Mac, help me make sense of this shitball card.
I've broken up the card into three categories. One is the "high point spread" section, one is the "spread is at or around 3" section, and the last is the "spread is at or around 3, but involving a home doggie" section.
Okay, the big spread games.....
Cincy -14. Cincy is in the absolute perfect spot to blowout the Brownies, but I don't think I can lay two touchdowns with this offense. While a dominant 31-3 final is very possible, so is a lethargic 24-14 victory where they win every statistical category, but the the lack of big plays and a Josh Cribbs special teams TD turnout to be the reason for a non cover.
Minny -10.5. As good as Minny has been playing, my gut says Chicago covers a high number here. Can I back them against a team playing as good as Minny though? No. They are way to inconsistant and I never know who is gonna show up. Sometimes they play good, but Cutler throws away the game(GB-SF). Sometimes they play like dogshit, but circumstances make them look a little better than they were(Pitt-Phi). Sometimes they look like world beaters(Cle-Det). And then there's the Cincinnati debacle. Who the fuck knows what Bear team will show up against Minny? Like I said, my gut thinks they cover the number against their heated division rival, but can I back them?
Philly -9. My gut says Philly, but Washington's underrated defense worries me a bit laying 9. Philly has lived and died with the big play this year, and if they hit a couple of DeSean Jackson specials, they SHOULD clobber Washington. I almost expect Philly to have at least one huge play, but if Washington's defense and special teams hold true(and they should), this could be a 20-16 game where after the game you wonder, "How the fuck did I not take the points here?" Philly won their first matchup handily, but I believe they struck twice very early in the game on two huge plays, and then put the game out of reach on another. Everything else in the box score showed an even game(if not in Wash's favor), but you have to assume Philly's play would have been different if they didn't hold 17-0 and 27-7 leads. I don't have a clue in what to think of the rematch.
Atlanta -12. Mac, we both are on the same page with the Falcons. We called them overrated in the preseason. We laughed at how pathetic their defense is. We both got a little nervous early on when they were playing good ball and proving us wrong. But the last month the mediocre Falcon team we thought they were has come about. With all that said, this is definitely a perfect spot for them to blow the Bucs out of the water. I can't lay 12 with that pathetic defense though. Can you?
San Diego -13. Even though the Chiefs were awfully outplayed by the Steelers last week, they somehow found a way to pull off possibly the biggest upset of the entire NFL season. What better time for them to fly to the West Coast with some swagger and a victory hangover and get skullfucked by a streaking Charger squad. Quite possibly the only game in this set of "big spread" games that I can look at and confidently say, "I think the Chargers will cover that big number!" Still.....something is majorly wrong(at least it is in my world) where the only real pick I have confidence in is a 13 point fav. I will lay that wood occasionally, but I don't have to like it.
The games at or around -3.......
Jets -3. Two teams who are built fairly alike on offense. Good running games, horrible aerial attacks. Jets have an excuse passing the ball as they have a rookie QB who has no one to throw to. What's Carolina's excuse? I actually lean pretty hard here towards the Jets(probably the only game other than SD that I have any real opinion towards). Jets have had a pretty rough schedule and if they didn't look like world beaters the first three weeks, people would probably look at this season like "the Jets are improving and close to being a pretty good team" rather than the "Jets suck cock" sentiment thrown around the last month. Steve Smith is probably the only real weapon Delhomme has to throw to, but I have faith Revis will do a great job in keeping him in check. Being this week is like the Twilight Zone week of all weeks, there are a couple things keeping me from locking up my bet. Carolina happens to be coming off 10 days rest. Carolina also was criticized heavily in abandoning their run game last Thursday night. I see them sticking to the run for four quarters, and that(IMO) is the way to beat the Jets. Stick to the run game and do not allow them to blitz freely on Delhomme.
Ten -3 I actually was digging Arizona here, but Warner being injured is gonna be the deal breaker in passing. The Titans have looked impressive lately, but three of their four wins were against teams with subpar quarterbacks(Garrard is arguable I guess). I'm not sure they can stop the Arizona aerial attack, but the point is moot with Warner being hurt. Whether he plays or not, I'm staying away.
SF-3. I do not see any angle whatsoever to pick a side here.
