NFL Week 11

Already locked up Indy, and anxiously awaiting a line for the SD game.  Newspapers by me both had Denver at a pick'em and if that is true, I am all over the Chargers.  Call me Squarey McSquare this week, but I think both of those teams show up and win the obvious.

I'm digging Oakland plus whatever points I can get.  It all has been said already, and I agree.  Short story, Cincy is banged up after a slugfest with Pitt, and due for a letdown after winning some big games.  Yes Oakland blows, but their defense is somewhat respectable and should play okay in front of their home crowd.  The coaches seem to be feeding off the run game(unlike a few weeks back where they seemed to think Russell throwing on 1st down would help the team), and while Cincy is hard to run on, persistance should pay off.  I'm really hoping Gradkowski gets the start.  He isn't exactly a world beater, but he has shown signs of competance in starts past, something I can't say about Russell.

Probably gonna stay off the Giants.  I've been eyeing this game for a couple weeks, but the line is about perfect, and right now the Giants gotta prove something to me before I lay anything over 4.5 with them.

Like the Pats for all the reasons you mentioned, but 11 is just too high for me.  I penciled it in at 7, and 10.5/11 doesn't float my boat.

Miami plus 3 is looking to be a play.  Ronnie Brown being hurt is kinda fucking things, and I hope Miami has Plan B for running the Wildcat.  Last week, the Fins burnt me, and this may sound like sour grapes, but I feel I deserved a W with them.  There was a point in the game about halfway through the 3rd quarter where Miami had a 19-6 lead and Brown had a nice run to set up what would have been a 1st and goal.  BUT HE FUMBLED.  I'm not a fan of the woulda coulda shoulda game, but the way the game was flowing, they WOULDA scored a TD to finish that drive and taken a commanding 26-6 lead.  In that scenario, I feel that game would have ended WAY differently than the shitfest that occurred.  What could have been 26-6 winds up being 19-16, and every drop of momentum went towards TB.  Anyway, I'm gonna get back on them.  Both teams sport a vicious run game, and while I don't think either team flat out stops their opponent, Miami has the better chance of slowing them down(imo).  Hopefully Pat White is the Plan B I mentioned earlier, and the Wildcat wildcard does it's job and gashes up the Carolina D.

Not really feeling anything else on this card.  My gut tells me that Jax carves up the Bills, but my brain thinks the number is too high and also wants to avoid the Dick Jauron backlash.  My gut thinks the Bears Sunday night, but that may be a last minute play if I'm up a unit or two after the day's action.  It feels right, but I just don't see anything on paper to make it a bet.

Mac, how do you feel about the oddsmakers this year?  Honestly, I think they are on the fucking money with their shit.  Very little value in my mind, and when the lines are off, the team I don't like benefits from a loose line.  It seems like this year I have to squeeze out every ounce of my brainpower to come up with 3 or 4 games I like, where in years past I would have trouble trimming my card down to 5 or 6 games.  It hasn't effected my wallet(having a sweet year so far; knock on wood), but for Christ's Sake I would like to see a card once in a blue moon where I didn't have to work so hard to grab 8 or 9 teams and go 7-2 on the week.

 

 

Why would you guarantee their defense comes to play? In a similar spot earlier against the Browns their defense laid an egg and gave up almost 400 yards to the Browns!

extra juice

Both teams are bad but I really think the Browns are horrifically (is that a word?) bad. The Lions defense is soft but the Browns offensive is totally inept.

More importantly though the Lions have heart. They actually play hard in games despite their inferior talent every time they take the field. They've been competitive in almost every single game this year before their lack of talent and experience eventually does them in. They beat a bad Washington team here at home already this year and I expect them to do the same to a worse Browns team (although they did lose here to the Rams, to be fair the Rams aren't that horrible and Stafford was playing hurt in his 1st game back off a knee injury and Calvin Johnson didn't even suit up). These guys are bad but they won't go down without a fight, unlike the Browns who can even put up a fight.

Bruce Gradkowski goes for Oakland this week. Which is good news. I already made this bet thinking Russell would start but like it more now that Brucey gets the nod. He's terrible. But he's got to be better than JaMarcus Russell so that is a bonus.

Like Glyde pointed out, this Raiders team has a "few" pieces. They have a decent trio of running backs and they are all healthy now so I expect to see a heavy dose of the run here. If the Raiders coaching staff has any intelligence they will run the rock 80% of the time and stick with it. They also have a shutdown corner who can take away Ohco Cinco. Benson is banged up and it looks like he won't play, Larry Johnson won't do much as a replacement. And as it's been pointed out they are travelled way out to Oakland on a high after a couple slugfests to play a garbage team. This game reeks of an upset. However, I've had similar thoughts on these terrible teams earlier in the year and ended up so could Cincy win 38-0? Sure.

I can't seem to figure those Indy and SD games out. I was kind of sniffing around for reasons to play the home teams to be honest but as of yet don't feel good enough and will likely lay off and root for the road teams. Which is strange because if you asked me a week ago I would have told you I was going to hammer the Chargers here.

