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Notes for Trends & Things thread wk 8

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Posted: #1

I will use this thread to gather material , then repost it on officlal trends & Things thread on friday .

The usual topics will be discussed and updated  such as Favorites after bye week trends ...

Feel free to comment , correct, and specially add any stats , information , trends that you feel may be useful for the upcoming week or weeks .

Thank YOU.

week 8 >>

NOTES for Trends & Things week 8 to be reposted offcially  friday :
 
NFC vs AFC
 
Week 7 matchups :
 
San Francisco @ Houston - 3  ...AFC won SU & pushed ATS
Indianapolis - 13  @ St Louis  ...AFC won SU & ATS
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh - 4  ...AFC won SU & ATS
Chicago @ Cincinnati -1  ...AFC won SU & ATS
New England - 14.5 @ Tampa Bay ...AFC won SU & ATS
Buffalo @ Carolina - 7 ... AFC won SU & ATS
 
Notes : AFC kicked the NFC 's ass !
Pure and simple ...
The 2 worst teams from this group were from the NFC and played at home against ( arguably ) the best 2 teams , both from the AFC.
While New England and Indianapolis were playing 2 of the very worst teams in the NFL and did what they were supposed to do  , Chicago embarassed  the NFC conference , Carolina further damaged the NFC's conference reputation , and while Minnesota and SF came oh, so very close it would be only SF that would save this wounded conf. from an absolutely disastrous week . 
 
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This all amounts to a sweep SU by the AFC ( 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS ) in week 7 of the 2009-2010 season.
Will the NFC ever recover from this thrashing ?
With these results , the AFC has now won 9 out of the last 10 interconference games played ( 9-1 SU ) , while going 8-1-1 ATS in the process.
This should be good enough to take the YTD lead , but hardly enough to declare them supreme . 
Keep in mind that the AFC was favored in nearly every contest in week 7 , while the NFC still holds an edge when favored and has been in that role more often than its counterpart.
The usual steady NFC teams such as Tampa Bay , Carolina , and Washington have now joined ranks with St Louis and Detroit among the very worst in all of football.  These 5 NFC teams are a combined
5-28 SU overall , and when facing AFC opponents they are 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS .
The reality is that these bottom dwellers can't win against anyone .
When we look at the power rankings ( covers week 8 ) we see the bottom 5 teams and 4 of them belong to the NFC .
Flip the chart around and 4 of the top 5 teams in the NFL belong to the AFC conference .
Yet, the AFC conference holds a modest lead , and this coming on the heels of a total spanking by the AFC teams at the expense of the NFC.
 
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Posted: #3
Why is that ?
Indianapolis is certainly doing its part , making a mockery of the NFC west ( and the NFC in general by association )
The Colts have won and covered all 3 of the games so far going 3-0 SU & ATS vs Seattle, Arizona , St Louis )
 It will be up to San Francisco to stop the bleeding this week and avoid the sweep .
Likewise , New England,  Cincinnati and Denver have taken care of bussiness by going a combined 5-0 SU & ATS vs the NFC ...
 
So, who is helping the NFC's cause ?
Try Pittsburgh ...
The Steelers , owners of a 5-2 overall record needed help last week to actually win and cover their game against one of the NFC's best hopes : Minnesota Vikings
So,  It is partly  because of teams like Pittsburgh who failed to cover the spread vs the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears giving them a 1-2 ATS record .
When facing the Arizona Cardinals in the SB , Pitt also failed to cover the spread perhaps setting a pattern to look out for .
During their  SB run the Steelers of 2008-2009 lost only 4 games the entire season , but 2 of them were against NFC opponents failing to cover the spread in either of their losses . ( 1 as dogs )
Pittsburgh's last NFC opponent won't arrive until 12/20/2009 when the Green Bay Packers pay them a visit .
 
So, who else is helping the NFC's cause ?
Look no further than the NFC's best team : The New Orleans Saints
They are helping their own cause as well , but already 3 opponents have fallen victim to this NFC juggernaut who seem to care less which conference the opposing team represents dispatching them all with equal disdain .
New Orleans' ultimate test ( as they go for the sweep of AFC opp ) will come marching in on November 30th . The titanic battle will pit the New Orleans Saints impersonating the team they will be facing : The New England Patriots .
For New England , this will mark the 3rd game vs the NFC as they will host Carolina 2 weeks later . No problem so far .
 