Baltimore -2. I can ramble all day long about this game, but with Big Ben's brain being scrambled again, I just can't put my money on this. Take away Ben's concussion and I would LOVE Pit, but it is what it is, and I'm just gonna stay away.
NO-1 or so. Like Zona and Pitt, New Orleans is another game where injuries are gonna keep me away from action. A few key guys are probable and should play for the Saints, but how healthy/rusty are they? Last week, I took a shot with New Orleans against the shitbag Bucs, but I don't think I have the balls to bet them against Brady. Not with the injuries on the D-line and in the secondary.
The games around -3 involving home dogs.......
Miami -3. Here is one that originally jumped off the paper at me, but now I am having second thoughts. I am the last guy in the world you will ever see throwing around the phrase "fading the public." For the most part, I believe it is all horseshit, and I don't acknowledge people when their only reason for picking a game is "fading the public." Capping games with success is a complicated puzzle at times and what other people like is a very small piece of the puzzle. A VERY SMALL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE. Now that you know that, I admit I am very bothered at this game and this line for the very reason I normally detest. Every Tom, Dick, and Sally seem to LOVE the Phins. In my work pool, 32 out of 33 people took the Dolphins -3 with 8 being Best Bets(note: my work pool is filled with squares). A couple of my buddies are Bills fans and they think Miami is gonna rout their team. All the newspaper "experts" that are lucky to go .500 on the year are on Miami. And the few Bills supporters I do find have absolutely NOTHING to say about the game except that wretched phrase "I'm fading the public." For whatever reason, I am irked about something I normally don't even look at, and I am gonna pass on this one now.
Indy -3.5. This seems to be setting up perfectly for a Houston victory, but can I(you) really fade Peyton Manning right now? I cannot do it as much as I believe the earth, sun, moon, and stars are aligned for a Texan SU victory.
Seattle -3. Ahhh, this looks to be like a spot to take the putrid Rams, but Bulger is out and Jackson is questionable. Seattle is brutal on the road and all, but they have taken care of business against bad teams and St Louis fits that profile. I can see either team winning by three touchdowns. I can see with team winning on a last second field goal. I can see it being a 47-41 OT shootout. I can see it being a 13-10 shitfest. In other words, PASS.
So Mac(or anyone else out there), what do you think about my two strongest leans(Jets and SD) and on this card on a whole?
CLE/CIN - I'm laying the wood here. This to me looks similar to the Oakland/Dallas game, I just can't see how the Browns score. They had their little offensive show last week against a horrific Lions defense and now people suddenly think there is hope. When the two excellent Bengals corners completely shut down the mediocre at best Browns WR then what are they going to do? Run it? I doubt it. Are people forgetting this is the same offense that scored what, 5 offensive TD's in 15 games? I've read a few articles this week about just how pissed off the Bengals are after last weeks game. Carson Palmer said it is the maddest the team has ever been since he's been there. Good. If I'm laying this kind of wood I want to know the superior team comes out motivated and focused. I'm glad I waited on this line as -13.5's are out there now, maybe she'll move to 13. The Bengals have lost outright every time they've been favored this season but I think that trend changes here as like I said I just can't see how the Browns score. Maybe Josh Cribbs returns a kick or two or maybe they get a back door score who knows, but I wouldn't bet on it. If Brady Quinn goes deep I almost expect these Bengals corners to come up with a couple of balls, they would make better receivers than what the Browns will be chucking out there.
CHI/MIN – You pretty much summed it up. Minnesota is the better team but this is a tough line. I can't lay this in a division game against a team that still has a defense. I know I'm laying wood with Cincy in a division game but the Browns have nothing. I wouldn't back Chicago here but certainly wouldn't lay -10.5. Pass.
WSH/PHI – Washington's defense has been scrapping it out in recent weeks. Philadelphia still relies too much on the big play for my liking. The Eagles tend to blowout bad teams but I can't lay this many points against a decent defense and also considering the Skins may be a little sour after Philly whooped em in their house on MNF earlier this year. Pass.
TB/ATL – I agree whole heartedly here. When you look at the matchup of Tampa bay @ Atlanta you think this is a great spot for a blowout. When you see -11.5/12 you say ummmmmmm........blah. There's something off about the Falcons this year and it's not just their defense. The offense is a bit stagnant. However maybe they get some momentum going after the 4th quarter last week when they finally came alive. Atlanta should blow them out here but I'm not going to get caught laying 12 points to find out.
