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Trends & Things NFL 2007-2008 Wekk 8

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Hey everyone ...
 
Thank You all for your concern and well wishes
 
This thread  will be an abbreviated version ...
Last week Kansas City was the Trend Pick of the Week
for a winner bringing these selections to 12-1-1 ATS for the entire
NFL year ...
 
 
I will update the AFC - NFC battles
Favs / Dogs & Over / Unders for the year time permitted
This coming week  on a new Trends @ Things thread for week 9
 
This week what  stands out to me the most is the following ...
( and this is in regards to the selection of an Underdog Trend Pick ...)
 
0-7 teams ( or worse ) are 10-1 ATS since 2000
 
0-7 teams ( or worse ) are 5-0 ATS vs non-losing teams since 2000
These stas are compliments of Kramer from the cappers team ...
 
These stats supporting both of the 0-7 dogs this week favor the
St Louis Rams & Miami Dolphins ....
 
System stat backing the Rams >>
Play on non-coference HD off 3 SU losses as these are :
65-41-1 since 1985
 
 Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons and it is 0-6 ATS after facing New England.
Miami  is 9-2 ATS as dogs of more than six points

Backing Miami  there is a system play of playing against an NFL RF coming off a SU Home  win by 11 or more ....259-190-11 ATS since 1985...( NY Giants are on the road even if Miami is also )
 
 
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992
 
On the favorites side we have New England >>
11-1 ATS off a double-digit division win.
though,  NE is 4-12 ATS L16 home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49
 
NY Giants are 7-0 ATS in Oct games last 2 years ....
Indi is 9-1 ATS in weeks 5-9 last 3 years
Detroit is 0-7 ATS as RD of 3.5-7
Pittsburgh has won 13 of its last 16 at Cincinnati (12-4 ATS).
PHI is 8-1 ATS L9 vs. MIN... though
Minn is 20-9 ATS as HD
Tennessee is 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more
Tennessee is 8-20 ATS as Favs of 3.5 - 7
Tennessee is 2-9-1 ATS after winning by 3 points or less
on the other hand >> Oak is 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites
In the Chicago - Detroit series where Chicago is favored by 5-6 points ...
7 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.

Bears are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win.
(Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Lovie Smith 1-1).
though Lions are 3-8 ATS on the road last 11...
 
Some of these are in no particular order and I tried to highlight a few trends that jump out with limited time ...
 
I'll pick the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week next .... 




 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
hey roberto good luck with the action tommorow bro, you da man
 
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Prospect
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You have been in my prayers.....glad to see you back!
 
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Posted: #5
AFC vs NFC ...from week 6 thread
 
let's start with the AFC vs NFC matchups this week >>>
 
Philadelphia @ NY Jets + 2.5 / 3 >>>Phil16-9
St Louis @ Baltimore - 9.5 / 10 >>>>Balt 22-3
Tennessee -3 @ Tampa Bay >>>TB 13-10
New England - 4.5 / 5.5 @ Dallas >>>NE 48-7
 
Those are your matchups this week ...
Last Week the AFC went 3-3 ATS & 4-2 SU
 
but Pittsburgh, Indianapolis , Buffalo were easy ATS winners
w/ Houston & Tennessee having close calls, and NY Jets
blowing the lead in the 4th quarter ...
 
Point being ....it is imperative to be at least aware when & where these matchups take place, and know that the AFC has shown great superiority not only SU , but also ATS over the last few years ....
 
Also, we are entering the portion of the schedule where the AFC has stepped it up , and no better example is the record of the AFC vs the NFC from week 8 through 15...
where the record for the AFC was 25-8 ATS last year ...
 
While this in itself  doesn't indicate a repeat for this year , it may suggest that as the season wears on , the superior conference will again assert itself when the two conferences collide ....
 
Updating record for AFC vs NFC >>>>
 
AFC vs NFC figures
 
AFC vs NFC ( 2004 - 2007 )  is 104-73 ATS ( 58.7 % )
 
AFC goes 32 - 24 - 2  ATS ( 57.1 % )  vs the NFC for the NFL year 2006-2007 regular season....
 
