This team just closed -7 against the Giants. Are we really saying the Giants are only a half point or 1 point better than Seattle? Come on. Seattle's offense is crap to begin with and run based. How are they going to score points against a run defense that will be out for blood? With no real time to prepare a game plan to find points I think Seattle's offense is in big trouble here especially after some good games where they may come in and not feel too bad if things get out of hand. Not sure how Seattle gets 10 points. SF doesn't have the best offense and the Hawks have a good defense as well but they won't need to put up 30 to cover this number, shit 13 points might be enough.
0
Early play for Thursday:
San Francisco -7 -115
This team just closed -7 against the Giants. Are we really saying the Giants are only a half point or 1 point better than Seattle? Come on. Seattle's offense is crap to begin with and run based. How are they going to score points against a run defense that will be out for blood? With no real time to prepare a game plan to find points I think Seattle's offense is in big trouble here especially after some good games where they may come in and not feel too bad if things get out of hand. Not sure how Seattle gets 10 points. SF doesn't have the best offense and the Hawks have a good defense as well but they won't need to put up 30 to cover this number, shit 13 points might be enough.
Even though you teased tha Hawks, that took some big balls to fade Brady today with Wilson at QB- I couldn't lock it in
Big congrats on the huge day, your right up on Green Bay write-up convinced me to lock in the play. It takes a veteran killer-instinct team to knock out Rodgers and what you wrote about Houston giving away some veteran leaders at the beginning of the year really showed today!
Drinks on you!
0
Even though you teased tha Hawks, that took some big balls to fade Brady today with Wilson at QB- I couldn't lock it in
Big congrats on the huge day, your right up on Green Bay write-up convinced me to lock in the play. It takes a veteran killer-instinct team to knock out Rodgers and what you wrote about Houston giving away some veteran leaders at the beginning of the year really showed today!
Seemed to have a feel for the league this week so I will play my MNF lean:
Denver +1
Probably going to be a popular play but I feel it is the right one. I don't really see a situational angle in this one that favors either team, I'm just betting on what I feel is the better squad. Statistically Denver is a strong team. They are ranked in the Top 10 in yards per play and yards per play against. The only other team that can say that is San Francisco. Their defense is pretty underrated as well ranking #7 in YPP with the only teams ranking ahead of them being SF, Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, and Arizona....the best defenses in the league. All this has come against a very tough schedule as well including 4 of 5 games against likely playoff teams. The Broncos problem this year has been turnovers where they are already -6 through just 5 games. However a lot of that has been because of fumbles and we all know fumbles are highly variable. Only two teams have lost more fumbles than the 7 Denver has lost this season and they have emphasized ball security throughout the week. Manning really embarrassed himself last time on MNF with those INT's and wobbly duck passes. I expect him to be much better this time around especially when his team is in desperate need of a win.
The Chargers to me are just an average football team. They are middle of the pack in YPP on both sides of the ball and defensively they don't have any real impact players that will be needed to slow down this Broncos group. San Diego also has the 2nd worst red zone defense in the NFL allowing over 71% TD's, which is not good considering Denver's O is 2nd best in the league in the redzone. Apart from the Falcons who spanked the piss out of them San Diego has played teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, 1-5, and 1-4.....in other words a pile of shit.
Not sure if anyone reads Football Outsiders but they have this Broncos team as one of the best 2-3 teams of the last 20+ years. The other teams on that list finished the year going 7-4, 8-3, 7-3-1, 7-4, 7-4, 6-5, 9-2, and 8-3 winning a combined 68% of their games. This year's Packers were also on that list and we saw how good they are against Houston. Watching the games yesterday it became clear to me that poorly-coached teams like Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Dallas are not playable in close games (lines under a TD) because they will continually shoot themselves in the foot and find ways to lose games. The Chargers and old man Norv are in the exact same boat. If this game is close late you can bet your ass the Chargers will find a way to fuck it up.
GL.
0
Seemed to have a feel for the league this week so I will play my MNF lean:
Denver +1
Probably going to be a popular play but I feel it is the right one. I don't really see a situational angle in this one that favors either team, I'm just betting on what I feel is the better squad. Statistically Denver is a strong team. They are ranked in the Top 10 in yards per play and yards per play against. The only other team that can say that is San Francisco. Their defense is pretty underrated as well ranking #7 in YPP with the only teams ranking ahead of them being SF, Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, Houston, and Arizona....the best defenses in the league. All this has come against a very tough schedule as well including 4 of 5 games against likely playoff teams. The Broncos problem this year has been turnovers where they are already -6 through just 5 games. However a lot of that has been because of fumbles and we all know fumbles are highly variable. Only two teams have lost more fumbles than the 7 Denver has lost this season and they have emphasized ball security throughout the week. Manning really embarrassed himself last time on MNF with those INT's and wobbly duck passes. I expect him to be much better this time around especially when his team is in desperate need of a win.
