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Notes for Trends & Things thread wk 8

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dl36

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Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 3:47 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

Right, but I have a 6-1 trend from this year in the NFL, that's been narrowed down as part of a larger 19-7 trend (YTD) that is a play against TEN

But it goes against the favs off a bye trend that is also very strong

My tie breaker might just be the fact that JAX is 3-0 ATS vs. their division this year.

This other trend has just been too solid to ignore, the only loss was week 3 when NE fit as a play against when they really shouldn't have.

Appreciate your thoughts though RF

What is your trend?

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quicksandAA

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 30

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 6:39 AM ET #27

Hey GREAT info,, I like the BAL Pick but im going to stay away from TEN, I know they had injurys in there secondary. I like the Giants Also is there any trends for them when coming off two losses? I dont think they will drop three in a row.

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RobertoFiory

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Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 2:27 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by sho$money:

RF, wouldn't Detroit fall under this trend too? Why aren't they a play?

All teams coming off a bye that are favored . Yes , Detroit falls under this category .
My answer was in reference to the question about teams coming off a bye that are facing each other .

Tennessee and Jacksonville are both coming off a bye .
Tennessee is favored .
Baltimore and Denver are both coming off a bye .
Baltimore is favored .
Detroit is coming off a bye facing St Louis ( who is not )
Detroit is favored .
Seattle is coming off a bye facing Dallas ( who is not )
Seattle is an underdog .

The teams that are favored coming off a bye this week are :
Baltimore, Tennessee, Detroit

In light of the fact that there are 2 games this week where the teams involved are coming off a bye , I will post results from those matchups .

Secondly, In light of the fact that the three teams that qualify this week are small favorites , I will post results using those parameters ( something like teams fav <= 4 coming off abye )

Lastly, I believe you can't follow a trend halfway , or pick and chose what you like , because then all you're doing is looking for validation for what you already like and ignoring the rest .

Also, if you involve other variables , you are missing the point .

Part of the object of this thread was to locate a gem or two along the way that was simple and easily verifiable .

Post-bye week teams were once a good bet against , and I have posted concrete numbers from another site involving a number of years going into the 2001 season were that the case .

For the past 4 years ( 2008-2009 ) ( 2007-2008) 2006-2007) checked by yours truly & ( 2005-2006 ) provided by another poster , favorites coming off a bye week have been
I don't care who they are playing , where they are playing , who is hurt, what the weather is like , or anything else because these teams
( over 100 of them ! ) have covered over 70 % of the time .

This trend won't last forever and it may end this week .
In the meantime , I am on the lookout for the next one >
Do what you want with the information , but don't forget :

K.I.S.S.

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Quote Originally Posted by sho$money:

RF, wouldn't Detroit fall under this trend too? Why aren't they a play?

All teams coming off a bye that are favored . Yes , Detroit falls under this category .
My answer was in reference to the question about teams coming off a bye that are facing each other .

Tennessee and Jacksonville are both coming off a bye .
Tennessee is favored .
Baltimore and Denver are both coming off a bye .
Baltimore is favored .
Detroit is coming off a bye facing St Louis ( who is not )
Detroit is favored .
Seattle is coming off a bye facing Dallas ( who is not )
Seattle is an underdog .

The teams that are favored coming off a bye this week are :
Baltimore, Tennessee, Detroit

In light of the fact that there are 2 games this week where the teams involved are coming off a bye , I will post results from those matchups .

Secondly, In light of the fact that the three teams that qualify this week are small favorites , I will post results using those parameters ( something like teams fav <= 4 coming off abye )

Lastly, I believe you can't follow a trend halfway , or pick and chose what you like , because then all you're doing is looking for validation for what you already like and ignoring the rest .

Also, if you involve other variables , you are missing the point .

Part of the object of this thread was to locate a gem or two along the way that was simple and easily verifiable .

Post-bye week teams were once a good bet against , and I have posted concrete numbers from another site involving a number of years going into the 2001 season were that the case .

For the past 4 years ( 2008-2009 ) ( 2007-2008) 2006-2007) checked by yours truly & ( 2005-2006 ) provided by another poster , favorites coming off a bye week have been
I don't care who they are playing , where they are playing , who is hurt, what the weather is like , or anything else because these teams
( over 100 of them ! ) have covered over 70 % of the time .