KC/SD – I still think the Chiefs are one of the two or three worst teams in the league. When you watch these guys they are truly pathetic. They've capitalized on some key miscues by their opponents this year and have looked somewhat respectable. Don't be fooled, they are simply wretched. Pittsburgh was punking them last week but then they threw a pick in the end zone and another in KC territory that bounced off Miller's hands right to the defender. Then got a little momentum and we all know what happened. The kick return TD didn't hurt either. Games aren't played in the box score but if you look at the stat sheet against the good teams they've played this year it looks pretty terrible for the Chiefs. Having said all that I lean SD here but don't think I can pull the trigger. I'm just not completely sold the Chargers show up. I know Denver won on Thursday and look good again but the Chargers have had a big run lately and are coming off a big win. If SD shows up they win by 20+. I don't know though I'm still conflicted, I hate how many big favs I've been playing the last two weeks and maybe I'm still bitter about fading KC last week. We'll see.
CAR/NYJ – I was leaning the Jets here too but the juice going up is just enough to push me off. This is a nice spot for the Jets to show up and get a big win but in similar spots here at home the last few weeks against the Jags and Fish they have not gotten it done. Carolina's defense is really banged up and they've been terrible against the run. If the Jets run it hard and often they should do well offensively. I don't think the Panthers will be able to throw either but this running game is very good. The Jets run D didn't look bad last week without Jenkins against the Pats but they aren't a power run team like carolina. If the Jets contain the run game they cover, if not, who knows. Tough game for me to call.
ARZ/TEN – Tough to bet against Tennessee right now. They are rolling and getting their secondary back from injury is a huge bonus to this defense. Arizona has been machines on the road but their run defense has quietly vanished the last few weeks. Warner is banged up and they have a huge game at home next week on SNF against the Vikes to look forward to. Give Matty Schaub some credit too! Haha. Pass.
JAX/SF – Mostly a gut feel here but I'm feeling the Niners for some reason. I don't think Jacksonville is that great. They've won against shit teams and have not looked impressive doing it. I know the Niners are 4-6 but something tells me they carry over the momentum from the 2nd half last week. Green bay let up a bit but the Niners really got going and that is the kind of momentum that can carry over and that this team has been looking for. Jacksonville has no push rush whatsoever and with Mathis out this week their secondary looks horrendous. Statement game from Smith this week? I know that isn't a compelling argument but my gut is telling me to take SF here.
PIT/BAL – If Ben is healthy here I play the Steelers no questions asked. I may be delusional but I still feel they are one of the best teams in the league. Not a fan of Baltimore at all. Pittsburgh should be able to throw on them and now that their overachieving offense has been figured out and shut down in recent weeks I think PIT keeps em in check. The vets have been talking this week in PIT and circling the wagons so I think they come out very focused. It's almost do or die for them and they know they are way to good to be 6-5 and close to being dead. Something fishy is going on here though. Ben has said he's going to play but why hasn't this line come out at most major books? Are the Steelers bluffing and Dixon really will start?
NE/NO – I'm feeling New Orleans. Yes they have been banged up on D but good news is Sedrick Ellis looks like he's 100% and is huge addition back to this D-line as they have not been nearly the same without him. Greer is also expected back in the secondary. You know if you break down the Saints games this year they have been freakishly good. The only thing that has made them look human was some turnovers in a stretch of games back there against bad teams. If they hang onto the ball here they will win. I've watched the Patriots the last three weeks and they simply cannot rush the passer. If they can't do that here Brees will pick them apart. New Orleans can also run the ball this season. The Pats are dangerous in the pass game but they can't run it and I don't think they have a good enough defense to compete on the road against an offense of this caliber. There's a reason Belichick went for it on 4th down at his own 28 against the Colts. Brees has been unreal in this done the past two years as well. If the Saints hold onto the ball they get a nice win.