The Chargers to me are just an average football team. They are middle of the pack in YPP on both sides of the ball and defensively they don't have any real impact players that will be needed to slow down this Broncos group. San Diego also has the 2nd worst red zone defense in the NFL allowing over 71% TD's, which is not good considering Denver's O is 2nd best in the league in the redzone. Apart from the Falcons who spanked the piss out of them San Diego has played teams with records of 1-4, 2-4, 1-5, and 1-4.....in other words a pile of shit.
Not sure if anyone reads Football Outsiders but they have this Broncos team as one of the best 2-3 teams of the last 20+ years. The other teams on that list finished the year going 7-4, 8-3, 7-3-1, 7-4, 7-4, 6-5, 9-2, and 8-3 winning a combined 68% of their games. This year's Packers were also on that list and we saw how good they are against Houston. Watching the games yesterday it became clear to me that poorly-coached teams like Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Dallas are not playable in close games (lines under a TD) because they will continually shoot themselves in the foot and find ways to lose games. The Chargers and old man Norv are in the exact same boat. If this game is close late you can bet your ass the Chargers will find a way to fuck it up.
Even though you teased tha Hawks, that took some big balls to fade Brady today with Wilson at QB- I couldn't lock it in
Big congrats on the huge day, your right up on Green Bay write-up convinced me to lock in the play. It takes a veteran killer-instinct team to knock out Rodgers and what you wrote about Houston giving away some veteran leaders at the beginning of the year really showed today!
Drinks on you!
I forgot about that Houston leadership bit. Beating crap teams and leading from start to finish in Denver didn't really provide any adverse situations for that to show up but this game certainly did. Add Cushing to the list of vets this team may miss when the going gets tough.
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Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
Even though you teased tha Hawks, that took some big balls to fade Brady today with Wilson at QB- I couldn't lock it in
Big congrats on the huge day, your right up on Green Bay write-up convinced me to lock in the play. It takes a veteran killer-instinct team to knock out Rodgers and what you wrote about Houston giving away some veteran leaders at the beginning of the year really showed today!
Drinks on you!
I forgot about that Houston leadership bit. Beating crap teams and leading from start to finish in Denver didn't really provide any adverse situations for that to show up but this game certainly did. Add Cushing to the list of vets this team may miss when the going gets tough.
Sort of doubled-down on the Broncos tonight. I don't play too many futures but I think this is a good situation to buy low on Denver to get some fat numbers to play around with later in the season.
I looked at Denver's remaining schedule and it's a joke. They will be favored in every game except Week 15 @ Baltimore although who knows what will be left of the Ravens by that time. The AFC as whole is very weak. New England and possibly Houston are the only real legit teams IMO although Houston has shown they aren't built to come from behind. Baltimore is not going to survive losing two players like Lewis and Webb on a defense that wasn't good to begin with. I already mentioned I think Denver is better than San Diego and IMO the Chargers are a .500 team. If the Broncos win tonight that is a huge boost to winning the division and getting at least one home playoff game. This year's potential wildcard teams in the AFC are probably two of Pittsburgh, Miami, Cincinnati, and San Diego. I like my chances with the Broncos at home in a playoff game against those teams. From there anything can happen.
Obviously a lot hinges on them winning tonight and staying relatively healthy but I like this group. I'm not necessarily making these bets to win them I just think come playoff time the numbers won't be near this good. I threw half a unit a piece on Denver to win AFC +900 and Denver to win Super Bowl +2500.
0
Sort of doubled-down on the Broncos tonight. I don't play too many futures but I think this is a good situation to buy low on Denver to get some fat numbers to play around with later in the season.
I looked at Denver's remaining schedule and it's a joke. They will be favored in every game except Week 15 @ Baltimore although who knows what will be left of the Ravens by that time. The AFC as whole is very weak. New England and possibly Houston are the only real legit teams IMO although Houston has shown they aren't built to come from behind. Baltimore is not going to survive losing two players like Lewis and Webb on a defense that wasn't good to begin with. I already mentioned I think Denver is better than San Diego and IMO the Chargers are a .500 team. If the Broncos win tonight that is a huge boost to winning the division and getting at least one home playoff game. This year's potential wildcard teams in the AFC are probably two of Pittsburgh, Miami, Cincinnati, and San Diego. I like my chances with the Broncos at home in a playoff game against those teams. From there anything can happen.
Obviously a lot hinges on them winning tonight and staying relatively healthy but I like this group. I'm not necessarily making these bets to win them I just think come playoff time the numbers won't be near this good. I threw half a unit a piece on Denver to win AFC +900 and Denver to win Super Bowl +2500.
Gotta love the young Seahawks suddenly getting quite cocky and giving it to Brady and the Pats. Here they are just 72 hours from walking into a hornets nest and they are still talking about New England. These youngsters look to be very overconfident and full of themselves at the moment. San Fran is going to give them a big wake up call when they flatten them on Thursday.
