Posted:
#1
YTD: 35-25 ATS
Miami +7.5
Always tough trying to bet against the Pats especially when they appear to be rolling but I'll step in and hit what I feel is an inflated number. Miami may not have a great HFA but I just don't see NE laying 13.5 to this team if the game was in Foxboro. Another thing to consider is NE was -7 on the road last week to the Jets and even before last week's debacle I'd imagine most had the Fish better than the Jets. Think we're looking at some inflation here.
As far as on the field goes in this one I don't like the spot for NE. This is a tough game to get up for after completely belting teams in all three facets of the game in recent weeks. Now with some time off I think it works against them and breaks up some momentum. That leaves them trying to get it going for most of the game against a team they know they can spank and with two massive lookahead games on deck against HOU and SF I think there's a good chance the Pats look a little flat.
Miami is a very tough out as well. They have a tough defense and improving offense and QB. Miami has the ingredients to play close games and they've only lost two games all season by more than 5 points, Tannehill's first game @ HOU and then one turnover-filled debacle against TEN. New England may have had the better looking wins lately but I really believe Miami winning last week was very, very impactful. Coming into last week they were struggling mightily but they played very well against a good team that was rested. They battled back to tie in the 4th Q and then after giving up a KO TD they battled back and tied the game again only to put together another drive for the win. Huge confidence boost for a young team to battle back and win a game like that after their failures in recent weeks. I think that win is something they can really build off this week.
St. Louis +7
Similar reasoning to the Miami pick for this one. We've got a hot team that may have trouble stringing together another A level game for the 3rd week in a row against a division home dog that is tough to knock off and should have some confidence after winning last week.
SF got up to hammer the Bears two weeks ago on MNF. They followed that up by making a statement against a Saints team that had been scorching hot last week. The Rams don't offer the same type of quality SF has seen the last two weeks and as a result I don't think they play at the same level. It's hard enough playing at an A level for three straight weeks at this time of the year as it is but going from hot Bears and Saints teams to the 4-6-1 Rams is quite a dropoff.
The Niners have been streaky this year in putting together two really good games and following them up with a dud, something they've already done three times this season.
Much like Miami the Rams have the pieces to be a tough out. They have a good defense, improving offense and they play hard almost every week. This team is 7-3 ATS as dogs this year and two of the three losses came when Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady went off, hey it happens. I actually think the Rams will be more pissed about the earlier tie between these teams, they know they were the better team that day and let one slip away. Should be a close low-scoring divisional game.
Minnesota/Green Bay OVER 46.5
I'm looking for a big bounce back from the Packers offense. It's not often a team with this good of an offense is going to be held to only 10 points. The situation is much better for the offensive line in this one and getting Jennings back adds another playmaker. Minnesota being a division rival and one game back of the Packers also tells me they will likely be taking this one very seriously. It's not often this team is held in check offensively and when they are they usually come back the next week firing. Since the start of Aaron Rodgers' 2nd season as a starter Green Bay has scored 28, 35, 28, 20, 28, 45, 34, and 30 points in games after scoring less than 21 points. It should also be noted the game they were held to 20 was the week right after Rodgers sustained a concussion.
I also think Minnesota will put up some points. They are off a terrible offensive game themselves although that was against a Bears defense that needed a good game and does well against O's like Minny's. Before last week Minnesota had scored at least 20 points in all but one game. The Packers defense still banged up bad and have major issues. Woodson and Shields are out again, Matthews is likely out as well and there are still a lot of young players on this unit. Over the last 8 weeks Green Bay has given up at least 20 points in every game except against the Cardinals and Jaguars who currently sport the two worst ranked offenses in the NFL.
The early weather looks great for Green Bay at this time of the year at Partly Cloudy and very mild with temps in the 50's.
Looking at a few more. GL gents.
Miami +7.5
Always tough trying to bet against the Pats especially when they appear to be rolling but I'll step in and hit what I feel is an inflated number. Miami may not have a great HFA but I just don't see NE laying 13.5 to this team if the game was in Foxboro. Another thing to consider is NE was -7 on the road last week to the Jets and even before last week's debacle I'd imagine most had the Fish better than the Jets. Think we're looking at some inflation here.
As far as on the field goes in this one I don't like the spot for NE. This is a tough game to get up for after completely belting teams in all three facets of the game in recent weeks. Now with some time off I think it works against them and breaks up some momentum. That leaves them trying to get it going for most of the game against a team they know they can spank and with two massive lookahead games on deck against HOU and SF I think there's a good chance the Pats look a little flat.
Miami is a very tough out as well. They have a tough defense and improving offense and QB. Miami has the ingredients to play close games and they've only lost two games all season by more than 5 points, Tannehill's first game @ HOU and then one turnover-filled debacle against TEN. New England may have had the better looking wins lately but I really believe Miami winning last week was very, very impactful. Coming into last week they were struggling mightily but they played very well against a good team that was rested. They battled back to tie in the 4th Q and then after giving up a KO TD they battled back and tied the game again only to put together another drive for the win. Huge confidence boost for a young team to battle back and win a game like that after their failures in recent weeks. I think that win is something they can really build off this week.
St. Louis +7
Similar reasoning to the Miami pick for this one. We've got a hot team that may have trouble stringing together another A level game for the 3rd week in a row against a division home dog that is tough to knock off and should have some confidence after winning last week.
SF got up to hammer the Bears two weeks ago on MNF. They followed that up by making a statement against a Saints team that had been scorching hot last week. The Rams don't offer the same type of quality SF has seen the last two weeks and as a result I don't think they play at the same level. It's hard enough playing at an A level for three straight weeks at this time of the year as it is but going from hot Bears and Saints teams to the 4-6-1 Rams is quite a dropoff.
The Niners have been streaky this year in putting together two really good games and following them up with a dud, something they've already done three times this season.
Much like Miami the Rams have the pieces to be a tough out. They have a good defense, improving offense and they play hard almost every week. This team is 7-3 ATS as dogs this year and two of the three losses came when Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady went off, hey it happens. I actually think the Rams will be more pissed about the earlier tie between these teams, they know they were the better team that day and let one slip away. Should be a close low-scoring divisional game.
Minnesota/Green Bay OVER 46.5
I'm looking for a big bounce back from the Packers offense. It's not often a team with this good of an offense is going to be held to only 10 points. The situation is much better for the offensive line in this one and getting Jennings back adds another playmaker. Minnesota being a division rival and one game back of the Packers also tells me they will likely be taking this one very seriously. It's not often this team is held in check offensively and when they are they usually come back the next week firing. Since the start of Aaron Rodgers' 2nd season as a starter Green Bay has scored 28, 35, 28, 20, 28, 45, 34, and 30 points in games after scoring less than 21 points. It should also be noted the game they were held to 20 was the week right after Rodgers sustained a concussion.
I also think Minnesota will put up some points. They are off a terrible offensive game themselves although that was against a Bears defense that needed a good game and does well against O's like Minny's. Before last week Minnesota had scored at least 20 points in all but one game. The Packers defense still banged up bad and have major issues. Woodson and Shields are out again, Matthews is likely out as well and there are still a lot of young players on this unit. Over the last 8 weeks Green Bay has given up at least 20 points in every game except against the Cardinals and Jaguars who currently sport the two worst ranked offenses in the NFL.
The early weather looks great for Green Bay at this time of the year at Partly Cloudy and very mild with temps in the 50's.
Looking at a few more. GL gents.
0
Hot Forum Topics