This year we have >>>
week 1 : AFC  2 - 1 - 1 ATS
week 2 : AFC  2 - 2  ATS
week 3 : AFC  3 - 2 -1 ATS
week 4 : AFC  0 - 2 ATS
week 5 : AFC  3 - 3 ATS
 
through 5 weeks >>> AFC is 10-10-1 ATS vs NFC
through 5 weeks >>>   AFC is 12 - 10 SU vs NFC
*****************************************************************
This will facilitate the updating ....
So, week 6 the AFC went 2-2 SU & 2-2 ATS vs the AFC
 
Week 7 ...there were no games featuring the NFC vs AFC
 
*******************************************************************
 
 
 
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Posted: #6
GL Roberto 
 
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Posted: #7
I see some nice trends against the Titans, I like it, im leaning towards the Raiders myself, good luck man!
 
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Posted: #8
AFC vs NFC
 
So now we enter week 8 ...and here are your matchups ..>>>
 
Cleveland @ St Louis + 3
Indianapolis @ Carolina + 6.5 / 7
NY Giants vs Miami + 9.5 / 10
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay -3.5 / 4
Washington @ New England - 16 / 17
Green Bay @ Denver - 3
 
We see the two strongest teams in the AFC & NFL
being featured in these matchups ...but we also some  decent teams from the NFC representing their conference
The combined record for the AFC teams this week is 23-15 going against teams from the NFC that are 20-18 SU...
 
The following is what resulted from week 8 through 12 last year ...
just for the hell of it ...>>
 
 
*********************** Week 8 *************************************
 
1) Atl @ Cinci ......Line: Cin - 3.5...............Score:  Atl   29-27............ATS.....L
2) Balt @ NO ......Line: Balt + 1.................Score:  Balt 35-22............ATS ...W
3) Jac @ Phil.......Line: Jac + 7.5...............Score: Jac 13-6............... ATS....W      
4) Sea @ KC........Line: KC - 4...................Score: KC 35-28..............ATS....W
5) STL @ SD........Line SD - 9.5.................Score: SD 38-24..............ATS....W
6) NE @ Min.........Line: NE -1...................Score: NE 31-7.................ATS...W
                                             AFC 5-1 ATS
 
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***************************************Week9**************************************************
 
7) Hou @ NYG.......Line: Hou + 13............Score: NYG 14-10.............ATS....W
8) KC @ STL..........Line: KC + 2.5............Score: KC 31-17................ATS...W         
9) GB @ Buff..........Line: Buff - 3.5............Score: Buff 24-10................ATS...W
10) Mia @ Chi..........Line: Mia + 13.............Score: Mia 31-13................ATS...W 
11) Oak @ Sea........Line: Oak + 7..............Score: Sea 16-0.................ATS....L
                                          AFC 4-1 ATS
*********************************Week10******************************************************
 
12) Clev @ Atl...........Line: Clev + 9...............Score: Cle 17-13..............ATS.....W         
13) NO @ Pitt...........Line: Pitt - 6.5...............Score: Pitt  38-31.............ATS....W
                                           AFC : 2-0 ATS
*****************************************Week11**************************************
 
14) Cin @ NO................Line: Cin + 3.5...........Score:  Cin 31-16.................ATS....W
15) Chi @ NYJ...............Line: NYJ + 5.5..........Score:  Chi 10-0..................ATS.....L
16) Minn @ Mia.............Line: Mia - 3...............Score: Mia 24-20.................ATS....W
17) NE @ GB.................Line: NE - 5.5 ...........Score: NE 35-20..................ATS....W
18) Tenn @ Phil.............Line: Ten + 13 ............Score Ten 31-13.................ATS.....W        
19) Indi @ Dallas............Line: Indi + 1..............Score  Dallas 21-14.............ATS.....L
20) Atl @ Bal.................Line: Bal - 3.5.............Score Bal 24-10...................ATS....W
21) NYg @ Jax...............Line: Jax - 4...............Score: Jax 26-10.................ATS....W
                                             AFC 6-2 ATS
*********************************Week12*********************************************************
 
22) Mia @ Det.....................Line: Mia - 3...........Score: Mia 27-10................ATS....W
23) NYg @ Ten....................Line: Ten + 4..........Score: Ten 24-21................ATS.....W         
24) Phil @ Indi.....................Line: Indi - 10..........Score: Indi 45-21................ATS......W
25) ***Chi @ NE......................Line: NE - 4.5 ...........Score NE 17-13...................ATS.....L ***
                                              AFC 3-1 ATS
***( note: some bettors won on NE with the early line of NE - 3...but counting this as a loss for the AFC as all lines are from covers  )
 
*********************************
So, the AFC goes  20-5 ATS last year in this stretch ...
 
This is not a predictor of future performance except that the AFC teams have held a considerable edge in each and every year I have tracked this ...and so far through the first half of the season
the conferences are dead even ATS when facing each other ...
 