0
Gotta love the young Seahawks suddenly getting quite cocky and giving it to Brady and the Pats. Here they are just 72 hours from walking into a hornets nest and they are still talking about New England. These youngsters look to be very overconfident and full of themselves at the moment. San Fran is going to give them a big wake up call when they flatten them on Thursday.
Gotta love the young Seahawks suddenly getting quite cocky and giving it to Brady and the Pats. Here they are just 72 hours from walking into a hornets nest and they are still talking about New England. These youngsters look to be very overconfident and full of themselves at the moment. San Fran is going to give them a big wake up call when they flatten them on Thursday.
Russell Wilson will meet meet Patrick Willis and Dashon Goldson should he scramble out of the pocket. If they think losing at STL was bad, wait until Thursday night.
Love your take on DEN as well. SD can stay in this game and keep Manning off the field provided they run heavy with the ball and that has been Denver's achilles heel. That is my primary concern.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Gotta love the young Seahawks suddenly getting quite cocky and giving it to Brady and the Pats. Here they are just 72 hours from walking into a hornets nest and they are still talking about New England. These youngsters look to be very overconfident and full of themselves at the moment. San Fran is going to give them a big wake up call when they flatten them on Thursday.
Russell Wilson will meet meet Patrick Willis and Dashon Goldson should he scramble out of the pocket. If they think losing at STL was bad, wait until Thursday night.
Love your take on DEN as well. SD can stay in this game and keep Manning off the field provided they run heavy with the ball and that has been Denver's achilles heel. That is my primary concern.
Forget about what I said about the Chargers finding a way to fuck it up if this game was close late. Just give em a 24-0 halftime lead at home and they'll find a way to fuck it up.
0
Norv
Rivers
Chargers
Manning on MNF
Forget about what I said about the Chargers finding a way to fuck it up if this game was close late. Just give em a 24-0 halftime lead at home and they'll find a way to fuck it up.
Sort of doubled-down on the Broncos tonight. I don't play too many futures but I think this is a good situation to buy low on Denver to get some fat numbers to play around with later in the season.
I looked at Denver's remaining schedule and it's a joke. They will be favored in every game except Week 15 @ Baltimore although who knows what will be left of the Ravens by that time. The AFC as whole is very weak. New England and possibly Houston are the only real legit teams IMO although Houston has shown they aren't built to come from behind. Baltimore is not going to survive losing two players like Lewis and Webb on a defense that wasn't good to begin with. I already mentioned I think Denver is better than San Diego and IMO the Chargers are a .500 team. If the Broncos win tonight that is a huge boost to winning the division and getting at least one home playoff game. This year's potential wildcard teams in the AFC are probably two of Pittsburgh, Miami, Cincinnati, and San Diego. I like my chances with the Broncos at home in a playoff game against those teams. From there anything can happen.
Obviously a lot hinges on them winning tonight and staying relatively healthy but I like this group. I'm not necessarily making these bets to win them I just think come playoff time the numbers won't be near this good. I threw half a unit a piece on Denver to win AFC +900 and Denver to win Super Bowl +2500.
Now at +500 and +1000. Good read!
0
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Sort of doubled-down on the Broncos tonight. I don't play too many futures but I think this is a good situation to buy low on Denver to get some fat numbers to play around with later in the season.
I looked at Denver's remaining schedule and it's a joke. They will be favored in every game except Week 15 @ Baltimore although who knows what will be left of the Ravens by that time. The AFC as whole is very weak. New England and possibly Houston are the only real legit teams IMO although Houston has shown they aren't built to come from behind. Baltimore is not going to survive losing two players like Lewis and Webb on a defense that wasn't good to begin with. I already mentioned I think Denver is better than San Diego and IMO the Chargers are a .500 team. If the Broncos win tonight that is a huge boost to winning the division and getting at least one home playoff game. This year's potential wildcard teams in the AFC are probably two of Pittsburgh, Miami, Cincinnati, and San Diego. I like my chances with the Broncos at home in a playoff game against those teams. From there anything can happen.
Obviously a lot hinges on them winning tonight and staying relatively healthy but I like this group. I'm not necessarily making these bets to win them I just think come playoff time the numbers won't be near this good. I threw half a unit a piece on Denver to win AFC +900 and Denver to win Super Bowl +2500.
Top 10 in yardage efficiency in Passing Offense, Passing Defense, Rushing Defense, Total Offense, and Total Defense. Top 5 QB with playmakers on both sides of the ball. All that against the toughest part of their schedule as they play the easiest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way and also play in a joke of a division. Those bets are going to run far.
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Quote Originally Posted by avenue:
Now at +500 and +1000. Good read!
Top 10 in yardage efficiency in Passing Offense, Passing Defense, Rushing Defense, Total Offense, and Total Defense. Top 5 QB with playmakers on both sides of the ball. All that against the toughest part of their schedule as they play the easiest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way and also play in a joke of a division. Those bets are going to run far.
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Norv
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