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NFL Week 12

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Posted: #76
A 15 yard punt. In my favor!
 
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Posted: #77
It's time for me to go to the in-game thread to comment..........er...........vent.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

It's time for me to go to the in-game thread to comment..........er...........vent.







I feel ya man. I haven't had a winning week in over a month. Nothing but favorites and the overs. I fuckin hate squares.

 
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Posted: #79
Lube up under backers....
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:







I feel ya man. I haven't had a winning week in over a month. Nothing but favorites and the overs. I fuckin hate squares.



I wouldn't dream of playing an Under right now.

See ya on the weekend gents for more of the bullshit we all know and love.
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by Uneek:

flutie....don't worry.....guaratee cincy covers...

remember where ya heard it

Thank you for your "guaratee"  Jets 26 Bengals 10

Use the words "lock" and "guarantee" carefully....

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Looks solid, Remy.  You know I'm not a fan of any kind of exotic wagers, but stick with what works for you.  Besides that, I like the teams you have plugged into your teasers.

Hit on one Teaser although it took a safety to get that over.  Thought the Jets played pretty well.  Very old school, ball control type of game.  Wish they would let Sanchez throw more.  Think the kid has what it takes to be an star if they just let him wing it.  Defense looked solid though.  Should be interesting to see what the line is for Jets/NE week 13.

As I was writing the post on Saints -4 the line floated to -4.5 and for some reason I got so mad at that that I went to buy the hook and just said fcuk it and bought a point and half to Saints -3 for push.  Probably a good sign that my luck might finally be turning around.  Now I just need to resist the urgent to waste units on college games I know nothing about just so I can have some at work action tomorrow.

Lets put our heads together and find some winners Sunday.   

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by REMYREVERE:

Hit on one Teaser although it took a safety to get that over.  Thought the Jets played pretty well.  Very old school, ball control type of game.  Wish they would let Sanchez throw more.  Think the kid has what it takes to be an star if they just let him wing it.  Defense looked solid though.  Should be interesting to see what the line is for Jets/NE week 13.

As I was writing the post on Saints -4 the line floated to -4.5 and for some reason I got so mad at that that I went to buy the hook and just said fcuk it and bought a point and half to Saints -3 for push.  Probably a good sign that my luck might finally be turning around.  Now I just need to resist the urgent to waste units on college games I know nothing about just so I can have some at work action tomorrow.

Lets put our heads together and find some winners Sunday.   




 
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Posted: #84
Tennessee +7 (hook)

One of the reasons why Jeff Fisher has lasted so long as the coach of the Titans is because of his unique ability to get the most out of his players. The Titans have not had the biggest stars in Fishers' era but year after year they seem to be competitive. He recognizes his strengths and weaknesses and often caters his game plan to get the most out of his guys, he's a classic "overacheiver". Overachievers tend to do well as underdogs and that is exactly what has happened with the Titans as they are 67-41 ATS as regular season underdogs under Fisher. That is a solid 62% trend over a 100+ game sample.

The Titans are down to their 3rd string QB this week who will be making his first career start so you know Fisher will have to be at his best to get everyone else to step up their game big time to compensate for the inexperience at QB. I have a feeling that he will have everyone ready to go especially after losing 3 straight games and as the Titans still have a shot if they can survive this one until Collins comes back next week. I also think the players will be extra motivated by seeing their offensive coordinator on the sidelines. This guy was diagnosed with cancer this week and instead of going in for treatment, he has delayed his treatment to be at and coach in this game. That's a huge decision and I think the Titans are going to appreciate it and play extra hard to get him a win. How bad would it be if this guy postponed his treatment and the Titans went out and lost the game? I remember last year in Cincy when the well liked D-coordinator lost his wife. The next week everyone stepped up and they won outright as 9 point dogs. I see something similar this week as far as the intensity the Titans play with.

Houston is a mess. They are in need of a W but at 4-6, last in the division, and with 5 of their last 6 against teams at .500 or better it may be too late. How can anyone in that organization have any confidence knowing their defense is so bad? No matter what the offense does it seems it can all be pissed away in a second. The look on the faces of guys like Schaub and Johnson was of sheer disgust last week after the Jets marched down the field for the go ahead TD in about 3 plays and 20 seconds.
 
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Posted: #85
Minnesota +1

I know most are using the same reasoning for betting the Vikes but I just have a feeling these guys show up this week. It wasn't just Favre that hated Childress it was basically the whole locker room as it seemed like every week there were reports of fighing and discontent. Now with Chilly gone there may be a new energy in that room despite the disappointing year. I talked about the dead cat bounce a few weeks ago when I bet the Cowboys against the Giants, I think we see that again here. The Vikings have pretty much hit rock bottom and there is nowhere to go but up even if it is just for one week after a year from hell and back to back blowouts to division rivals. I have a feeling Frazier pounds the ball with Peterson against a soft Washington D.