It just remains to be seen if the pattern continues or not ....
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Nice to see you online tonight Roberto.....
 
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Legend
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Posted: #12
Good to see you Roberto
 
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Posted: #13
extracting from week 6 thread ....>>>
 
Updating Favorites / Underdogs & Over / Unders
 
This week , we had parity ( going w/ Covers lines as always )
Favs 7
Dogs 7
Overs 7
Unders 7
************
Fav/Over : 4
Fav/Under: 3
Dogs/Over : 3
Dogs/ Under : 4
**********************
Year to date , we have >>>>>>
 
Underdogs leading 43-29-4 ( 59.7 % )
Overs leading 38-37-1 ( 50.7 % )
**********************************************
Now adding week 6 & 7 results >>>>
 
Week 6 :
 
Favs 8
Dogs : 4
Push : 1
Overs : 6
Unders : 7
 
Week 7 :
 
Favs 7
Dogs 7
Overs 6
Unders 8
 
Through 7 weeks update :
 
Underdogs lead 54-44-5 ( 55 . 1 % )
Unders lead 52-50-1 ( 51 % )
 
**********************************************
 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
 
 
Now, short on time ...but on with  the bussiness of the Trend Pick selection  ...
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
yesss here we go!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #16
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
take the---
JAGS -EVERYBODY WATCH THEM GET SPANKED- NO ONE GONNA BET THEM
PANTHERS-LAST BIG TV GAME THEY PLAY SAINTS  AND CRUSH,NEXT WEEK THEY PLAY ON ROAD IN GRASS AT TEN AND DONT COVER, THIS WEEK THEYRE ON ROAD WITH GRASS, +CAROLINA OFF A BYE
MIAMI- WHAT ROBERTTO  SAID, 0-7 ATS ,NYG WIN ATS LAST 5
VIKS-SHOULD HAVE WON LAST WEEK, EAGLES LOST A VICTORY LATE-VIK HOME, AND WHENEVER A SPREAD IS SO LOW, YOU TAKE THE HOME TEAM,,,
RAIDERS-EVERYONE IS HOT BCUS VINCE IS BACK, KERRY COLLINS KILLS VINCE YOUNG,RAIDERS SHOULD OF COVERED  VS SD EXEPT LT 50 YD TD LAST PLAY OF GAME+CULPEPPER 2 TO IN RED ZONE
GB-DENVER SUCKKS, GB SHOULD ME ALOT BEATING WASH,
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Yo Roberto..... What's it gonna be bro???
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #19
waiting for the xxxx pick of the weekend
 
Captain
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Posted: #20
if its Miami ill shoot myself
 
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Posted: #21
The DOGS this week & candidates for a trend pick >>
As usual ...I try to consider only the most lopsided trends ...
and ideally there will not be significant resistance from other conflicting trends ...
This week , I am giving strong consideration to the 0-7 teams Trend featured at the start of this thread ...as they are 10-1 ATS
 
St Louis is one of the 0-7 teams that benefit from the strong 10-1 ATS trend
StLouis  is  20-6 ATS at home off a division game 
St Louis is  22-12-1 ATS when hosting AFC teams.
Cleveland is 5-9-1 ATS on the road  against NFC foes 
Cleveland is  5-13-1 ATS coming off a SU win.
Unfortunately , Cleveland is 17-4 ATS when the total is set @ 40 or more
Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a HD, but
Browns are 7-0 ATS last 7 after allowing more than 30 points per game
Browns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs a team with a losing Home record
Rams are 3-26 ATS after accumulating less than 250 total yards prior game
 
