
Tennessee/Minnesota Under 36
Smash mouth game here, couple guys are gonna leave injured..
Tennessee has really beaten up every team they've played, honestly there was no contention in any of their games, so i think they should be able to handle the Vikings here. Vikings strength is their run but the Titans have a stingy defense and will be able to shut this team down. This game should be disgustingly low scoring. Im thinking its like a 16-7 game.
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Damn Public making me lose a point in Denver...
I will be playing that game again before gametime...
Already played
Kansas CIty +9
Atlanta +7.5
Washington +11.5
Just played....
Tennessee -2.5 (bought half point)
Tennessee/Minnesota Under 36
Smash mouth game here, couple guys are gonna leave injured..
Tennessee has really beaten up every team they've played, honestly there was no contention in any of their games, so i think they should be able to handle the Vikings here. Vikings strength is their run but the Titans have a stingy defense and will be able to shut this team down. This game should be disgustingly low scoring. Im thinking its like a 16-7 game.
Slingzz, I don't know it's good or something else, i had same plays on KC +9 and ATL +7.5. Also teasered WAS +18/SD Over 40.5 (last night). Good luck to us!
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Kansas CIty +9
Atlanta +7.5
Washington +11.5
Slingzz, I don't know it's good or something else, i had same plays on KC +9 and ATL +7.5. Also teasered WAS +18/SD Over 40.5 (last night). Good luck to us!
Defintely gonna buy the hook here, but i dont even think i need it. Panthers were real inept in the 2nd half against Minnesota and gave up a 10 point lead. If Atlanta can get that kind of pressure on Delhomme they should hang around. Their run game alone should be able to keep them involved. The Panthers really dont have that blowout capability. All their games have been very close so far and i expect that to continue here. Both teams will be playing for the division lead and so, i expect Atlanta to show up here. This will be Steve Smiths homecoming and i expect him to have a great game, but the focus on him is probably what will keep Atlanta hanging around.
be back after lunch
All of Carolina's games have been close thus far BUT they were against 3 solid teams in Vikings,Bears and Chargers,Panthers at home against the vastly inferior Atlanta = Double Digit victory IMO
Good luck though
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Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:
Atlanta +7
Defintely gonna buy the hook here, but i dont even think i need it. Panthers were real inept in the 2nd half against Minnesota and gave up a 10 point lead. If Atlanta can get that kind of pressure on Delhomme they should hang around. Their run game alone should be able to keep them involved. The Panthers really dont have that blowout capability. All their games have been very close so far and i expect that to continue here. Both teams will be playing for the division lead and so, i expect Atlanta to show up here. This will be Steve Smiths homecoming and i expect him to have a great game, but the focus on him is probably what will keep Atlanta hanging around.
be back after lunch
All of Carolina's games have been close thus far BUT they were against 3 solid teams in Vikings,Bears and Chargers,Panthers at home against the vastly inferior Atlanta = Double Digit victory IMO
Slingzz, I also played CIN -3 (bought .5) and HOU +8. Nothing special, those are trend plays.
I also like TB and SF, both of them play better football than their couparts GB and NO, esp. on defense.
I thought of SF...but then i thought twice cuz all the teams New Orleans played have a combined record of 7-2....meanwhile The 9ers beat two of the worst teams in football basically and lost to an average team at home. I dont think the injury to Shockey does much to them, they seem to be able to just plug guys into that offense. The 9ers have been playing inspired ball though and its good to see them have a winning attitude for a change, this game should be interesting. I lean New Orleans but i'd like to see which way the line sways
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Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Slingzz, I also played CIN -3 (bought .5) and HOU +8. Nothing special, those are trend plays.
I also like TB and SF, both of them play better football than their couparts GB and NO, esp. on defense.
I thought of SF...but then i thought twice cuz all the teams New Orleans played have a combined record of 7-2....meanwhile The 9ers beat two of the worst teams in football basically and lost to an average team at home. I dont think the injury to Shockey does much to them, they seem to be able to just plug guys into that offense. The 9ers have been playing inspired ball though and its good to see them have a winning attitude for a change, this game should be interesting. I lean New Orleans but i'd like to see which way the line sways
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