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Trends & Things week 6 2008 NFL

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Week 5 update :
 
Last week both the Underdog trend pick of the week & the Favorite trend pick of the week hit with ease as Miami ( + 6.5 ) beat San Diego outright 17-10 , and the NY Giants ( - 7)  crushed Seattle  44-6
This brings these selections to 4-3 for the Underdog trend picks &
3-1 for the Favorite trend picks through the first 5 weeks ...
Last 4 selections have been succesful...
 
NFC vs AFC update
 
Kansas city 0 - Carolina 34 NFC wins SU & ATS
Tampa Bay 13 - Denver 16 AFC wins SU  NFC wins ATS
Buffalo 17 - Arizona 41 NFC wins SU & ATS
New England 30 - San Francisco 21 AFC wins SU & ATS
Cincinnati 22 - Dallas 31 NFC wins SU AFC wins ATS
NFC  goes 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS
 
Now the YTD  inter-conference numbers look like this >>
NFC leads AFC 10-8 SU
NFC leads AFC  10-8 ATS
Note : AFC has been favored in 10 of these games going 6-4 ATS while the NFC has been favored in 8 of those games going 6-2 ATS
 
Week 6 games :
 
Oakland @ New Orleans - 7 / -9
New York Giants - 7.5 / - 9 @ Cleveland
 
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Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game canceled )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs 7 - 7 ATS   
 
YTD Favs 42 - 30 - 2 ATS ( 58.3 % )
 
Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8  ( one game canceled )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs  8 - 6
 
YTD Overs lead 43 - 30 - 1 ( 58.9 % )
 
Last year  2007-2008 numbers through 5 weeks >>
 
Underdogs led 43-29-4 ( 59.7 % )
Overs led 38-37-1 ( 50.7 % )
Favorites are leading this year at about the same rate Underdogs were leading last year
On week 6 2007  , favorites came in with a 8-4-1 lead
Trends & Things thread from last year >>>
 
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more to come ...
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
I have tracked how teams have responded after losing a close game ( specifically by <= 3 or in OT by 6 ) for the 2006-2007 & 2007-2008 seasons , and found some interesting trends , though I remarked that a bigger sample should be used.
The biggest surprise was in the record of Underdogs of more than 7 ( the game following their loss by <= 3 ) . These dogs went 1-11 ATS in 2007 , while going 4-11 ATS in 2006. This year , it has ocurred once and sure enough that underdog failed to cover the number again . This ocurred when Oakland who lost by one point in week 3 , lost by 10 and failed to cover in week 4 vs San Diego .
 
In 2006 teams that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) went 24-33-2 ATS ( 42.1 % ) following game <= 3 ( or in OT ) 
In 2006 any Dogs  went 15-20 ATS ( 42.8 %  )  that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game
In  2006 Dogs of > 3 went 11-14 ( 44 % )  ATS after losing by <= 3
( or in OT ) prior game
in 2006 Dogs of >= 7  went 4-11 ATS ( 26.7 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT )  prior game
 
In 2007 Teams that lost by <= 3 ( or in OT ) went 23-26 ( 46.9 % ) ATS following game
in 2007 any Dogs went 11-18 ( 34.5 % ) ATS after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game
in 2007 Dogs of > 3 went 6-15 ( 28.6 % )  ATS after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game .
In 2007 Dogs of >= 7 went 1-11 ATS ( 8.3 % ) after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game.
 
Underdogs of 7 or more have proven to be good teams to fade if they lost their prior game by 3 points or less or in OT
 
This year : Week 2 >>
SD lost 38-39 @ Denver ....Push
San Diego has lost 24-26 on week 1 to qualify
Week 3 :
Chicago L 24-27 vs TB Lost ATS ( chi -3 )
Minnesota won 20-10 vs Car Won ATS ( -3.5 )
Seattle won 37-13 vs St Louis Won ATS ( Sea - 9 )
San Diego won 48-29 vs NYJ Won ATS ( SD - 9 )
Week 4 :
 NO - 4 vs SF won 31-17 Won  ATS
Cincinnati - 1 vs Cleveland won 20-12 Lost ATS
Oakl + 9 vs SD  lost 28-18 Lost ATS
Week 5 :
Houston + 3 lost 27-31 vs Indi  Lost ATS
Indi -3 won 31-27 vs Hou ( won ATS )
Dallas -16 won 31-22 vs Cincy Lost ATS
Baltimore + 1 lost 10-13 vs Tenn Lost ATS
 
