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Road team laying 3.5 points

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Posted: #1
we have 5 road teams laying 3.5 points against the home team this week..

Det @ Min

NYJ @ Oak

Balt @ St Louis

Ari @ Sea

GB @ Chi


Which Home team has the best chance to win ATS or win outright ??

Which away team has the best chance to cover the -3.5 ??

is there any past trends to watch ?

i personally like the Ravens to cover after a loss last week. Plus Rams have a short week. However, i hate to bet against hometeam with 0-2 record..

i also like Ari, since Seahawks look terrible.. but once again, they are 0-2 and playing at home..

best game is Jets -3.5, IMO. Oakland relies heavily on the run and jason campbell is awful QB. Jets should be able to stop the run since they will cover man to man.

two games i am not sure about is the GB and Det..

Min have played well (especially the 1st half) against Det in he past.. is this the week Det comes back down to earth ? I wouldn't be surprised with Min ML win.

another big question over GB @ Chi... rematch of last year's NFC championship game.. i think this comes to a field-goal win at the end.
 
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Posted: #2

Which Home team has the best chance to win ATS or win outright ??

Det @ Min


Which away team has the best chance to cover the -3.5 ??

NYJ @ Oak

Balt @ St Louis

GB @ Chi

No opinion on Ari @ Sea

Those are some of my system plays this week

GL



 
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Posted: #3
Im not gonna say I can completely agree with your picks.  I will say I like the process you are using.
 
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Posted: #4
Ravens have the best shot of covering
 
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Posted: #5
People always carry over last years stuff or stupid assumptions into future games not considering how good/bad teams are. A bad team will not change over night. Detroit is a very good team right now there's no way you compare them with Miny. I was hoping to see a spread around 6.5 or there about. They won TB that won Miny what does that tell you. How can a good team give up a game almost won after 1st half - Miny did just that. 
As for GB/CHI wait and see.... it all comes down to who gets cut on plays and i bet you chicago will. Worst Chicago will do is keep the game close. I don't care about Packers beating Chi during last years playoff. Dont think Packers don't know about the game last year and won't be fired up for Chi. This game PACKERS win by DD.
 
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Posted: #6
The play for Min/Det is Vikings ML 1st half
 
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Posted: #7
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by ellogovna227:

The play for Min/Det is Vikings ML 1st half

if the Vikings are up at half I'm gonna hammer them as a 2nd half play they aren't gonna blow the lead 3 games in a row

 
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Posted: #9
Home team to win: Vikes

Away team to cover: Pack
 
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Posted: #10
careful betting against the lions
 
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Posted: #11
The Lions are 0-12 SU past 12 visits at Minnesota.
 
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Posted: #12
i'm a huge vikes fan, but had SD in a ml parlay in wk. 1 & took vikes week 2.  i'm not afraid to bet against the vikes & i do it often, just like i made a killiing this summer betting against the twins..

having said that I love the vikings in this spot..   let's see here, you have a lions squad that everyone is in love with, they win 48-3 against the chefs, and in wk. 1 the lions beat tb 27-20 & really wasn't that close w/ tb scoring late... matt stafford looks like an absolute stud, calvin johnson is a freak & best gives them a great threat in the backfield w/ his speed.  there D is still suspect and there strength is def. there offense.  Last week agaisnt the chiefs the D stepped up, but you can't take a lot from that when they know there is no run/pass threat & they can put 6 db's on the field knowing chiefs have to pass & because there was no Jamal charles..  the lions are a good team no doubt & they're gonna compete in this division, i just think it's a good spot for a letdown.

 then we have the vikes, all people see is two terrible 2h's..  this team looked amazing in the 2 1h & the second half last week they didn't execute a play.  The dome is a really tough place to play, and that defense is gonna do everything they can to put pressure on Stafford.  williams is back & that will really help allen & robison.  best won't get anything on the ground so expect 40+ passes from stafford.  i think calvin will have a huge day, but vikes offense can run all over the detroit defense..  this is a must win game at home for the vikes at a very tough place to play.  it's gonna be a tough win, but the vikings have players that expect to win.  they don't care that people projected them to win 6.5 games this year they expect to win..

that's a long writeup & it's my fav. team so might not be helpful, but as a home dog i expect the vikes to step up.  like +3.5 a lot.  expect a full game for the vikes & not just 1 good half.

l
 
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Posted: #13
Oakland has the best chance of winning, Jets have Balty and NE next, possible letdown.

GB has the best chance to cover, Bears are a mess right now. Forte bitching about his contract the week of the GB game is all you need to know about about where these guys heads are at right now.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Stevedore:

Oakland has the best chance of winning, Jets have Balty and NE next, possible letdown.

GB has the best chance to cover, Bears are a mess right now. Forte bitching about his contract the week of the GB game is all you need to know about about where these guys heads are at right now.
i agree about the bears being a mess right now..but this will be chance for them to re-play last year's game.. and maybe win against GB this time. all i know is they will be up for this game.

i've watched oakland @ Den and @ Buf. They have good running game and and few talented players on D. But they are undisciplined and emotional. On the other hand, Defense travels well on the road and Jets will be bringing the best D in NFL to oakland. They will stop the run and force Campbell to throw.. and Campbell sucks under pressure.

i like the fact that balty is playing StL on short week.. but i just can't trust Raven's secondary seeing how Hasselback had his way with them..

i do like Min playing at home vs their div rival Lions
 
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Posted: #15
btw on StL game, if Stephen Jackson doesn't play, i'd prob wager on Balty..

if s jackson plays, maybe no play for me.
 
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Posted: #16
Bears and Rams
 
 
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Posted: #17

like minny here as well

<<<<-----even though i am a bit biased

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