like some of your picks, but i have an advise for you: stay away of your Raiders pick, trust me, I am a Raider fan and I know my team, and they are done, no scheme, no coach (Cable as coach and offense play caller, really??) , no Qb, only some decent defensive effort, in the ohter hand you have Manning, Coughlin and a good defense, the only way i see the Raiders cover it's a sloppy game from Giants offense, like a Manning interception return for a TD, or a fumble return for a TD, a special team TD, but even that i dont see it ... even the garbage TD is almost impossible the way Oakland is playing offense, didn't you see the Oak/Hou game??? this offense is compared to that of Art Shell's bread and breakfast offense of 2006 Raiders ... so think about it my friend, I already have NYGiants -17...
GL
Thanks for the advice, it was just a lean but I hear what you're saying, this Raiders team is in shambles. I will probably lay off this game anyway. Good luck with your plays!
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Quote Originally Posted by alecboyh:
like some of your picks, but i have an advise for you: stay away of your Raiders pick, trust me, I am a Raider fan and I know my team, and they are done, no scheme, no coach (Cable as coach and offense play caller, really??) , no Qb, only some decent defensive effort, in the ohter hand you have Manning, Coughlin and a good defense, the only way i see the Raiders cover it's a sloppy game from Giants offense, like a Manning interception return for a TD, or a fumble return for a TD, a special team TD, but even that i dont see it ... even the garbage TD is almost impossible the way Oakland is playing offense, didn't you see the Oak/Hou game??? this offense is compared to that of Art Shell's bread and breakfast offense of 2006 Raiders ... so think about it my friend, I already have NYGiants -17...
GL
Thanks for the advice, it was just a lean but I hear what you're saying, this Raiders team is in shambles. I will probably lay off this game anyway. Good luck with your plays!
Without Polamalu they are a whole different team with him there defense is just fine. Ravens aren't looking ahead by the way, don't know what you don't get about that. Its whatever...Good luck buddy.
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Without Polamalu they are a whole different team with him there defense is just fine. Ravens aren't looking ahead by the way, don't know what you don't get about that. Its whatever...Good luck buddy.
(Eagles -15), The Eagles dominate Tampa in the statistical category. The Eagles are averaging 31.3 ppg on offense & Tampa 13.5. Eagle's defense is allowing 24 ppg & Tampa 26.8. Neither defense is impressive early in the season. The Eagles beat Carolina (0-3), Chiefs (0-4) & lost to the Saints (4-0). Tampa hasnt beaten anyone, they are (0-4), they lost to Dallas (2-2), Buffalo (1-3), Giants (4-0) & Skins (2-2). Tampa is 0-3 vs the NFC East & this game will make it 0-4. Andy Reid will have the Eagles ready off the bye, his team will be well rested & ready to play. Eagles key player inuries: Kevin Curtis fully practiced Wed but is not 100% back. Brian Westbrook is probable & is expected to start Sunday. McNabb is probable but is expected to start also.
Tampa key injuries: Antonio Bryant is probable but seen limited action in practice. Leftwich is questionable but returned to practice Wed, he has a hip problem. Imo, the Eagles offense will have too much speed for Tampa's defense & it will get ugly quick. McNabb will use Westbrook & open up the passing game. McNabb gets 4 td passes this game. Here are some trends:
Eagles are 11-0 SU coming off a bye last 11 times
Eagles are 9-2 ATS coming off a bye last 11 times
Eagles are 9-0 ATS in October vs <.500 opponent off a road game
Tampa is 3-0 ATS last 3 times they played the Eagles
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Adding lean:
(Eagles -15), The Eagles dominate Tampa in the statistical category. The Eagles are averaging 31.3 ppg on offense & Tampa 13.5. Eagle's defense is allowing 24 ppg & Tampa 26.8. Neither defense is impressive early in the season. The Eagles beat Carolina (0-3), Chiefs (0-4) & lost to the Saints (4-0). Tampa hasnt beaten anyone, they are (0-4), they lost to Dallas (2-2), Buffalo (1-3), Giants (4-0) & Skins (2-2). Tampa is 0-3 vs the NFC East & this game will make it 0-4. Andy Reid will have the Eagles ready off the bye, his team will be well rested & ready to play. Eagles key player inuries: Kevin Curtis fully practiced Wed but is not 100% back. Brian Westbrook is probable & is expected to start Sunday. McNabb is probable but is expected to start also.
Tampa key injuries: Antonio Bryant is probable but seen limited action in practice. Leftwich is questionable but returned to practice Wed, he has a hip problem. Imo, the Eagles offense will have too much speed for Tampa's defense & it will get ugly quick. McNabb will use Westbrook & open up the passing game. McNabb gets 4 td passes this game. Here are some trends:
Eagles are 11-0 SU coming off a bye last 11 times
Eagles are 9-2 ATS coming off a bye last 11 times
Eagles are 9-0 ATS in October vs <.500 opponent off a road game
Tampa is 3-0 ATS last 3 times they played the Eagles
I will have 2 big plays coming up. I have a lean on the Colts & Jets but I dont feel comfortable with these leans, so I will wait closer to game time for the Sunday & Monday night.