MIA/BUF – I'm going to be on the Bills here for sure. I think I already mentioned why an earlier post but I just don't like Miami in this spot at all. I still think they are horribly overrated and this is a deadly spot. Division game up there in the chilly air for a Florida team, Chad Henne and the bad receivers (I'd take Fitzpatrick and the Bills weapons any day), crazy shit happens in this stadium, Bills special teams are dangerous at home, and I think I mentioned earlier as well how the Bills showed some life last week under their new coach. I also think they feel they owe their fans something as this is the only home game in a span for almost two months (from early Oct to late Dec) if you can believe it and they shit the bed in their last home game. Stroud and McGee, the Bills two best defensive players, look like they may be able to go this week as well. One other thing I didn't mention before is Miami suffered a HUGE loss last game when their NT Jason Ferguson who was having a great season was lost for the year. That is a massive blow to this defense not only because he was having a great year but they play the 3-4 and the NT is the most important player in that scheme. Miami's starting center is not expected to play either. Will hold out for a better line.
IND/HOU – I would have played Houston here if I didn't lose money on them last week and come away asking myself why I made such a shitty bet. They did not look good on MNF. Having said that when good teams usually play bad on national TV they usually bounce back with a strong performance the next week. But I can't fade Peyton Manning at this price. The Colts have been begging for a loss for 4 weeks but I just don't have a good enough feel here. Would I be surprised if the Colts squeaked out another 24-20 nailer biter? Absolutely not. Would I be surprised if Houston came out with a strong performance and gave the Colts their 1st loss? Absolutely not. Pass.
SEA/STL – I was going to play the Rams here for sure until I heard Bulger was out. That really pissed me off. I loved the Rams in this spot but want nothing to do with Kyle Boller at all. A shrug of the shoulders and a pass.
That's all I got. For the rest of the week right now it's looking like the Bengals, Bills, Saints, Niners , and Steelers for me but that is subject to change, so much for a shit card haha. I haven't played any of them yet though as I actually think I can get better lines on them all, except maybe the Niners.
Nice hit on Thanksgiving. Don't know
your record but you've been killing for quite a stretch now. I was
with you on that GB game. Had the same feel and thoughts but somehow
ended up with a losing ticket. 
I gotta stick to full games. 279-91 in
yards and they can't be up by 7 at the half, that's good stuff. A
missed FG and settling for two FG's from inside the 10 later and that
was all she wrote. Due for a break Sunday after that.
If anyone else is out there please
chime in as it makes for a great discussion.
Mac and Glyde -
Great write-ups. My leans this week were Texans, Jets, and Minny but I am having serious doubts pulling the trigger on the first two. I shared the pitiful loss by the Texans last week and although I feel like this is the game that they breakthrough, I remember that the breakthrough game was lsupposed to be last week vs the Titans - and they shit the bed. Even though Indy has been winning close, I don't see that this is a bending Colts team that is about to break. Houston is in a hole and I don't see this being close. Either Texans win, or Colts win convincingly. The points are insignificant.
As far as the Jets, it is tough to back a team that hasn't showed you anything in a month, in the hopes that this weekend, they pull it together and back to their beginning of the season form. They have had many must-win games, and somehow they have found a way to fail in all of them. I feel stronger about the Jets covering than Carolina, but am not sure I could look in the mirror if I back the Jets and they continue their slide.
I originally liked the Bears in this spot, but the more I look into this game, the Bears are a mess. Their defense is horrendous without Urlacher. He could drop back into coverage which most linebackers are not able to do, and his absence has been impactful. On offense, Hester is the only potential threat and Forte is not living up to his billing. I recognize the divisional matchup but I can't see Minny not winning by at least 2 touchdowns. All-Day should do well against the Bears 26th ranked run defense, and with Antoine Winfield back, and Favre dialed in with the offense right now, I just don't see how the Bears can keep pace - even with an off-day for Minny.
Tempted with the points with the Rams but although Seattle is not a good football team, they have owned the Rams.
Liking Buffalo at +3.5 also, but am still handicapping the game.
I appreciate the writeups guys. Let's do this Sunday.
Mac and Glyde -
Great write-ups. My leans this week were Texans, Jets, and Minny but I am having serious doubts pulling the trigger on the first two. I shared the pitiful loss by the Texans last week and although I feel like this is the game that they breakthrough, I remember that the breakthrough game was lsupposed to be last week vs the Titans - and they shit the bed. Even though Indy has been winning close, I don't see that this is a bending Colts team that is about to break. Houston is in a hole and I don't see this being close. Either Texans win, or Colts win convincingly. The points are insignificant.