This trend won't last forever and it may end this week .
In the meantime , I am on the lookout for the next one >
Do what you want with the information , but don't forget :

K.I.S.S.

RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 3:17 PM ET #29

1) Results for teams coming off a bye facing each other
2) Results for teams coming off a bye and favored by <= 4

I am only checking last year's results :

1) Teams facing each other off abye

Week 5 : Seattle @ NYG - 7 ( both off a bye )
NYG win 44-6 ( Favored teams wins ATS )

Week 8 : Atlanta @ Philadelphia -9.5 ( both off abye )
Philadelphia wins 27-14 ( Favored team wins ATS )

Week 11: Dallas -1 @ Washington ( both off a bye )
Dallas wins 14-10 ( Favored team wins ATS )

Results : Teams off a bye facing each other resulted in the favored team going 3-0 ATS

2) Favs of <= 4 coming off a bye :

Week 3 :
Baltimore -1 won 28-10 ( wins ATS )
Note : The Baltimore & Houston game was canceled in week 2 , so that became their bye week
Week 5 :
Indianapolis - 3 won 31-27 ( wins ATS )
New England - 3 won 30-21 ( wins ATS )
Week 8 :
Denver - 4 lost 17-26 ( Lost ATS )
Week 10 :
Dallas - 1 won 14-10 ( Won ATS )
Tampa Bay - 4.5 won 19-13 ( Won ATS )

2) Results Favs of <= 4 were 5-1 ATS last year

******************************

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 3:26 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by stussy:

my mnf record.. 14-2..

next weeks Saints -10

You're having a run on MNF like the one I had in 2006 where I finished 15-2 Monday Sep 17 2007 NFL pick week 2

Very impressive stussy ...
Keep it up !

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 4:24 PM ET #31

Now ...going back to the after-bye week trend ...
If you're looking to break these 3 teams up , I'll throw some information out there :
Backing Denver >>
Denver is 9-2 ATS past 11 after a bye ( 0-1 ATS LY )
Undefeated teams off a bye are 29-8-1 ATS ( not my #'s )
( 1-0 YTD with New Orleans covering )

There is some irony here :

Tennessee is winless coming off a bye ( 0-6 SU/ATS )
Denver is undefeated coming off a bye ( 6-0 SU/ATS )

It was only a year ago when we were talking about Tennessee being undefeated ( 7-0 SU / ATS at the time ) facing the Green Bay Packers who were coming off a bye week .
It was week 9
Tennessee @ home was favored by 3.5 points
over/under was 41.5

Tennessee won that game in dramatic fashion against Green Bay
19-16 extending their winning streak to 8-0 SU but suffering their first ATS defeat by half a point . ( now 1-7 ATS )

Fast forward to 2009 and Tennessee finds itself @ home in week 8 trying to get is first win both SU & ATS.
What a difference a year makes !

This year it is the Denver Broncos who find themselves where the Titans were last year , still undefeated both SU/ATS

The line for Denver playing Baltimore this week is eerily similar to the Tennessee-GB line of last year .
Denver ( 6-0 SU/ATS ) is 3.5 point favorites and the Over/Under is 41

This may definitely be a week to consider buying half a point

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WinsNow999

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8093

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 4:59 PM ET #32

Roberto..

Thanks for infor...and hard work to put in on these puzzles....

Denver wins by three over Ravens

Rams gets first win over Dets...

Thanks again....love to read your thread....

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 5:25 PM ET #33

Do you believe in reincarantions ?
If you don't , maybe you should

Tennessee has yet to show any signs of life , but that's because the Titans really perished and have been reincarnated as the Denver Broncos this year.

No respect, stifling defense , solid special teams, game manager in the qb position , flying under the radar, winning close games and 6-0 SU/ATS and counting ....

It must be the same team !

All kidding aside , let me point out an uncanny parallel between these teams thus far .

Denver Broncos of 2009
Tennessee Titans of 2008

Points given up by Denver after 6 weeks of play :
7,6,3,10,17,23 = 66 points for an average of 11 PPG

Points given up by Tennessee last year through 6 weeks of play :
10,7,12,17,10,10 = 66 points for an average of 11 PPG

Wow , no argument there ...
These teams have given up precisely the same amount of points through 6 games played !