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Official Plays:
BENGALS +8.5 (-110) $550 to win $500
CHIEFS +8 (-110) $550 to win $500
I will have 2 big plays coming up. I have a lean on the Colts & Jets but I dont feel comfortable with these leans, so I will wait closer to game time for the Sunday & Monday night.
Good stuff PRIME! More than likely hitting the TITANS hard Sunday night with a ML play involved. Would have to lean MIA for Monday night. Either way good luck buddy!
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Good stuff PRIME! More than likely hitting the TITANS hard Sunday night with a ML play involved. Would have to lean MIA for Monday night. Either way good luck buddy!
We’ve now posted our week five picks ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_five_picks.html ) which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders.There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_five_nfl_analysis.html ) but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.
Our Free NFL picks ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009 ) require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During Week Four ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_four_picks.html ) we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date).We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines.We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success.You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice.Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit us at ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009 )
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We’ve now posted our week five picks ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_five_picks.html ) which include three (3) bet worthy Week 3 NFL lines and two (2) bet worthy over unders.There are three strong best bets (Minnesota -9.5, Houston +5.5, Under 40.5 in the Buf vs Cle) which has resulted in a less smooth than normal distribution ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_five_nfl_analysis.html ) but a good predicted ROI of 113.7%.
Our Free NFL picks ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009 ) require no registration or membership, are not accompanied by annoying popup windows, and are concisely located on a single page for each NFL week.
During Week Four ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/week_four_picks.html ) we were 55% on bet units (56% season to date).We are 9/13 (69%) on best bets for the season.
Our picks are based on a statistical model that generates predictes outcomes using multiple systems and compares them to multiple casino lines.We use the delta (large is good) between the model spread and the casino spreads along with the population standard deviations (small is good) to arrive at confidence factors.
We also compute the Cumulative Distribution Function (Z-statistic) for each pick to predict a likelihood of success.You need 52.4% to overcome 10% juice and 51.2% to overcome 5% juice.Our bet units are based on both the Z-statistic and the confidence.
For more details, be sure to visit us at ( https://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009 )
Giants laying too many can't lay this much in an NFL game ever no matter who's playing. A couple things to consider though for a Giants backer in this one is that they will not lose much if carr was to start. This is his coming out party and time to showcase himself to get another opportunity at a starting job next year. Gmen will keep it close to the vest this week but Carr will have his opportunities to show he's a good starting qb in this league when you give him an offensive line and a running back behind him
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Giants laying too many can't lay this much in an NFL game ever no matter who's playing. A couple things to consider though for a Giants backer in this one is that they will not lose much if carr was to start. This is his coming out party and time to showcase himself to get another opportunity at a starting job next year. Gmen will keep it close to the vest this week but Carr will have his opportunities to show he's a good starting qb in this league when you give him an offensive line and a running back behind him
How come no one has yet to mention the Vikings -10 this week? St. Louis has been blown out in every game this year except for the offensively challenged Redskins. The Vikings have a top 3 D-line in football and that number 28 guy, and also Favre is making these Vikings receivers legitimate threats.
The Vikings blow out the Rams this week.
I also like the Colts and the Eagles, along with a small Atlanta ML play.
Good luck to everyone this week.
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How come no one has yet to mention the Vikings -10 this week? St. Louis has been blown out in every game this year except for the offensively challenged Redskins. The Vikings have a top 3 D-line in football and that number 28 guy, and also Favre is making these Vikings receivers legitimate threats.
The Vikings blow out the Rams this week.
I also like the Colts and the Eagles, along with a small Atlanta ML play.
PTB. what's up bro. I like the Chiefs for sure, I'll be placing 1/2 unit on the ML as well.
Am I hallucinating or didn't the Titans get beat by the Ravens in the playoffs last year and the Chargers beat the Colts? Umm...I don't really understand what you are referring to in your Colts/Titans writeup.
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PTB. what's up bro. I like the Chiefs for sure, I'll be placing 1/2 unit on the ML as well.
Am I hallucinating or didn't the Titans get beat by the Ravens in the playoffs last year and the Chargers beat the Colts? Umm...I don't really understand what you are referring to in your Colts/Titans writeup.
Good luck bro. I actually really like the Panthers in this spot even though they aren't a good team. I have faith in Fox to put some perfume on this turdwich for one Sunday. I think the Panthers roll..
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Good luck bro. I actually really like the Panthers in this spot even though they aren't a good team. I have faith in Fox to put some perfume on this turdwich for one Sunday. I think the Panthers roll..
I had the worst day in college ball & I wont be making any big plays anytime soon. The only plays I like this week in the NFL are the Chiefs & Bengals, the other games are just leans. Good luck everyone!
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I had the worst day in college ball & I wont be making any big plays anytime soon. The only plays I like this week in the NFL are the Chiefs & Bengals, the other games are just leans. Good luck everyone!
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