Chicago is 3-10 ATS last 13 road games
Chicago is 1-7 ATS last 8 Home games
Underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings +
7 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. 
Bears are a home favorite that is coming off a 1-3 point road win.
(Teams 17-35 ATS in that situation since 2000; Lovie Smith 1-1).
but >>
Detroit is 3-8 ATS last 11 road games
Detroit is 3-9-1 ATS vs the NFC North
 
Carolina may own some strong trends as a Dog & HD coupled with trends favoring  Home Dogs getting 7 or more ...but Indianapolis owns some trends as well >>
 Teams coming off a 17+ win on MNF are 26-14 ATS since 1999   
Indi is 17-5-1 ATS on the road outside their division.
Indi is 10-3 ATS  off a division road contest.
Carolina is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 Home games
 
Miami is 1-11 ATS during the first half of the past two seasons , though it is one of the 2 teams featured being 0-7 for the year ...where teams in that situation have gone 10-1 ATS in the past
Miami has gone 9-2 ATS as Dogs of more than 6 points
NYG are 9-1 ATS last 10 October games
 
Oak is 2-14-1 ATS after losing SU as favorites
Tennessee is 2-11 ATS after scoring 28 points or more
Tennessee is 8-20 ATS as Favs of 3.5 - 7
Tennessee is 2-9-1 ATS after winning by 3 points or less
Oak is 6-15 ATS in October since 2001.
Oak is 9-20 ATS against conference opponents over last 3 seasons
 
is 2-11 ATS last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards previous game .
& even though this spans more than 20 years ...
Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in the meetings with the Vikings.
 
Cincinnati  Pittsburgh simply owns these guys >>
Pittsburgh has gone 13-3 SU when playing in Cincinnati and 12-4 ATS in the process ...
 
There are some nice trends going on behalf of Buffalo such as them being 9-2 ATS following an ATS win +
16-5 ATS vs a team with a losing record  and trends going against the Jets such as...
 NY being 4-13-1 ATS after allowing 28 points or more , but
in this series the host has gone 8-2 ATS ...
NY has gone 10-5 ATS vs Buff in NY &
5-2 ATS overall ...
 Buff has failed to cash in its last 3 road games overall  , including the only two played this season ...
 
 
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Very nice trend >> HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992 , &
Houston is 16-6 ATS after losing by 10 points or less +
7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. but,
Houston  is  12-21-1 ATS when facing a non-division foe , +
 only 4-13 ATS as non-division dogs of 3 points or more.
San Diego is 13-6 ATS off a double-digit division win.
SD is 6-0 ATS L6 vs. AFC South
The SU winner is 8-0 ATS when Houston faces an AFC-West opponent

Jacksonville 
TB may be 2-8 ATS in week 8 +
Jacksonville is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 games as Dogs +
 11-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss , but
Teams coming off a 17+ loss on MNF are 10-23 ATS since 1999.
JAC is 2-8 ATS L10 after playing on MNF
Problem here is that New Orleans is 8-2 ATS last 10 vs SF...even though NO is 1-8 ATS last 9
 
Need I mention some of New England's favorable trends?
 
 Denver is 1-9 ATS last 10 Home games
1-10 ATS last 11 games as a HF &
3-13 ATS last 16 games overall
Plus , Denver is 4-12 ATS last 16 games vs the NFC North, but
GB is 3-13-2 ATS last 18 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards prior game.
 
 
********************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Not enamored with these week's selections ...and I would have to consider ...St Louis , Detroit, Buffalo , and GB
If we take the AFC vs NFC in consideration ...this would leave Detroit and Buffalo , but it would seem that I will have failed to find the monster trend that has gotten us to 12-1-1 ATS this NFL season...
My first inclination was to go with one of the two 0-7 Team Trends
as I find that both are highly unlikely to lose given the 10-1 ATS history for such teams ...
If I simply eliminate Miami because of their 1-11 ATS trend going against them ...then the Underdog Trend Pick will be the St Louis Rams ...
When you consider Cleveland's porous defense and the healthier state of the Rams Offense , and the possiblity for the Rams to win the game outright in the confines of their own home where they have historically done well , specially as Dogs , this selection seems very reasonable ...
But, I'm afraid I am mixing a bit of capping into the equation , and maybe this week I have no other choice ...
 
You're all welcome to vote for what you think should be the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week ....
otherwise ...we will stay with the Rams ....
 
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #24
 Rams
 
 
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