*********************

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 5:58 PM ET #34

Large Spreads : 2009-2010

Spreads of 9 or 9.5

YTD : 8-6-0

week 1 : 0-0-0

week 2 : 0-1-0

week 3 : 1-0-0

week 4 : 4-1-0

week 5 : 0-1-0

week 6 : 1-2-0

week 7 : 2-1-0

Spreads of >= 10 < 14

YTD : 5-4-0

week 1 : 1-2-0

week 2 : 1-1-0

week 3 : 1-0-0

week 4 : 1-0-0

week 5 : 1-1-0

week 6 : 0-0-0

week 7 : 0-0-0

Spreads of >= 14

YTD : 6-2-0

week 1 : 1-0-0

week 2 : 0-0-0

week 3 : 0-0-0

week 4 : 0-0-0

week 5 : 2-0-0

week 6 : 1-2-0

week 7 : 2-0-0

Estimated lines for week 8 :

9 or 9.5 >>> Seattle @ Dallas - 9.5

10 to 13.5 >>> Carolina @ Arizona - 10 , Atlanta @ New Orleans - 10 ,

San Francisco @ Indianapolis - 11.5

14 or over >>> San Diego - 16.5

Overall Doudle digit favorites are 11-6 ATS YTD

This is in sharp contrast to last year where DD Favorites went

11-21 ATS !
Not even mid-way through this season and the DD favorites covering have already matched last season's overall.

*************************

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 7:02 PM ET #35

Until recently teams that were playing B2B road games and would lose the first game SU were very good sides to be on the second road game .

Last 3 full seasons ( 2006-2008 ) teams that played B2B road games and lost first SU were 65-38 ATS ( 63.1 % )on their second road game .

That percentage is a good estimate as I checked all of last year's teams that played B2B road games and the teams that lost the first road game SU were 26-11 ATS the following road game .

I added these numbers to the ones posted on the article >>>

2006 : 19-10 ATS

2007 : 20-17 ATS

That's how i arrived at 65-38 ATS .

This year, however this trend has started on the opposite end >
So far , teams playing B2B road games are 3-9 ATS YTD after losing first road game SU

Latest victim was Chicago which lost @ Atlanta , and then got smoked @ Cincinnati
The list of teams :
Atlanta Lost SU @ NE then won ATS @ SF
Carolina lost SU @ Atlanta then lost ATS @ Dallas
Chicago lost SU @ Atlanta then lost ATS @ Cincinnati
Cleveland lost SU @ Denver then lost ATS @ Baltimore

Dallas lost SU @ Denver then lost ATS @ Kansas City

Houston lost SU @ Arizona then won ATS @ Cincinnati
NYJ lost SU @ NO then lost ATS @ Miami
Oak lost SU @ Houston then lost ATS @ NYG
Phil lost SU Oakland then won ATS @ Wash
PITT lost SU @ Chicago then lost ATS @ Cin

TB lost SU Wash then lost ATS @ Phil

Tenn lost SU @ NY Jets then lost ATS @ Jacksonville

Week 8 >>

Minnesota Vikings lost SU @ Pittsburgh then ??? @ Green Bay

SF lost SU @ Houston then ??? @ Indianapolis

I would like to see where this ends up . It may just be that as the season progresses with lines getting tighter and most of the teams in this scenario being dogs that it becomes a good play . I am thinking that this might be a good trend in the second half this year.
We'll see.

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 7:19 PM ET #36

Week 7 Trend Picks : Results
3-6-1

Favorites : 2-0

Indianapolis ...WON
Dallas ....WON

Underdogs : 0-2

Kansas City ...Lost
Oakland ... Lost
Chicago was omitted as they ended up as favs

Over/Unders : 1-4-1

GB-Clev Over 41.5 ( scored 40 ) ...LOST
Minn-Pitt Over 46.5 ( scored 44 ) ... LOST
SD-KC Over 44 ( scored 44 ) , Pushed
SF-Hou Over 44.5 ( scored 45 ) ...WON
Atl-Dallas Under 47.5 ( scored 58 )... LOST
Chi-Cin Under 42.5 ( scored 55 ) ..LOST

Tried out a few different things ...but didn't work out
Covers scoreboard determines all lines

******************

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 8:29 PM ET #37

Underdog trend pick will be based on this >>>

:This is not a prime spot to back the Texans (who are the only road favorite this week in the NFL), as Houston owns a 4-16 ATS mark in franchise history on the road off a home win.
Also, the Texans have struggled against the AFC East recently, going 0-6 ATS their last six, including a Week 1 loss at home to the Jets as a three-point favorite.