Week 6 :
Teams that lost by 3 or less ( or in OT ) week 5 that qualify for week 6 >>>
Baltimore , Green bay , Tampa Bay , New Orleans
Baltimore + 4 vs Indi
Green bay + 1 vs seattle
Tampa Bay -1 vs Carolina
New Orleans - 7.5 vs Oakland
No underdogs of + 7 this week ...
Baltimore + 4 & Green Bay + 1 are the dogs ...
YTD > all teams 5-6-1 ATS
Dogs : 0-3 ATS
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #3
Good Stuff 
 
I will stay tuned...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Awesome, looking forward to the rest. Thanks.
 
Banned
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Posted: #5
good stuff
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
These are the biggest point differentials based on Jeff Sagarin's relative rankings and actual spreads ...
In order words , if you were to pick 5 teams based on the largest spread differences , these would be the teams and the corresponding spread advantage ...These were last week's largest margins >>>
Chicago + 11 differential  Winner
NYG + 10.5 differential Winner
NO + 5.5 differential Loser
Caro + 5 differential Winner
Tampa Bay + 4 differential Winner
 
This week approximate differential and the teams they favor
 ( top 5 ) >>>
Washington 16 pt differential = Washington - points over St Louis
Miami 13 pt differential = Miami + points over Houston
Green Bay 8 pt differential = Green Bay + points over Seattle
NY Jets 7 point differential = NY Jets - points over Cincinnati
Arizona 7 point differential = Arizona + points over Dallas
 
In other words, when taking into account the teams rankings and home field advantage by Jeff Sagarin the difference between the teams is the Sagarin spread. This is then compared to the actual spreads , and difference noted.
 
Washington is the # 1 rated team in his system and their schedule ranking ( schedule strength is # 1 )
NY Giants are ranked # 2 , though their schedule ranking is dead last .
Miami is ranked 9th with the 4th ranked schedule is 4th.
This system has Miami favored by double digits , and this team is an underdog to Houston .
Arizona also shows up as a -2.5 point favorite , but they are actually an underdog of 4.5 / 5 to Dallas .
Arizona schedule ranking is 6th , compared to Dallas # 20 
Arizona is a surprising 5th ranked team , slightly ranked ahead of Dallas overall.  
 
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Captain
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Posted: #8
Pre Bye & Post Bye trends :  week 6
 
Stat  of the week >>
 
Under is 11-1 in NY Jets post-bye games last 12 years
 
Jets are allowing 12.7 PPG on average in those 12 games !
 
Also : Jets are 6-0 ATS in post-bye games
 
In addition , 
Under is 7-1 in Cincy's last 8 games vs AFC
Under is 8-3 in Cincy's last 11 games overall
Under is 6-2 in NY Jets last 8 games overall
Under is 8-3 in NY Jets last 11 games in October
Under is 5-0 in NY Jets last 5 following a SU win
Under is 7-0 in Ny Jets last 5 following an ATS win  
 
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS pre-bye
Arizona is 7-2 ATS pre-bye
Eagles under Andy Reid ( since 2000 ) are 1-7-1 ATS pre-bye
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Contrarians found no solace last week in fading the more heavily bet sides .
I featured the bet tracker last week , though these percentages will change throughout the week, depending in part on injuries & spread changes ... But we can assume that the " public " did just fine .
 
Bet Tracker ...
week 5 >>>
 
Chicago ...82 % W
Indianapolis : 80 % W
New Orleans ...80 %  L
New England ...77 %  W
San Diego ....76 %  L
New York Giants ...75 % W
 
Week 6 >>>
 
Only featuring percentages of 75 % or more >>>
 
Chicago .......76 %
NY Giants .....75 %
 
Wagerline consensus has Philadelphia @ 73 %
 
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Captain
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Posted: #10
Chicago 2-10 ATS in week 6
Falcons are 5-17 ATS last 22 home games vs a team with a winning road record
Over is 10-2 in Falcons last 12 games
 
Over is 10-1-1 in NO last 12 games on field turf
 
St Louis is 4-17 ATS vs team w/ winning record
 
Redskins are 2-9-1 ATS vs team w/ a losing record
 
Detroit is 1-11 ATS last 12 games overall
 
Over is 14-3 in Texans last 17 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards prior game
Dolphins are 7-20-1 ATS vs a team w/ a losing record
 
Ravens  are 7-21 ATS last 28 road games
Ravens are 4-11 ATS following an ATS loss
 
Over is 13-3-1 in Broncos last 17 home games ( Under last time )
Over is 10-2-1 in Jaguars last 13 games on grass
Over is 14-3-2 in Jaguars last 19 games after allowing more than 350 total yards prior game.
 