 
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During this decade of indulgence , the Patriots suffered their greatest bitter-sweet act when they sweept all 16 teams in the regular schedule during the 2007-2008 season only to fall to the NFC representative , the NY Giants .
During the regular season , New England continues to completely  dominate the NFC  and check out these outlandish numbers ! >>>
 
New England since the 2001-2002 season in which they won their first SB upsetting the ST Louis Rams are a meteoric 30-4 SU ( 88.2 % ) against the NFC .
 This naturally is during the regular season , where they are also
23-10-1 ATS in that span .
Even without Tom Brady last year , New England swept the NFC going 4-0 SU .
As a matter of fact , New England with these 2 SU wins already this season is riding an insane 17-0 SU winning streak , not having lost to an NFC team since 9/18/05 playing @ Carolina .
 
How remarkable do you think that NYG win was in the Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago ?
Pretty remarkable .
Ending a 16 game perfect season and with New England's current run vs the NFC , even more impressive .
 
On November 30th New Orleans will attempt to break the streak of 17 consecutive wins against NFC opponents , because if the Saints fail to do so , when a  hopeless Carolina Panthers team visits the Patriots on Dec 13th , New England will be riding a 19 game winning streak by game's end into next year ...
 
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New Orleans carries a nice 7-0 ATS record ( 6-1 SU ) into its matchup vs New England having covered all of their games vs the AFC last season losing only a close game to Denver as dogs .
 
Arizona and the NYG have also contributed to the NFC cause by going 4-1 ATS combined .
 Arizona ( 2-1 SU ) will play @ Tennessee 11/29, while the NYG
( 2-0 SU/ATS ) will host SD 11/8 , and then travel to Denver 11/26
 
This is what we have on tap for a quiet week 8 in interconference games :
 
San Francisco @ Indianapolis
Cleveland @ Chicago
 
Indianapolis is going for the sweep SU & ATS as they have already handled the other 3 NFC opponents on the schedule winning by a minimum of 17 points in these contests .
indi last swept the NFC in 2007-2008 winning and covering all 4 games .
 
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Meanwhile, SF has held its own vs the AFC showing no quit against Houston this year for a push ( or even a win for some ATS ) and managing a respectable 5-7 SU record vs the AFC in light of the fact that the 49ers only won 19 games out of the possible 48 played last 3 full seasons .
One such key game was a win on the last week of the regular season to knock out Denver from the playoffs in the 2006-2007 season ( SF was 10 point underdogs )
 More recently , SF beat Cincinnati in 2007 as 8.5 point dogs and last year in a season ending surge the 49ers shut down Buffalo 10-3 on the road as 6.5 point dogs , and then welcomed the NY Jets beating them 24-14 again as dogs .
SF would conclude a 3 consecutive game stretch vs AFC teams by nearly winning another one in Miami , ultimately losing 9-14 ..but covering the spread to make 3 consecutive covers vs the AFC.
 
 
The YTD numbers follow :
 
YTD : AFC leads 15-13-1 ATS
           AFC leads 16-13 SU
 
When NFC is favored :
            NFC leads 9-8 ATS
When AFC is favored :
            AFC leads 7-4-1 ATS
 
 
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Posted: #8
as usual
 
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Posted: #9

This is why ..these are notes ...
Correcting >>

...There were actually  8 interconference games in week 7
and I accounted for only 6 ...


New Orleans @ Miami  NFC won SU/ATS
Green Bay @ Cleveland  NFC won SU/ATS

So, actually , the AFC went 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS
AFC has now won 9 out of the last 12 interconference games ( 9-3 SU )
AFC is 8-3-1 ATS during the last 12 games played

The YTD numbers follow :
31 interconference games played

YTD : AFC is tied 15-15-1 ATS
           AFC leads 16-15 SU
 
When NFC is favored :
            NFC leads 11-8 ATS
When AFC is favored :
            AFC leads 7-4-1 ATS
 
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Upcoming interconference games :


Week 8, Sunday, November 01, 2009
SF @ Indianapolis
Cleveland @ Chicago

Week 9, Sunday, November 08, 2009
SD @ NYG
Tenn @ San Francisco

Week 10, Sunday, November 15, 2009
TB @ Miami
Denver @ Washington
Phil @ San Diego

 
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Favorites coming off a bye are now 42-16 ATS ( 72.4 % ) since the start of the 2006-2007 NFL season ( TY : 6-2 ATS :  2-1 , 2-1 , 2-0  )

Week 7 : teams off a bye results ( Favorites )
 