I'm not sold on the Skins either. This is a bad football team and even if Minnesota is a little motivated they are better than Washington. As bad as Brett Favre has been this year, McNabb has not been much better as his QB rating his just 7 points higher than Favre and he actually has a lower completion %.

Give me the Vikes to show up loose and motivated this week, even if it is just for one week.

GL.
 
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Posted: #86

I had a nice writeup for the GB/ATL game, but as I was wrapping it up my computer decided to person out on me and close Internet Explorer.  I'm not going to even begin to put together what I had written because it was full of numbers, stats, etc. that I honestly don't feel like digging up again.  I'll keep it simple (which I should have done to begin with) and just comment on a few dynamics that stuck out to me about this game.  Biggest X factor to me is the passing game in relation to Atlanta.  Atlanta is ranked 24th in pass defense in the league.  Going against a pass happy, productive GB offense smells like trouble to me.  I expect Jennings and Driver to be all over the field.  I also expect Rodgers to have some tricks up his sleeve.  ATL will be expecting GB to pass (or at least they should be) for 3 reasons.  1)  GB's bread and butter is the pass.  2)  GB's running game is almost nonexistent this season since Grant's injury.  3)  ATL defends the run well.  The defense is giving up 94 yards on average a game.  GB will be ready for this.  I'd look for some strange routes to be ran and lots of hot reads by Rodgers.  Offensively, I see Matt Ryan having some problems.  GB's secondary aren't slouches.  Imo Charles Woodson is the best corner in the league.  I know there's all this Revis hype, but Woodson produces year after year.  GB is ranked 12th in the league against the pass, but I think that ranking is a little skewed by their defensive slow start.  I can't remember exact numbers (like I said, I'm not digging all this shit up again thanks to Microsoft), but the GB defense has been monstrous in their last 3 games.  They seem to finally be clicking well and playing the way everyone expected them to.  Atlanta will probably try to double Matthews and give him hell all day which will create holes and opportunity for the GB D line.  If GB can dominate the ATL run game and force Ryan to throw the ball more, we should see some turnovers.

Not the writeup I wanted to give, but like I said, I'm lazy and don't have the time to cap this game all over again.  Loving GB though.  They have the momentum.  Love Glyde's comments too about the excessive celebration after Atlanta's last game.  Pack attack will put an end to that nonsense. 

Been killing it the past 2 weeks.  Hopefully I don't take some bad beats which tends to be the trend when I get going 

GB +2

TB+ 7.5

PHILLY -3.5 (my book won't let me buy the hook which I'm sure will be my demise on Sunday)

BOL to all   

 
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Posted: #87
Something is telling me that the Steelers are going to have a big game, but I can't pull the trigger on that one.  Mac, your decision on Minny is my lean, but I just don't see much value in those teams.  Washington is still playing terrible and the Vikings.....well I think Brett should have sat this season out and continued to text message pictures of his penis.  Panthers line seems pretty high to me also, but I can't bet on Carolina.  GL though man.  I'm rooting for you!
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Tampa Bay +9

When I first looked at this game I said to myself this is the week the overachieving Bucs get crushed. But my opinion quickly shifted as I pondered the question, are the Bucs really overachieving? And will they actually be scared enough of the big bad Ravens to unravel?

Bettors seem to be willing to support the Bucs this week but I don't think they are truly getting the respect that they deserve in the sporting world. If you look at all the power rankings and stuff people are saying in mainstream publications you will see they all have Tampa ranked around 10th and they all essential say without saying it "The Bucs are 10th because they are somehow 7-3 but if they lose against Baltimore they will drop a bunch because we don't really believe in these guys yet". That's just it, I don't think anybody but the guys in the Bucs locker room think these guys are actually any good or a real contender. It's disrespect across the board and it's incredible motivation for a team that is playing loose and with a supreme level of confidence right now. They have proven they can win on the road, they know they have a baller for a QB, they love their coach, they have rallied back from deficits all year and they are learning how to win. What's not to love?

The Bucs are 5-0 ATS on the road this year and going back to last year they have covered 9 of their last 10 on the road. I don't see these guys melting down on the road in a hostile environment for a few reasons. #1 They are comfortable on the road. #2. The have a great young QB and they don't turn the ball over as they've given it away just 14 times in 10 games. #3 They are too young to know any better than to play hard every game. There are no egos, just a team getting better each week and playing as a unit. The Bucs were blown out by Pittsburgh and New Orleans earlier in the year and the "they aren't good against good teams" argument may have held some weight but just a few weeks ago they waltzed into the Georgia Dome as 10 point dogs in a game many expected them to get pasted in and all they did was battle all game. They got down 14-0 early but showed no panic and no quit as they only lost by 6 against a team many consider the best in the NFL they and actually had a chance to win the game SU on the final possession.