Over is 11-2 in Cardinals last 13 games following a SU win
 
Over is 15-3 in GB last 18 vs NFC
Seattle is 6-25 ATS in last 31 games in October
 
Over is 10-2 in Chargers last 12 games following an ATS loss
Patriots are 15-3 ATS after allowing less than 150 passing yards prior game
Chargers are 16-5 ATS last 21 games in October
 
Giants are 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games in October
Giants are 20-7 in last 27 road games .
Under is 23-5 in Browns last 28 games after allowing less than 150 passing yards prior game
 
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Captain
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Posted: #11
Inside the 20 Red Zone handicapping featured on TMW has Detroit as its pick .
This feature analyzes both teams inside 20 offenses and defenses , and determines based on that stat Detroit to be the right side as they have been more effective inside the 20 than Minnesota who ends up settling for field goals at a 3 to 1 ratio over touchdowns when they reach the red zone.
 
Another angle to consider is that Detroit since 2000 has had 7 ATS losing streaks of 3 games or more in individual seasons . In 5 of those ocassions , the Lions covered their next game to avoid a 4th ATS defeat , and in  the  two ocassions that they didn't , they went on to cover the next game thus avoiding a 0-5 ATS streak on any individual season this decade . This is in light of their 1-11 ATS record that dates back to last year.
In other words, the Lions would have to topple yet another mark of futilty that they have so far avoided despite  only winning 38 games since the decade began. They have averaged 4.75 wins in that span .
I thought , the game coming off a bye at home vs Chicago presented a good opportunity to back Detroit , and I thought terribly wrong .
Now , they must march to Minnesota where they lost 42-10 last year , but they will be getting a Vikings team on a short week after their MNF win over NO.
The trend that is simply to obvious to ignore is that Detroit is 1-11 ATS last 12 games . !
 
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Rookie
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Posted: #12
Keep it coming geezer
 
Captain
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Posted: #13
Basic statistics through week 5 of the 2008-2009 NFL season >>>
 
NFL statistics offense sorted by yards per game :
 
( top 5   )                      (  bottom 5 )
NY Giants                    Cleveland       
Denver                         Cincinnati
Dallas                          ST Louis
New Orleans                 Kansas City
Arizona                         Detroit
 
 Biggest surprises : NY Giants from 16th  last year to # 1  : Cleveland , Cincinnati   top 8th & 10th last year to bottom 2
 
NFL statistics offense sorted by points scored:
 
 ( Top 5 )                       (  bottom 5 )
NY Giants                         St louis
Dallas                               Cleveland
Denver                              Kansas City
San Diego                         Cincinnati
Arizona                               Detroit
 
Biggest surprise:   Denver ranked 21st last year to 3rd
Cleveland from 8th last year to 31 st
 
 
NFL satistics defense sorted by yards per game
 
( Top 5 )                                 (   bottom 5 )
Baltimore                                  Detroit
Pittsburgh                                 St Louis
NY Giants                                Kansas City
Carolina                                    Denver
Tennessee                                San Diego
 
Biggest surprise : Carolina from 16th last year to 4th
 
NFL statistics defense sorted by points per game 
 
 ( Top 5 )                             ( bottom 5 )
Tennessee                            St louis                    
NY Giants                             Detroit
Baltimore                              Houston
Carolina                                Seattle
Pittsburgh                             NY Jets
 
Biggest surprise : Baltimore from 22nd last year to 3rd
Seattle from 7th last year to 29th
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
The AFC may have lost its dominance , due primarily to Indianapolis slow start , New England's loss of Tom Brady , Cincinnati and Cleveland suddenly inept offenses .
That being said , a  crop of eager teams like Buffalo, Ny Jets , and Miami are emerging from the shadow of the Patriots this year.
 