The Giants and Pats lines do look a bit big but I see strong efforts from them this week and I realize you can't see a line too high but I see them both comfortably covering the number. Although I saw the Jets in a very similar situation as the Giants last week and that turned out to be a bad bet.

I'll root for you on the Fish. Carolina has had a nice little resurgence here but they lost one of their best defensive players in LB Thomas Davis two weeks ago and their LT Jordan Gross last week, both for the year. Eventually those injuries will catch up to them. Will it be here?

I'm not so sure it's the oddsmakers with me so much as it is there just aren't as many attractive games to bet on with me. The gap between the good and the bad is huge this year and my style fits more so with betting games between good teams, not a shit team and a good one. This will probably be one of my biggest cards of the year at just 7 or 8 games. Looking back over bets I've made on spread full games (which is what I post here, too tough to track ML's 1st/2nd half etc) the last couple years I bet almost 7.5 games a week two years ago and close to 7 last year. This year I'm at about 5.8 (few unposted). Maybe it's just me whittling the card down but I agree in one way or another, the card just doesn't look as appetizing.

Forgot to add, GL this week Glyde.

The Browns played pretty good on Monday.  There offense was crisp and I like the way that Quinn was taking some big chances downfield.  Things are looking solid in Cleveland and I will be riding the gravy train all the way to the bank, I think that I am going to lay the rest of my bankroll, $22USD on them on Sunday. 

Sincerely,

SirJohnDrake

Andarmac- think I should take Oak at +9 or buy it back to +10. Thinking it won't be an issue as my feeling is Oak either wins or loses small but wanted your input. It will cost me -125 to grab this at +10

I should have added before that I think this line is set off of stats and records. Both look very similar but if anyone has watched games involving these two teams this year there is a large difference in how these teams play. Detroit battles with what they have while the Browns lay down. I had this line DET -6.5 and that's no joke.


<------------------- The Rivers avatar worked last week, let's try Megatron this week.

Or -105 to leave it as is. I am placing a 2k bet so wanted to get your input on what will be one of my larger wagers this season

Take the 9.

One of your largest wagers on the season on the Oakland Raiders.

What happened to your Sesame Street avatar?

Yess my man, this spot lines up right for me. I typically place around 3 to 5 hundred per bet but I am up some units and like this spot a lot. It appears you do too. Plus I LOVE that Bruce is starting and not that meatball JaMarcus.

Just win Bengals

Great Work andarmac99! 

"Thanks" for the insight!

I've lost twice this week on crap teams (Cleveland & Ball State).  Not a worst feeling than watching a team, you knew wasn't any good, getting beat ATS. 

Still love the analysis with Oakland.   Here we go again!

 

Thanks for the input. I wasn't aware Gradowski was starting. It shows all of the signs of an upset, but I have faith in Bengals winning. They might not cover. All they have to do is win for me. But you all do have me kind of second guessing. McFadden is also back to play.

You too bro.  

I think I am gonna steal the "Mayor of Squaresville" crown you wore last week(and killed with I may add).  I have the Colts locked in at +1, the Chargers locked in at -1, and now just talked myself into taking the Saints -11(gonna wait though, I have a feeling that drops by gametime).  It really bugs me to be on so many road teams in a week, but I'm gonna go with the flow.  Miami is already out of the way and with Oakland and Chicago as probable "home" wagers, I think this is shaping up to be a decent week.

With that, I leave this thread to head back to some more Modern Warfare 2!

keep up the good work andarmac.............Looks good for this week.   I personally think there will me no 10-0 teams this year, so yeah, two upsets..................Im surprised Washington isn't on your card.  They have fought hard in every game so far, always bad news giving double digits away to your divisional opponent...............

I like under in oakland and under in atlanta this two game is much sure..

I like under in oakland and under in atlanta this two game is much sure..

Chau, your avatar has my dick harder than a missile.

Looking good. Nothing like starting off the week with a little extra change. Great call on the Fish. I have been searching desperately for a reason to put me over the top on Baltimore but the price just isn't there. Unless there's a huge move I'm not getting in.

I'll be on the Bears though, but I'm gonna wait and see if a 3.5 pops up. Looking that way with this being the Sunday Nighter and the public all over Philly. All I've been hearing all week is how much Cutler sucks and how brutal he is in prime time games. There is talk Lovie could be fired as well and oh have you heard? The Bears D apparently sucks and Philadelphia will win by 30. Oh my dear me, how often have we seen this story before? (cough cough DAL/GB last week)   The Bears defensive is like the Chargers last week, they have very very stingy in giving up big touchdowns which is what this Philly offense needs to survive. Just look at last week they had the long drives in the 1st half and just couldn't punch it in and had to settle for 3 FG's. Only when SD got up big and didn't give a shit did they manage to punch it in. This team is a joke in the red zone, always has been and always will be as McNabb continues to come up small. Hopefully it's a David Akers fest.