Will there be an 0-16 team in the 2009 NFL Regular
Season?
I took yes.
Yes at +1000
50 bucks to win 500 bucks
Thoughts on this bet? good bet?
The odds are too low. But its worth a decent shot as basically you're betting on the Rams or the Bucs (which have a very tough schedule but are a better team than STL) to go 0-16. Remember, the Rams and Tenn play each other in Tenn later in the year so really you're only going to have Stl. or TB as 0-16 candidates.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MushEsid:
Will there be an 0-16 team in the 2009 NFL Regular
Season?
I took yes.
Yes at +1000
50 bucks to win 500 bucks
Thoughts on this bet? good bet?
The odds are too low. But its worth a decent shot as basically you're betting on the Rams or the Bucs (which have a very tough schedule but are a better team than STL) to go 0-16. Remember, the Rams and Tenn play each other in Tenn later in the year so really you're only going to have Stl. or TB as 0-16 candidates.
You have a great shot at this - look at Bucs schedule, I don't think they will any. Rams may get 1 or 2, best chance probably next weekend when they visit Detroit. Titans only only other winless team, I think they will beat Jags next week at home, but they certainly will get a few victories anyway.
0
You have a great shot at this - look at Bucs schedule, I don't think they will any. Rams may get 1 or 2, best chance probably next weekend when they visit Detroit. Titans only only other winless team, I think they will beat Jags next week at home, but they certainly will get a few victories anyway.
Initially I thought this was a very bad bet. However, after looking at the schedule and doing the math, it's not quite as bad as I thought.
As Rain pointed out, there are at most just two teams that may still go winless. (And yes, that's probably Tampa and St. Louis.)
Assume each week both of their opponents have a 90% chance to beat them. Thus, there's an 81% chance they will both remain winless after this week. (90% x 90% = 81%)
There's about a 65% chance (81% x 81%) they will both remain winless after the next two weeks.
After three weeks we're already down to 53%.
The chances of both remaining winless four weeks from now is about 43%. (Again, this is all assuming each of their opponent's has a 90% chance of beating them each week.)
Skipping ahead, the chances of them both remaining winless after week 16 is about 12%. If you're getting 10 to 1, you're in the ballpark. Of course, if an 85% chance is used initially each time, instead of 90%, the overall chances are reduced to less than 4%. If so, you should be getting 25 to 1 for your money, making 10 to 1 a horrible bet.
0
Initially I thought this was a very bad bet. However, after looking at the schedule and doing the math, it's not quite as bad as I thought.
As Rain pointed out, there are at most just two teams that may still go winless. (And yes, that's probably Tampa and St. Louis.)
Assume each week both of their opponents have a 90% chance to beat them. Thus, there's an 81% chance they will both remain winless after this week. (90% x 90% = 81%)
There's about a 65% chance (81% x 81%) they will both remain winless after the next two weeks.
After three weeks we're already down to 53%.
The chances of both remaining winless four weeks from now is about 43%. (Again, this is all assuming each of their opponent's has a 90% chance of beating them each week.)
Skipping ahead, the chances of them both remaining winless after week 16 is about 12%. If you're getting 10 to 1, you're in the ballpark. Of course, if an 85% chance is used initially each time, instead of 90%, the overall chances are reduced to less than 4%. If so, you should be getting 25 to 1 for your money, making 10 to 1 a horrible bet.
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