 Meanwhile, the  NY Giants seem even  better than last year proving winning the super bowl was no fluke  , and teams like Washington, Carolina , and Arizona are  building momentum early .
Dallas remains one of the top  and most dangerous teams in the NFL when and if they want to play ...( and if M. Barber not TO gets the ball more )
 
But the bottom dwelers belong to the NFC with Detroit and St Louis embarassing the league, while teams like Miami , NY Jets , Baltimore , Buffalo , and Tennessee have improved,
 
Houston and Cincinnati are thus far the AFC trashy teams with a combined record of 0-9. ( though both better than the NFC counterparts ! )
The AFC still has an edge on the top defenses with the stifling defenses of Baltimore, tennessee , and Pittsburgh.
None of which are better than the NY Giants thus far though . We'll see how NY handles tougher opponents down the line.
 
San Diego and Indianapolis may shake off their sluggish start and restore order in the these 2 conferences . However, a year of transition that kicked off on that eventful upset by the NY Giants
over the Patriots is taking place...
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
This is making for an exciting and unpredictable season where the balance of power will shift more than once until it settles once again.
It is because once dominant teams may have been subdued , and new players battle to take the vacated spots , that trends once relied upon with certainty and regularity may no longer produce .
 
This is a year where recognizing the emerging teams for what they are as well as accepting the decline of others may be imperative to anyone wagering on the NFL.
Trends may speak of another time , in another place far away from the land of pragmatism and reality .
If we were to look at Denver's horrible home record ATS from the recent past  , or Baltimore's devastating ATS record from last year , and formulate our picks based on those we would be missing the transition ocurring .
Tennessee benefitted from constantly covering as an underdog , now they will find themselves favored more often than not ...
The same with Carolina as they position themselves atop the NFC South
New England brings these massive ATS records from years of dominance , but without Tom Brady it's just not the same team...
 
There is a lof of shifting around this year  , and it is best to set your own lines , because oddsmakers will be caught by surprise.
 We are witnessing a flurry of favorites covering , with tremendous line changes in a span of a week .
We are despite favorites covering at nearly 60 % also witnessing mayor upsets once thought unthinkable causing havoc in survivor pools across America .
So far this year, lines have been set incorrectly , as they get pounded mercilessly creating room for middles and teaser creativeness .
Analyzing a matchup and setting your own line is imperative , followed by shopping for best lines available.
Sooner than later , linesmakers will adjust , but this year will be shiftier than most in the recent past.
 Even if my posted record is not quite as bad in reality due to some timely wagers at different times , it is so wrong and so out of touch , that I had to take a step back ,  It has less to do with picking too many games , and more with picking the wrong games or teams !.
Getting caught up in trends of the past and failing to recognize the reality of the teams playing every sunday ...
It is simply a matter of capping the games . ...
Trends remain simply tools in aiding your handicapping , but buyer beware ...this is a year in transition ...
 
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Captain
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Posted: #16
Formulating the Trend picks :
A case for Washington as the Favorite trend pick >>>
 
St Louis is 3-11 ATS in past 14 teams vs NFC East
St Louis is 4-17 ATS vs a team with a winning record
 
This looks solid as the Lambs have scored 43 points while giving up 147 points during their 4 losses .
 
St Louis coming out of the bye-week is a team in serious disarray that has the misfortune of playing every single NFC East team this year ( only the toughest division period ) The Rams will be facing the third team thus far from the NFC East.
The first two games did not go well for them .
Final score : week 1 @ Philadelphia lost 3-38
week 2 : vs NYG lost 13-41
So, they got outscored by these teams 16- 79 !    ouch
 
Now they must travel to Washington and face the 6th ranked offense of the Redskins and 13th ranked defense ...
 
The same Redskins that beat the powerful Cowboys on the road .
Washington could have let their guard down after upsetting Dallas , but handled Philadelphia on the road quite well with another upset win .
 Now you could argue that since they were on the road again vs a div opponent , they could not let their guards down .
 Now that they get to play @ home against arguably the worst team in the NFL , they will ...let down .
 If you have any meaningful trends backing a play against a team in the situation of Washington ...present it !
Otherwise , Washington should be able to score over 30 points against the Rams .
They scored 29 vs NO who has the weakest defense of all the rivals the Redskings have faced thus far ...
St Louis has not surpassed 14 points scored , and only managed 13 points vs Seattle's 26th ranked defense .
 
Washington's defense has faced the # 1 , # 3, # 4 , # 5 , and # 9th ranked offenses in the NFL ( Are you kidding me ..now facing the 30th ranked offense in yards per game and dead last in points scored per game ! )
 
Even after facing the best offenses in the NFL , the most the Redskins allowed was 24 points.
This is a team that is is playing exremely well, and is perfectly capable of beating St Louis by more than 2 touchdowns. and will do so this Sunday...
 