If you had asked me about the Bucs in July I would have told you I loved them this year and their season wins total OVER would have been my biggest bet but I pussied out and actually thought they wouldn't be as good as I thought they would be. Well I think the Bucs earn some more respect on Sunday as they give the Ravens one hell of a scare and prove they are for real.

Good work this year -- I usually try to catch your insight since it's top notch. However, I am troubled by one of your picks. What do you think?

5-0 ATS, but look who they were up against. @CAR, @CIN, @ARI, @ATL, and @SF - pretty poor competition. Plus, I could argue that covering @ATL was more of ATL punting twice in TB territory during the 4th quarter (conservative play with Roddey White hurt) and dismal special teams play. That game wasn't that close, and when TB played better competition like NO and PIT, they were destroyed at home. Thus, they really haven't proven anything vs. quality teams.  

PS - Knocking Baltimore because they didn't perform in tough situational games (CLE, BUF, and DEN) is misleading. For example, not covering vs. CLE with @PIT on deck isn't a reason to fade a team. 

Good luck! 

 
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Posted: #89

I also hit Minny -1.

I gotta be nuts betting this team again.

 

 
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Posted: #90

GB +115 ML

SD +125 ML

Looking into the Chiefs and Bears as well.

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by JohnAlz:

I had a nice writeup for the GB/ATL game, but as I was wrapping it up my computer decided to person out on me and close Internet Explorer.  I'm not going to even begin to put together what I had written because it was full of numbers, stats, etc. that I honestly don't feel like digging up again.  I'll keep it simple (which I should have done to begin with) and just comment on a few dynamics that stuck out to me about this game.  Biggest X factor to me is the passing game in relation to Atlanta.  Atlanta is ranked 24th in pass defense in the league.  Going against a pass happy, productive GB offense smells like trouble to me.  I expect Jennings and Driver to be all over the field.  I also expect Rodgers to have some tricks up his sleeve.  ATL will be expecting GB to pass (or at least they should be) for 3 reasons.  1)  GB's bread and butter is the pass.  2)  GB's running game is almost nonexistent this season since Grant's injury.  3)  ATL defends the run well.  The defense is giving up 94 yards on average a game.  GB will be ready for this.  I'd look for some strange routes to be ran and lots of hot reads by Rodgers.  Offensively, I see Matt Ryan having some problems.  GB's secondary aren't slouches.  Imo Charles Woodson is the best corner in the league.  I know there's all this Revis hype, but Woodson produces year after year.  GB is ranked 12th in the league against the pass, but I think that ranking is a little skewed by their defensive slow start.  I can't remember exact numbers (like I said, I'm not digging all this shit up again thanks to Microsoft), but the GB defense has been monstrous in their last 3 games.  They seem to finally be clicking well and playing the way everyone expected them to.  Atlanta will probably try to double Matthews and give him hell all day which will create holes and opportunity for the GB D line.  If GB can dominate the ATL run game and force Ryan to throw the ball more, we should see some turnovers.

Not the writeup I wanted to give, but like I said, I'm lazy and don't have the time to cap this game all over again.  Loving GB though.  They have the momentum.  Love Glyde's comments too about the excessive celebration after Atlanta's last game.  Pack attack will put an end to that nonsense. 

Been killing it the past 2 weeks.  Hopefully I don't take some bad beats which tends to be the trend when I get going 

GB +2

TB+ 7.5

PHILLY -3.5 (my book won't let me buy the hook which I'm sure will be my demise on Sunday)

BOL to all   

Good stuff.  On the Pack as well.  I'm prob gonna pass on TB though.  I was ready to hammer them at 9, but it jumped to 7.5 so fast....waiting for it to float up again......

 
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Posted: #92
Ravens and Denver get it done at home. Bradford and company will find it rather hard to breathe in the 2nd half when the sun fades and the temps drop into the low 30's.....that cold air burns your lungs....

gl bro
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by JohnAlz:

