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Trends & Things NFL 2007-2008 week 6

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ...
 
The great run by the Underdog Trend picks continue with both
San Diego & Carolina as Trend Pick winners from last week ...
 
 
The Underdog Trend pick of the week now sits at 11-1 for the entire NFL year including preseason ...
 
A look back at the picks & the corresponding spreads during this run :
 
Game : Denver + 3 @ San Francisco
Final : Denver 17-13 preseason week 1
WINNER
 
Game : New Orleans + 3.5 @  Cincinnati
Final : New Orleans 27-19 preseason week 2
WINNER
 
Game :  Cincinnati @ Atlanta + 3
 Final :  Atanta 24-19 preseason week 3
WINNER
 
Game: Baltimore @ Atlanta + 3.5
 Final : Atlanta 13-10 preseason week 4
WINNER
 
Game : Carolina + 1.5 @ St Louis
Final : Carolina 27-13  week 1 reg season
WINNER
 
Game : Atlanta + 10 @ Jacksonville
Final : Jacksonville 13-7 week 2 reg season
WINNER
 
Game : Indianapolis @ Tennessee + 7
Final : Indianapolis 22-20 week 2 reg season
WINNER
Game : Oakland + 10 @ Denver
Final : Denver 23-20 week 2 reg season
WINNER
 
Game : Tennessee + 4.5 @ New Orleans
Final : Tennessee 31-14 week 3 reg season
WINNER
 
Game : Green Bay @ Minnesota + 1
Final : Green Bay 23-16 week 4 reg season
LOSER
 
Game : San Diego +1/-1 @ Denver ..line shifted
Final : San Diego 41-3 week 5 reg season
WINNER
 
Game : Carolina + 3.5 @ New Orleans
Final : Carolina 16-13 week 5 reg season
WINNER
 
 
and on to week 6 , we go .....
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #2
What is this trend you speak of

 
Captain
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Posted: #3
On this segment , besides the usual hunt for the Underdog Trend Pick...I want to :
 
Update the AFC vs NFC matchups & records...
Update the Favorites / Dogs & Over/ Unders records YTD
Dig up the records for 5-0 ATS teams from years past
Dig up the records for 0-5 ATS teams from years past
Highlight the mid-week Bet Tracker for this week
Highlight a strong trend for a Fav this week
Highlight a strong trend for an O/U this week
 
 
******************************************************************
 
let's start with the AFC vs NFC matchups this week >>>
 
Philadelphia @ NY Jets + 2.5 / 3
St Louis @ Baltimore - 9.5 / 10
Tennessee -3 @ Tampa Bay 
New England - 4.5 / 5.5 @ Dallas
 
Those are your matchups this week ...
Last Week the AFC went 3-3 ATS & 4-2 SU
 
but Pittsburgh, Indianapolis , Buffalo were easy ATS winners
w/ Houston & Tennessee having close calls, and NY Jets
blowing the lead in the 4th quarter ...
 
Point being ....it is imperative to be at least aware when & where these matchups take place, and know that the AFC has shown great superiority not only SU , but also ATS over the last few years ....
 
Also, we are entering the portion of the schedule where the AFC has stepped it up , and no better example is the record of the AFC vs the NFC from week 8 through 15...
where the record for the AFC was 25-8 ATS last year ...
 
While this in itself  doesn't indicate a repeat for this year , it may suggest that as the season wears on , the superior conference will again assert itself when the two conferences collide ....
 
Updating record for AFC vs NFC >>>>
 
AFC vs NFC figures
 
AFC vs NFC ( 2004 - 2007 )  is 104-73 ATS ( 58.7 % )
 
AFC goes 32 - 24 - 2  ATS ( 57.1 % )  vs the NFC for the NFL year 2006-2007 regular season....
 
This year we have >>>
week 1 : AFC  2 - 1 - 1 ATS
week 2 : AFC  2 - 2  ATS
week 3 : AFC  3 - 2 -1 ATS
week 4 : AFC  0 - 2 ATS
week 5 : AFC  3 - 3 ATS
 
through 5 weeks >>> AFC is 10-10-1 ATS vs NFC
through 5 weeks >>>   AFC is 12 - 10 SU vs NFC
 
 
 
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Veteran
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Posted: #4
hey roberto.....I threw a last minute bet on Buffalo last night because of the whole AFC NFC thing you always be talking about.  So with a 11 point cusion, I jumped on it. 
 
 
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Posted: #5
you think it will catch up to its potential this year like in the previous years?
 
All-Star
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Posted: #6
 RF, Do you think the Chiefs can beat Cin outright.

TY
 
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Posted: #7
Updating Favorites / Underdogs & Over / Unders
 
This week , we had parity ( going w/ Covers lines as always )
Favs 7
Dogs 7
Overs 7
Unders 7
************
Fav/Over : 4
Fav/Under: 3
Dogs/Over : 3
Dogs/ Under : 4
**********************
Year to date , we have >>>>>>
 
Underdogs leading 43-29-4 ( 59.7 % )
Overs leading 38-37-1 ( 50.7 % )
 
************************************************************
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by lennon65:

 RF, Do you think the Chiefs can beat Cin outright.

TY

Did u watch yesterdays game....... No one knows what the hell is going to happen, if we did we would all be RICH!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #9
Robert great info as always.  Keep up the good work.  One small typo Tenn is +3 vs T.B.  I love getting Tenn +3  all over that big. 
 