I should add however that >>>
DD favorites have failed to cover thus far this year , and Washington has a record of 2-9-1 ATS vs a team with a losing record
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Heres one against Washington.
Play on any winless team with a record of 0-4 or worse, if they are an underdog off a bye week.

This trend is 16-1-1 ATS
 
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Posted: #18
Of course on the strength of a single trend , it would be unfair not to consider Minnesota Vikings as the Favorite trend pick since Detroit is 1-11 ATS last 12 games !
 
However , Minnesota who is laying as many points as Washington holds the 18th ranked offense in yards gained , but only 22nd in points scored .
That's not very good for a team needing to blow another team out frankly.
Truth be told , Minnesota only averages a shade under 2 points less than Washington , but Minnesota also gives up a shade under 2 points more than Washington does on defense.
Both teams have faced strong opposition with Minnesota's schedule ranking at # 7 compared to Washington's # 1
Whos is more likely to cover ?
Detroit or St louis ?
 
Detroit has the more dangerous receivers and is in a historically good situation to  cover ,
 if Detroit faced St louis in a neutral field sunday , who would you pick ...
If Washington played Minnesota in a neutral field sunday , who would you pick ?
That could be your answer ...
 
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Posted: #19
Keep up the good work Roberto, hopefully you will hit your stride in the NFL soon!!  I like the under in the Jets games, as the number is inflated off the Arizona and SD games.  Jets D played well (0 points) in the first half of Arizona game, second half they relaxed because they were up 34 points!  I am hoping the Jets D regroups after the bye week and plays strong against Cinn. Best of luck!! 
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by hangar18:

Heres one against Washington.
Play on any winless team with a record of 0-4 or worse, if they are an underdog off a bye week.

This trend is 16-1-1 ATS

That is a very impressive stat ., and going on the assumption that your source is correct , then Washington cannot be and should not be a favorite trend pick ...

Thanks for the input ...

 
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Posted: #21
good stuff as always
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
Making an offcial " totals " trend pick this week :
 
Cincinnati @ NY Jets UNDER is the " totals" trend pick of the week .
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Considering for the favorite trend pick : Indianapolis
This would be based on the following >>>
 
in 2007 Dogs of > 3 went 6-15 ATS  ( 28.6 % )  ATS after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT ) prior game .
In  2006 Dogs of > 3 went 11-14 ATS  ( 44 % )  ATS after losing by <= 3
( or in OT ) prior game
In 2008 Dogs of > 3 are 0-1 ATS  after losing by <= 3
( or in OT ) prior game
we combine these : 17 - 30 ATS ( 36.2 % )
as a matter of fact :
In 2008 all Dogs are 0-3 ATS after losing by <= 3 ( or in OT )
Green Bay & Baltimore are both Underdogs
 
This week we have a team , Baltimore that lost to Tennessee 10-13 in week 5 and is now in week 6 an underdog of more than 3 points to the Indianapolis Colts .
in addition we have :
Ravens  are 7-21 ATS last 28 road games
Ravens are 4-11 ATS following an ATS loss
 
This amounts to backing the favorite in this contest :
 
Indianapolis Colts are the favorite trend pick of the week
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Pre Bye & Post Bye trends :  week 6
 
Stat  of the week >>
 
Under is 11-1 in NY Jets post-bye games last 12 years
 
Jets are allowing 12.7 PPG on average in those 12 games !
 
Also : Jets are 6-0 ATS in post-bye games
 
In addition , 
Under is 7-1 in Cincy's last 8 games vs AFC
Under is 8-3 in Cincy's last 11 games overall
Under is 6-2 in NY Jets last 8 games overall
Under is 8-3 in NY Jets last 11 games in October
Under is 5-0 in NY Jets last 5 following a SU win
Under is 7-0 in Ny Jets last 5 following an ATS win  
 

  WOW!

Based on this trend the under is alomst a "you know what".

I'm definatley going to consider it.  Thanks for the great info.

 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Trends remain simply tools in aiding your handicapping , but buyer beware ...this is a year in transition ...
 
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As I was reading your thread full of trends I thought exactly the same thought.  Use trends only as a tool but don't base picks simply on trends as players, teams, and the game it self transitions year to year.  Once again great stuff

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