The Bills have somehow scratched out victories the last two weeks, beating the Jets in overtime, then holding off the Panthers in Charlotte. Under Dick Jauron, Buffalo is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog off a SU 'dog win, winning outright as seven-point underdogs last week at Carolina "

Buffalo Bills are the Underdog Trend Pick

The favorites will be :

Tennessee , Baltimore , Detroit

************************************************************

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DiscoD69

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 7937

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 8:49 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

What is your trend?

These guys and their YPPT system got me thinking, when I first came accross YPPT I just looked at the offensive stats, and use it for different things when capping.

But I went and checked an original use of it to see how it's done so far... it applies to the bottom 5 ranked teams in terms of offensive YPPT.

keeping in mind they change every week (I'm just going off the statfox #'s as well)

The bottom 5 teams are 7-19 ATS this year, and 1-6 when favoured. That one win was NE in week 3 when they were ranked 28th but lets be real the Pats are not a bottom 5 YPPT team. So I sort of look at it as a perfect trend or sorts.

This week the bottom 5 teams are:

CLE (29th)
STL (32nd)
OAK (31st)
TEN (30) who are favs so they meet the sub group.

I don't remember ever seeing so many bottom 5 teams favoured and you guys can clearly see why. They shouldn't be laying points to anyone.

So the play would be on JAX who are 3-0 ATS vs. their division.

But this contradicts the favs off a bye trend with the Titans

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GunShard

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Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1534

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 8:50 PM ET #39

I wouldn't trust the bye trend for Broncos vs Ravens. I think they both cancelled each other out.

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DiscoD69

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Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 7937

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 8:52 PM ET #40

And TEN is starting VY too

That's two tiebreakers on JAX

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GunShard

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Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1534

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 8:58 PM ET #41

Bills have alot of injured compared to the Texans. I still believe the Texans will win. But the trend says Bills to win. Let see what happens.

Also, you forgot to add Bears vs Browns on the Double Digit Favorite trend.

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 9:08 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by GunShard:

Bills have alot of injured compared to the Texans. I still believe the Texans will win. But the trend says Bills to win. Let see what happens.

Also, you forgot to add Bears vs Browns on the Double Digit Favorite trend.

thanks ...

Estimated lines for week 8 :

9 or 9.5 >>> Seattle @ Dallas - 9.5

10 to 13.5 >>>

Carolina @ Arizona - 10 ,

Atlanta @ New Orleans - 10 ,

San Francisco @ Indianapolis - 11.5 ,

Cleveland @ Chicago - 13.5

14 or over >>> San Diego - 16.5

Overall Doudle digit favorites are 11-6 ATS YTD

This is in sharp contrast to last year where DD Favorites went

11-21 ATS !
Not even mid-way through this season and the DD favorites covering have already matched last season's overall.

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DiscoD69

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 7937

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 9:16 PM ET #43

11-6

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THE-KID

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 4755

Posted: Oct. 30, 2009 - 11:06 PM ET #44

Thanks for the effort man!

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SarasotaSlim

Covers Rehab

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 35123

Posted: Oct. 31, 2009 - 12:16 AM ET #45

"We have a trend that is hitting at over 70 % consitently for the last 4 years and it is as simple as they get ..." Roberto ...

Don't bend the trend .............

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softballmaniac

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2984

Posted: Oct. 31, 2009 - 10:21 AM ET #46

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RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 31, 2009 - 7:26 PM ET #47

Trend Picks are :
Baltimore, Tennessee, Detroit
Buffalo

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slomotion

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2852

Posted: Nov. 1, 2009 - 1:31 AM ET #48

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pipedoctor

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 8402

Posted: Nov. 1, 2009 - 1:09 AM ET #49

professor Fiory........you, my friend are a MACHINE!!

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JFEEZEE

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 8019

Posted: Nov. 1, 2009 - 1:54 AM ET #50

NICE WORK

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Notes for Trends & Things thread wk 8

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