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Posted: #10
Carolina +4 looks good. Line seems to be a little inflated due to the great run the Cards have been on (10-2 ATS last 12) w/ their dual QB attack?
 
Carolina 3-0 SU vs. Cards last 3
 
  • Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
  • Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
  • Panthers are 25-7-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a road underdog.
  • Panthers are 52-15-2 ATS in their last 69 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Panthers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Panthers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 6.
  • Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

    •  

     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #11
    With Seattle banged up, I really like NO in this spot.
     
  • Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
    •  
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    Posted: #12
    CIN/KC under looks good.
     
    5 out of the last 6 meetings between the 2 has gone below the number.
     
    All-Star
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    Posted: #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zylonist:

    Did u watch yesterdays game....... No one knows what the hell is going to happen, if we did we would all be RICH!!!!!!!



    If Buffalo won outright I would've won Great Giveaway at Station Casinos. I was the only one that had Bills outright.

    I do watch these games, dude
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #14
    Like Jets and STL too.
     
  • Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 6.
  • Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Jets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Jets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
  • Jets are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    •  
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    Posted: #15
    Was on the Phins lastweek and like them this week as well, Oh Yeah......
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #16
    How come you picked New Orleans and you also picked Carolina last week, I was very confused by why you did so.  Will you be picking everygame again this week?
     
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    Posted: #17
    Mid-week Bet Tracker highlight ...>>>>
     
     
    #1 )  NY Giants 89%    total # of bets >>>  6497
            Atlanta     11 %
     
    # 2 ) Cincinnati    88 %  total  # of bets >>> 3171
           Kansas City 12 %
     
    # 3 ) Cleveland       85 %  total # of bets >>>>  3778
           Miami            15 %
     
          New England   85 %   total # of bets >>> 1349
             Dallas          15 %  
     
    Last week .... >>> Mid-week tracker ( Tuesday )
     
    # 1  Dallas 90 %     total # of bets >>> 10312
          Buffalo 10 %
     
    # 2  Green Bay 87 %  total # of bets >>> 7382
          Chicago 13 %
     
    # 3  NY Giants 86 %
           NY Jets    14 %  total # of bets >>> 4755
     
    *******************************************************
     
     
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #18
    This is called the Trends & Things thread .....
    It is meant to dig up trends @ stats that may be useful for the upcoming games ...
     
    I also select an Underdog Trend Pick every week which has up to now been quite successful...
    I picked New Orleans last week before I came up with the Trend on Carolina ....AFTER I had selected NO
     
    The Trend picks from this thread do not count towards my record ...
    My actual  picks are always made on a separate thread ...
     
    No, I will not be picking every game this week ...
     
    I saw an opportunity for hitting 60 % across the board and came up a little short on a few of them ....Nice capping , but average results ...
    Results are all that matter in the end ...
    My magic number seems to be around 5 ...
    though on ocassion I may make what I call blanket picks ....
    An example of this would be If I picked every AFC team on the board...
    I appreciate the contests we participate in ..because it gives me  the results for 3 teamers & 5 teamers ...
    Most cappers , and I do this as well , keep track with their leans ...
     
    Thank You Fat Boy Slim ...Tennessee is actually + 3 ....not -3
     
    I am not going to discuss my leans here , otherwise this thread becomes too hard to read , and loses its purpose ...
     
    But, I will answer that,  Yes, I think that KC can beat Cincinnati outright ...
    As a matter of fact , I think any team in the NFL can beat Cincinnati on any given day these days ...
    Will I bet KC this week ..?
    Too early to tell you ..., but my lean is on KC at the moment ....
     
    Let's get back on track .
    Thank You .
     
     
     
     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #19
    damn, roberto...I thought that you were on New Orleans last week. Wish I would have realized that you were playing Carolina and it was a POW. Thanks for the trends.
     
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    Posted: #20
    New Orleans  was one of my picks last week on my regular thread ...
     
    Basically, I only  start 3 threads every week !
    1) Trends & Things ...
    2) Sunday's picks ( w/ the date )
    3) Monday's picks ( w/ the date )
     
    My POW was not Carolina ...it was Baltimore
    It lost ...though MNF turned out to be my biggest bet ...
     
    This is why I don't like using POW's ...
    I will continue to do so , for record keeping and that is all ...
     
    I made my picks early last week ....then came up with a very strong trend on NO ...
    That trend was : Underdog is 11-0 ATS in this matchup ...( Carolina - New Orleans )
     
    Being that the object of the Underdog Trend Pick is to find such trends , I picked them in addition to the strong trends favoring San Diego ....
     
    Ok...?
     
     
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    Posted: #21
    Roberto, it is Tenn +3 @ TB, I've already jumped on Tenn
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #22

    Roberto's Trend thread is really suttin.  Chiefs getting points at home is a good trend...suttin like 16-5-1.

     
    Veteran
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    Posted: #23
    Thanks for that clarification, Roberto. Appreciate your effort.
     
    Banned
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    Posted: #24
    bump
     
    dont think this should ever be this far down the page...
     
     
    Prospect
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    Posted: #25
    roberto, great work, just wanted to point out that i think you missed balt @ sf in the AFC vs NFC matchup.....another near miss for the AFC.
     
    thanks, daworm
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