Atlanta @ Dallas - 4 ...WON
Indianapolis - 13.5  @ St Louis ...WON
New Orleans @ Miami + 6
San Francisco + 3 @ Houston
 
Upcoming games :
Highlighted teams are coming off a bye >>>
 
Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5
St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5
Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3
Seattle @ Dallas - 9.5
 
You can be certain all 3 of these teams will be trend picks ...
******************
Until 2 unders hit in a row on MNF , this trend will be featured :
 
MNF Over trend >>>
 
The Overs are now 19-4-1 ( 82.6 % ) since the start of the 2008-2009 season on Monday night football
( 7-1 Over YTD )
 
Next MNF game :
 
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Total 54/54.5
 
*************************
 
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Favorites vs Underdogs :
 
2009-2010
 
week 1 : Favs : 8-7-1
week 2 : Favs : 7-9-0
week 3 : Favs : 11-5-0
week 4 : Favs : 10-4-0
week 5 : Favs : 6-8-0
week 6 : Favs :  5-9-0
week 7 : Favs : 9-3-1
week 8 :  ???
YTD : Favs 56-45-1 ( 55.4 % )
 
Last year at this time :
Favorites vs Underdogs 2008-2009
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Last year through week 7 in the NFL Favs were 54-46-2 ( 54 % )
 
************
 
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Overs vs Unders
 
Week 1 : Overs : 8-8-0 
Week 2 : Overs : 9-7-0
Week 3 : Overs : 7-9-0
Week 4 : Overs : 8-5-1  
Week 5 : Overs : 7-7-0
Week 6 : Overs : 7-7-0
Week 7 : Overs : 7-5-1
 
YTD:
Overs lead 53-48-1 ( 52.5 % )
 
Last year at this time :
Overs vs Unders  2008-2009
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9 - 0
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8 - 0  ( one game postponed )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5 - 0
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs   8 - 6 - 0
Week 6 : Overs   4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs   7 - 6 - 1
Last year through week 7 in the NFL Overs were 54-45-3
( 54.5 % )
 
 ***************************
 
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Posted: #15
Keep up the excellent work Roberto.  
 
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Excellent work as always RF

I just had a question about the off the bye trend...

Do you have any history of when teams face eachother that are both coming off a bye, ie DEN/BAL & JAX/TEN...

Just curious. Thanks in advance
 
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Posted: #17

DiscoD69

Off the top of my head ..I remember Dallas vs Washington from last year as they were both coming off a bye and facing each other  ...Dallas was favored and covered .


Listen , we have a trend that is hitting at over 70 % consitently for the last 4 years and it is as simple as they get .


Play the team coming off a bye as long as they are favored ...


So, Baltimore and Tennesse would both be the plays .
There is no need to any further than that .

 

 
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Posted: #18
thanks RF!!
 
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RF, wouldn't Detroit fall under this trend too? Why aren't they a play?
 
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Hi RobertoFiory.  This week we have 6 teams that are comming back from a bye.  Can you find a stat about bye teams that play each other?  Your past write up about bye teams their was nothing mentioned about that.  Just some food for thought seeing how this will be happening as the season goes on.  Thank you for all the work that you do and if you are able to find some info out on this great, if not, no worries.  Thank you.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

DiscoD69

Off the top of my head ..I remember Dallas vs Washington from last year as they were both coming off a bye and facing each other  ...Dallas was favored and covered .


Listen , we have a trend that is hitting at over 70 % consitently for the last 4 years and it is as simple as they get .


Play the team coming off a bye as long as they are favored ...


So, Baltimore and Tennesse would both be the plays .
There is no need to any further than that .

 



Right, but I have a 6-1 trend from this year in the NFL, that's been narrowed down as part of a larger 19-7 trend (YTD) that is a play against TEN

But it goes against the favs off a bye trend that is also very strong

My tie breaker might just be the fact that JAX is 3-0 ATS vs. their division this year.

This other trend has just been too solid to ignore, the only loss was week 3 when NE fit as a play against when they really shouldn't have.

Appreciate your thoughts though RF
 
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Great information and trends brother.  Numbers can just be numbers at times but either way it's still good to know where things are at and where they've been. 

I put most of my bets in on Monday in anticipation of the line movement.  I really don't like most of the close spreads, especially on teams coming off the bye... so I'm definitely gonna note how it all plays out based on what you've included here. 

Thanks for posting!            
 
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BAL it the play.  Great.

 
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my mnf record.. 14-2.. next weeks Saints -10
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