I had a nice writeup for the GB/ATL game, but as I was wrapping it up my computer decided to person out on me and close Internet Explorer.  I'm not going to even begin to put together what I had written because it was full of numbers, stats, etc. that I honestly don't feel like digging up again.  I'll keep it simple (which I should have done to begin with) and just comment on a few dynamics that stuck out to me about this game.  Biggest X factor to me is the passing game in relation to Atlanta.  Atlanta is ranked 24th in pass defense in the league.  Going against a pass happy, productive GB offense smells like trouble to me.  I expect Jennings and Driver to be all over the field.  I also expect Rodgers to have some tricks up his sleeve.  ATL will be expecting GB to pass (or at least they should be) for 3 reasons.  1)  GB's bread and butter is the pass.  2)  GB's running game is almost nonexistent this season since Grant's injury.  3)  ATL defends the run well.  The defense is giving up 94 yards on average a game.  GB will be ready for this.  I'd look for some strange routes to be ran and lots of hot reads by Rodgers.  Offensively, I see Matt Ryan having some problems.  GB's secondary aren't slouches.  Imo Charles Woodson is the best corner in the league.  I know there's all this Revis hype, but Woodson produces year after year.  GB is ranked 12th in the league against the pass, but I think that ranking is a little skewed by their defensive slow start.  I can't remember exact numbers (like I said, I'm not digging all this shit up again thanks to Microsoft), but the GB defense has been monstrous in their last 3 games.  They seem to finally be clicking well and playing the way everyone expected them to.  Atlanta will probably try to double Matthews and give him hell all day which will create holes and opportunity for the GB D line.  If GB can dominate the ATL run game and force Ryan to throw the ball more, we should see some turnovers.

Not the writeup I wanted to give, but like I said, I'm lazy and don't have the time to cap this game all over again.  Loving GB though.  They have the momentum.  Love Glyde's comments too about the excessive celebration after Atlanta's last game.  Pack attack will put an end to that nonsense. 

Been killing it the past 2 weeks.  Hopefully I don't take some bad beats which tends to be the trend when I get going 

GB +2

TB+ 7.5

PHILLY -3.5 (my book won't let me buy the hook which I'm sure will be my demise on Sunday)

BOL to all   



Good stuff. I've been tempted all week to fire on the Pack but something is holding me back. Those Falcons are just so damn pesky.

GL on the Pack though John.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by behdthscene:


Good work this year -- I usually try to catch your insight since it's top notch. However, I am troubled by one of your picks. What do you think?

5-0 ATS, but look who they were up against. @CAR, @CIN, @ARI, @ATL, and @SF - pretty poor competition. Plus, I could argue that covering @ATL was more of ATL punting twice in TB territory during the 4th quarter (conservative play with Roddey White hurt) and dismal special teams play. That game wasn't that close, and when TB played better competition like NO and PIT, they were destroyed at home. Thus, they really haven't proven anything vs. quality teams.  

PS - Knocking Baltimore because they didn't perform in tough situational games (CLE, BUF, and DEN) is misleading. For example, not covering vs. CLE with @PIT on deck isn't a reason to fade a team. 

Good luck! 



5-0 ATS is not the same as 5-0 SU so the level of competition factor is quite a bit different when talking ATS vs SU. Bottom line is they are road covering machines continually being undervalued and surpassing expectations regardless of who they play.

As far the 2nd bold part, problem there is Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh next week on SNF so that Cleveland situation may indeed be relevant here.

Good counter points though. GL.
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

I also hit Minny -1.

I gotta be nuts betting this team again.

 



Tell me about it.

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts in the Eagles/Bears game.


 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Flutiemaniac341:

without kenny britt the titans have been completely one dimensional and their starting a rookie qb on the road. dont like that one at all. that im a big texans fan..hehe

i think the texans make a statement here after two heartbreakers. they had the same situation last year after blowing a few games and went on a winning streak to finish the year just missing the playoffs on the last day. the texans are the ultimate teaser team. the pressure is off and i expect a big effort



Good points. I just feel the situation is one where the Titans show up big. The Texans did win 4 straight to end last year but only 1 was by over a TD.

GL Flutie.
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Ravens and Denver get it done at home. Bradford and company will find it rather hard to breathe in the 2nd half when the sun fades and the temps drop into the low 30's.....that cold air burns your lungs....

gl bro


I don't buy that at all. St. Louis should control the clock and the Broncos old defense will be the ones on the field sucking wind while the young Rams wear em out.

Denver SU at home over the last five years is just a .500 team. The altitude argument is a big myth. Rams are better and should win SU.

GL. The way I've been going I might feel good having Ravens and Broncos tickets.
 
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Posted: #98
Final easy to read card for Sunday:


St. Louis +4 & ML +185

Tampa Bay +9

Carolina +10 & ML +390

Minnesota +1

Tennessee +7 (hook) & ML +225


 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



I don't buy that at all. St. Louis should control the clock and the Broncos old defense will be the ones on the field sucking wind while the young Rams wear em out.

Denver SU at home over the last five years is just a .500 team. The altitude argument is a big myth. Rams are better and should win SU.

GL. The way I've been going I might feel good having Ravens and Broncos tickets.


Altitude factor is most definately not a myth.

GL
 
 
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Posted: #100

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



Tell me about it.

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts in the Eagles/Bears game.


Just a simple fade of Philly.  Young team playing on the road, overrated, and with some key defensive injuries.

Locked up Bears +3.5 as I noticed it was trending down at some books. 

So Minny -1, Green Bay ML +115, San Diego ML +125, and Bears +3.5 so far.  Might just leave it at that.

GL to all. 

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