As far as the Jets, it is tough to back a team that hasn't showed you anything in a month, in the hopes that this weekend, they pull it together and back to their beginning of the season form. They have had many must-win games, and somehow they have found a way to fail in all of them. I feel stronger about the Jets covering than Carolina, but am not sure I could look in the mirror if I back the Jets and they continue their slide.
I originally liked the Bears in this spot, but the more I look into this game, the Bears are a mess. Their defense is horrendous without Urlacher. He could drop back into coverage which most linebackers are not able to do, and his absence has been impactful. On offense, Hester is the only potential threat and Forte is not living up to his billing. I recognize the divisional matchup but I can't see Minny not winning by at least 2 touchdowns. All-Day should do well against the Bears 26th ranked run defense, and with Antoine Winfield back, and Favre dialed in with the offense right now, I just don't see how the Bears can keep pace - even with an off-day for Minny.
Tempted with the points with the Rams but although Seattle is not a good football team, they have owned the Rams.
Liking Buffalo at +3.5 also, but am still handicapping the game.
I appreciate the writeups guys. Let's do this Sunday.
Agreed on Hou and it is still under consideration, Just need more time to sort through here. Just when you want to write off this team, they face the undefeated Colts who have owned them. A lot of people were picking this game a few weeks ago as the Colts first loss.
The more I cap this game though, I am liking the OVER. Houston and the Colts only put up 17 pts last week and Kubiak has put a huge focus on offesive production in practice. I see some big plays running and passing from the Texans this week. On the other side of the coin, Manning is going to score. If they fall behind by a few touchdowns, we all know they he is going to play catch up successfully.
In the matchup of these two teams over the last 10 games, Indy has scored more than 30 pts all but twice. I think they put up their usual number on Sunday. Over these 10 games Houston was averaging in the 20s with only 3 sneaking below in the total at 17pts. Only 17 pts scored were scored the last two regular season games against Tennesee and Indy, and we all know this is a strong offensive Houston team. The comments from coach and focus in practice this week, coupled with any outside chance Manning is going for the single season passing record to beat Marino, it just aligns. 
Also, the majority was on the over a couple of weeks ago and I think that we are finally going to see that game on Sunday.
Any thoughts?
Fuck dude, where do I start?
If Brady Quinn goes deep I almost expect these Bengals corners to come up with a couple of balls, they would make better receivers than what the Browns will be chucking out there. 
Don't be fooled, they are simply wretched.
Give Matty Schaub some credit too! Haha. Pass. I looked back to what I wrote, and it was kinda fuzzy. When I said three of the four QB's Tennessee faced were ass, I said that thinking Schaub was the good one, and out of the three "ass" guys, Garrard could arguably be seen as "okay."
Sucks you had to take an L on the Pack first half. Like you said, absolute domination. Between the entire Lions team saying "surprise!!" and playing(it bugged me I was laying 10.5 when it should have been 8 or so with the big dogs playing), and Jordy fumbling the opening kickoff, I was fairly irritated for most of that game. Nice hit on Dallas though. I fell asleep for most of the 2nd half, but I woke up to Gradkowski looking like Steve Young(okay maybe I'm exaggerating) in his march for a backdoor cover. Dallas shut him down and rightfully so......they absolutely deserved to cover that game.
MIA/BUF – I'm going to be on the Bills here for sure. I think I already mentioned why an earlier post but I just don't like Miami in this spot at all. I still think they are horribly overrated and this is a deadly spot. Division game up there in the chilly air for a Florida team, Chad Henne and the bad receivers (I'd take Fitzpatrick and the Bills weapons any day), crazy shit happens in this stadium, Bills special teams are dangerous at home, and I think I mentioned earlier as well how the Bills showed some life last week under their new coach. I also think they feel they owe their fans something as this is the only home game in a span for almost two months (from early Oct to late Dec) if you can believe it and they shit the bed in their last home game. Stroud and McGee, the Bills two best defensive players, look like they may be able to go this week as well. One other thing I didn't mention before is Miami suffered a HUGE loss last game when their NT Jason Ferguson who was having a great season was lost for the year. That is a massive blow to this defense not only because he was having a great year but they play the 3-4 and the NT is the most important player in that scheme. Miami's starting center is not expected to play either. Will hold out for a better line. I'm sold! Miami bet is 100% off the table now.
