@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
Watch yourself giving such a detailed CORRECT breakdown of the situation.. Add in they were the dog so the chance of winning in OT was actually less then 50%. and the money line at ANY book would have reflected that.. Then you really have value going for two. But hey on Madden football they never do that .. Over the head of the "Madden" crowd.. But again common sense ain't for everybody.. For the "Madden" crowd lets dumb it down for them.. You get two bites at the apple going for two in that situation..
@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
Watch yourself giving such a detailed CORRECT breakdown of the situation.. Add in they were the dog so the chance of winning in OT was actually less then 50%. and the money line at ANY book would have reflected that.. Then you really have value going for two. But hey on Madden football they never do that .. Over the head of the "Madden" crowd.. But again common sense ain't for everybody.. For the "Madden" crowd lets dumb it down for them.. You get two bites at the apple going for two in that situation..
I took eagles +7 and yes it is weird and you're weird for suggesting that it's not. You dont choose a much lower percentage play that if fails will force you into another lower percentage play just to tie the game later should you score again. That's absurd. A td at the very end of a game to win instead of tie sure but in the situation last night it's odd, very odd. Does it mean for sure it was corrupt? There is no clear evidence so no, we cant say. That's just conjecture, but to say it's not weird or odd just makes you look like a tool.
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
I took eagles +7 and yes it is weird and you're weird for suggesting that it's not. You dont choose a much lower percentage play that if fails will force you into another lower percentage play just to tie the game later should you score again. That's absurd. A td at the very end of a game to win instead of tie sure but in the situation last night it's odd, very odd. Does it mean for sure it was corrupt? There is no clear evidence so no, we cant say. That's just conjecture, but to say it's not weird or odd just makes you look like a tool.
@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
Listen newbie.. You created a new account just to reply to my comment.. Why didn't they go for 2 on their first 2 TDs of the game.. They didn't even get another possession.. When they do have another chance.. then ok go for 2 for the win..
I saw the Steelers score 3 TDs vs the Cowboys a few years ago and they went for 2 all 3 times and failed.. This scenario I can understand as they are aggressive from the get go..
Avoid the tie when the opportunities comes and that's when they are down by one.. too many clowns like you with silly comments..
@newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries.
Listen newbie.. You created a new account just to reply to my comment.. Why didn't they go for 2 on their first 2 TDs of the game.. They didn't even get another possession.. When they do have another chance.. then ok go for 2 for the win..
I saw the Steelers score 3 TDs vs the Cowboys a few years ago and they went for 2 all 3 times and failed.. This scenario I can understand as they are aggressive from the get go..
Avoid the tie when the opportunities comes and that's when they are down by one.. too many clowns like you with silly comments..
Tomlin called for the 2 point conversion 4x in that 2016 game against Dallas and the Steelers were unable to convert on any of them (their kicker was healthy)...Dallas won that game 35-30...going into the game Pitts had a 77% conversion rate on two pointers which prompted Tomlin's calls apparently. It started to become embarassing after the second one failed...
Tomlin called for the 2 point conversion 4x in that 2016 game against Dallas and the Steelers were unable to convert on any of them (their kicker was healthy)...Dallas won that game 35-30...going into the game Pitts had a 77% conversion rate on two pointers which prompted Tomlin's calls apparently. It started to become embarassing after the second one failed...
They got everything figured out. I've heard many people claim the answer is to vote them out of office when things aren't going well...but you guys already did that last year...so what's plan C?
Things weren't going well? I want what you're smoking! The vegetable in our WH now is ruining our nation!!!
They got everything figured out. I've heard many people claim the answer is to vote them out of office when things aren't going well...but you guys already did that last year...so what's plan C?
Things weren't going well? I want what you're smoking! The vegetable in our WH now is ruining our nation!!!
Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi: @newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries. Listen newbie.. You created a new account just to reply to my comment.. Why didn't they go for 2 on their first 2 TDs of the game.. They didn't even get another possession.. When they do have another chance.. then ok go for 2 for the win.. I saw the Steelers score 3 TDs vs the Cowboys a few years ago and they went for 2 all 3 times and failed.. This scenario I can understand as they are aggressive from the get go.. Avoid the tie when the opportunities comes and that's when they are down by one.. too many clowns like you with silly comments..
Oh boy.
Mitchieboy comes in with the correct math, and then Newmarket gets out his pitchfork because "he dont like math".
Look - going for 2 is the right thing to do in the situation Philly was in last night.
Quote Originally Posted by Mitchieboi: @newmarket It makes sense to go for two there. If you estimate extra point make percentage at 100% and 2-point conversion make percentage at 50%. It breaks down like this: 1. Extra point + Extra point = 100% chance of tying when you score twice. 2. a. First 2-point conversion has a 50% chance of making. If you make it, you kick an extra point at 100% accuracy. This means that you win 50% of the time when you score twice. b. If you miss the first 2-point, then you can try again on the second one for a 50% chance again of tying. 50% x 50% = 25%, so you tie 25% of the time. c. If you miss both, you lose 25% of the time. So if you go for extra points, your W/T/L percentage is 0/100/0 but if you go for 2-points it's 50/25/25. If you consider that the ties take you to overtime where you have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning or losing at that point, they become 50/0/50 for EPs and 62.5/0/37.5 for 2Ps. In reality, the extra points perform even worse when you consider that extra points are less than 100% in reality while 2 points are almost exactly 50%. And if your chance of winning in overtime is less than 50%, it skews even harder towards two point tries. Listen newbie.. You created a new account just to reply to my comment.. Why didn't they go for 2 on their first 2 TDs of the game.. They didn't even get another possession.. When they do have another chance.. then ok go for 2 for the win.. I saw the Steelers score 3 TDs vs the Cowboys a few years ago and they went for 2 all 3 times and failed.. This scenario I can understand as they are aggressive from the get go.. Avoid the tie when the opportunities comes and that's when they are down by one.. too many clowns like you with silly comments..
Oh boy.
Mitchieboy comes in with the correct math, and then Newmarket gets out his pitchfork because "he dont like math".
Look - going for 2 is the right thing to do in the situation Philly was in last night.
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