Saints +6

Quote Originally Posted by PistolPete21:

Well, we've got the sexy Super Bowl matchup. And I know, I know everyone and their mother thinks the Colts win this game. Who can blame them the way Manning dissected the Jets last week? By comparison, the Saints were grossly outgained and outplayed, squeaking by with disastrous Vikings turnovers and questionable officiating.

Despite what the majority will say about this game, I submit to you--please, please, do not let the last game form your opinions on this game. Both of these teams were 13-0. Both tanked the final two weeks of the season, resting starters and the like. The main difference between these two is that the Saints, unlike the Colts, were not outgained in the majority of their games. Consider this, the Colts have been outgained in 7 of their last 11 games. Comparatively, the Saints are the league's best in terms of yards per play.

I think the Saints have a serious statistical edge in this one, and for them to be 6 point underdogs is pure lunacy/overreaction. On top of this, I think the situation favors the Saints as well. I like the fact that they're coming off a poor performance, as it should undoubtedly keep them entirely focused on improving and playing at a much higher level. Meanwhile, the Colts, as far as I'm concerned, turned in a flawless performance against the Jets. Pretty easy to get complacent, if you ask me. Especially with Caldwell as their coach.

Saints defense is a sieve, and I accept that. What the Saints defense does exceptionally well, though, is force turnovers. I think this is really the only way a defense can get in Manning's way. On the flip, the Saints have an offense capable of keeping it away from Manning for long periods of time.

Saints +6  (10 units), I plan to buy off as I expect this line to close closer to 4.5.

Quote Originally Posted by Bucks10:

Good reason to bet the Saints...Colts will be complacement.

 

 

It's the Super Bowl' Colts are better on both sides of the ball. Good luck

Quote Originally Posted by Splooge:

congrats u r in minority and who gives a shit about public perception yippyyyy.  The bottom line is the matchup and it always will be. Too much is made of how the game is perceieved and too little made of xx's and oo's time and time again when it comes to super bowls.  it's just another frickin god damn game why blow it up more hen it has to be and why the need to have to play it at all??  My thought here are why take the worst possible # at less than a td when you can take better odds w/ saints $ line.  Don't get me wrong here I'm betting the ranch on the Colts only because they are clearly the better team top to bottom and dedense wins this late in season but if going dog vs greatest QB all time why not just take em straight up?  it's clearly the better play if u think saints will be in the game.  +6 what s shitty line for an underdog being beat by a simple touch.  Its as good as getting 3.5.  absolute weak # and only reason to play saints is to bang it up to 7.5 for any prayer.  Its all nice and lovely to want the dog but let's be real....Manning is going to rip this below average defense to absol;ute fucking shreds!  They will be able to go full tilt start to finish and Saints won't have any answers w/ indy defense one sided without significant rushing attack as rookie tavkle will be lambasted.  GL w/ your ballsy play +6 but u may as well just play $ line and hope manning breaks his leg because that's what it will take for saints to have a prayer in this game.  Retaliate all you want to my comments but come back to me kate sunday evening for a taste of reality.  6 pts....please.  I would not feel comfortable w/ anything less than 10 with this saints defense.  They just suck for a superbowl defense if u go back and look at all who hasm played the big one.  Find me a defense this average who has beat a team with as prolifice an offense as the colts.  Think about it 

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Manning lights all defenses up. Did you not see what he did to the #1 defense last week? Is he really going to do that much better this time? You can't get much better.

People forget that both these teams started 13-0 and as Pete points out, the Saints were probably the better team. This line should be a FG at most and again, as Pete says in the first post it is inflated simply due to last week's results and how the Colts seemingly took apart the Ravens (a team that was supposed to matchup well against them) two weeks ago.

Who cares about the matchups? Both of these teams have elite offenses and IMO very similar defenses. New Orleans looked shaky last week but they shut down Arizona the week before. And as has been pointed out, this Saints offense isn't the Jets or Ravens scared, conservative, lack of big play offense. They can move it any which way you can think of. The Jets hit a big trick play last week taking advantage of the Colts over pursuing and I have no doubts an aggressive Sean Payton will try to do the same (the Saints already connected on a flee-flicker for a TD in the Cards game).

Both teams will move it at will IMO. A turnover will probably determine the winning score. The game will probably be tight all the way through with the team who has the ball last either in position to win it or tie it. 6 points just seems like too many for Saints backers. 7 would be insane. Underdogs have covered 6 of the last 8 Super Bowls including 3 times as +7, +7 and +6 in which the favorite won the game. It's the Super Bowl, the games are tight and I think this one will be too.