I agree with your assessment of the Steelers. I think they could very well be the best team in the AFC although Cincy, Indy, and NE backers all will have very good arguments on the contrary. I have a bunch of reasons, but my main reason is them turning over the ball. When and if they stop being so sloppy with the ball, this team should go on quite a run. Throughout the year, I always try to keep a gauge on "good teams who turn the ball over and bad teams who don't turn the ball over." It isn't an exact science as the turnover can be fairly unpredictable, but the last few years I have gone on a few nice runs riding either the good team who turns it over too much(thus giving them a worse record than they deserve and more value because of public perception), or fading a bad team that was getting all the bounces and who people think they are better than they are. When these teams come down to earth, fade while the fading is good. It's kind of like that turnover thread you made back in August. Off the top of my head, Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta all were tops in the turnovers department last year. This year they aren't getting all the good bounces, and voila......a bunch of teams that are barely .500. That was a killer thread.
Also, you should most definitely get a better line for all those games(except SF).
I gotta get back to bed. I have a shitload of things to do tomorrow, and I need my beauty sleep. I'll try to get on tomorrow night or Sunday morning to add to the discussion. As usual, good insight, and good luck with your plays.
Mac and Glyde -
Great write-ups. My leans this week were Texans, Jets, and Minny but I am having serious doubts pulling the trigger on the first two. I shared the pitiful loss by the Texans last week and although I feel like this is the game that they breakthrough, I remember that the breakthrough game was lsupposed to be last week vs the Titans - and they shit the bed. Even though Indy has been winning close, I don't see that this is a bending Colts team that is about to break. Houston is in a hole and I don't see this being close. Either Texans win, or Colts win convincingly. The points are insignificant.
As far as the Jets, it is tough to back a team that hasn't showed you anything in a month, in the hopes that this weekend, they pull it together and back to their beginning of the season form. They have had many must-win games, and somehow they have found a way to fail in all of them. I feel stronger about the Jets covering than Carolina, but am not sure I could look in the mirror if I back the Jets and they continue their slide.
I originally liked the Bears in this spot, but the more I look into this game, the Bears are a mess. Their defense is horrendous without Urlacher. He could drop back into coverage which most linebackers are not able to do, and his absence has been impactful. On offense, Hester is the only potential threat and Forte is not living up to his billing. I recognize the divisional matchup but I can't see Minny not winning by at least 2 touchdowns. All-Day should do well against the Bears 26th ranked run defense, and with Antoine Winfield back, and Favre dialed in with the offense right now, I just don't see how the Bears can keep pace - even with an off-day for Minny.
Tempted with the points with the Rams but although Seattle is not a good football team, they have owned the Rams.
Liking Buffalo at +3.5 also, but am still handicapping the game.
I appreciate the writeups guys. Let's do this Sunday.
Good stuff, Brock.
Sounds like you are a bit torn on the Indy game. My opinion is to stay the hell away. Easier said than done though, especially in such a marquee matchup. Although I lean Chicago(I don't dare bet it though), I cannot argue with your Minny points. They are playing incredible ball and they very well will beat the Bears by two touchdowns.
Good luck, Sunday.
Good stuff, Brock.
Sounds like you are a bit torn on the Indy game. My opinion is to stay the hell away. Easier said than done though, especially in such a marquee matchup. Although I lean Chicago(I don't dare bet it though), I cannot argue with your Minny points. They are playing incredible ball and they very well will beat the Bears by two touchdowns.
Good luck, Sunday.
Floyd. Have you narrowed down your card yet? No responses to the Houston OVER and am leaning that direction as well as Buffalo, Houston, 49rs, Jets, and Minny. I know that week 12 is wacky, but the dogs have been biting lately and I can make a case for most of these 3pt favs/dogs to win the game. 
Floyd. Have you narrowed down your card yet? No responses to the Houston OVER and am leaning that direction as well as Buffalo, Houston, 49rs, Jets, and Minny. I know that week 12 is wacky, but the dogs have been biting lately and I can make a case for most of these 3pt favs/dogs to win the game.
Established in 1995,
GL mah man 
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