Trends & Things 2007-2008 NFL week 3

according to two minute warning ...based on 2005 year numbers only ...(not much statistical data to draw from ..) and a year of the favorite ...taking a side that draws less than 20 % of the action will be profitable .

As for what day of the week has the most meaningful numbers, they don't have any hard research. However last season the teams with less than 20% of the bets on Tuesday fared very well against the spread. This week there were four such teams:

11% Houston
11% Atlanta
17% Jacksonville
18% Chicago

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Here is another angle for you >>>>

that applies to week 3 >>>

Games: San Francisco 2-0 @ Pittsburgh 2-0 &              Indianapolis  2-0 @ Houston 2-0

Looking at 2005 nunbers and looking back , when two 2-0 teams face each other the Home team had a 12-5 ATS record in such games  , and 8-1 ATS if laying more than 5

This week both Houston & Pittsburgh qualify for this angle ..and the Steelers are laying over 5 ...

I have no updated #'s ...

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It means that if you think the Chargers are going to win the game SU, then they are going to cover the spread, too.  Not sure, if that is number is broken down to include when the Chargers are favored or dawgs.  IMHO, that really isn't a great stat since, many teams that win SU more often than not cover the spread.  In fact, there are a couple of posters that bet under that theory.

assuming these numbers are correct ...it means that San Diego has been very good at covering the spread both by virtue of winning games while they were underdogs , and covering the spread when favorites . these percentages leave out the games in which they were dogs and lost ( such as last week ) and when they were favs and lost ...

SD is favored to win against GB by 4.5 on Sunday ...you can still

apply this percentage to the fact that if San Diego wins the game , it will be by more than 4.5 ( given the very high percentage involved )

People taking ML bets on SD for instance might as well lay the points instead. People taking a crack at Green Bay might want to consider the ML bet ....

That is the assumption here.

8-1-1    

leans only :

Pittsburgh , Houston, San Diego, Kansas City , and Tennessee...

subject to change !

GL RobertoFiory

I like Pit, eventhrought they are not underdog.

By the way , where is your friend " Brettjay" ?

GL RobertoFiory

I like Pit, eventhrought they are not underdog.

By the way , where is your friend " Brettjay" ?

I get enjoyment out of the process of making these selections ...This is a hobby of mine ....Even if I didn't wager on the NFL , I would get a kick out of this . I work on something new every year , trying to learn something different ...This is my platform for doing it ....I also like sharing the information , just as I like browsing through these threads and other forums , and sports databases in the hope of finding angles, views , posts that are interesting and will me in my handicapping ...

The thread serves a point of reference for people interested in trends and anyone can provide information they feel is helpful. Another aspect of this thread is the selection of a trend pick.

I began this last year to track the success or failure of such picks . I narrowed down the selection to an underdog side this year , as I feel it is harder to find reasons to back dogs for obvious reasons . This is all experimental and the work in progress .

The selection of the trend picks is not all objective ...as up to now  I have yet to establish any strict parameters for qualifying or eliminating such trend picks . ..

Example : In order for a trend to qualify it must be in the double digits ....10-1 , 13-3 , etc

Like I said before , this is all a work in progress , and having some say in the final choice gives me some flexibilty ...

At times I come across a certain trend system type of play that I never used before ...but basically I consider everything that has a proven record of success and merits attention .

As for the individual trends I try to eliminate what I call the " noise " and foucs on the most solid trend in a matchup ...

for example :

 then ,  I will find that on  ocassion  two such trends back opposite sides of the mathup . Those are what I call conflicting trends .

for example :

Ok now from the above trends ...I would call all thetrends in red that I highlighted weak trends ...

so you eliminate them .....

As for the other ones ...in the 4-1 ...5-1.....6-1 range  depends ...

I prefer focusing on stronger trends like the Tennessee trend ....

but sometimes in combination smaller trends make for a strong trend ...

the hard part sometimes is eliminating redundant trends ...

as such may be the case if Pittsburgh has been favored in the last 5 home games ...That being the case >>>

you can narrow down these 2 >>>

Pitt is 6-1 SU last 7 home games  &  

Pitt is 6-1 ATS last 7 home games

anyway to me .....all these trends on this mtachup listed

by miners don't amount to much ...and in fact if anything ..they contradict each other ...as Pittsburgh has been hot at home , but the 49ers have played Pitt tough ...

Then you begin to wonder when was the last time Sf played Pitt...

how many times have they faced each other in the last decade...

How Pitts has played at home recently coupled with how San Francisco has played on the road in a similar span is more relevant .....

Really, its all about simplifying , eliminating , and focusing on the

trends that jump out ...

No offense taken ...really whatever picks I actually have I post on a separate thread every week ...with the date of the matchup ...

As for the total between these teams that hardly ever meet ...

I consider that trend very WEAK ...by itself

 ..4 scattered games going back a decade ....LOl...not much there ...even @ 4-0 to the under ...anyways ...here were the results >>>>>