NFL Super Bowl

^^^^^^^^That trend is 10-0 so far this postseason.

Been waiting for this move for ten days. Pinnacle just went to +3 - 110. Still holding at 44.5. I laid down a tease, Pitt +10 and over 37.5 and I'm a GB fan. GLA

The squares are descending on Vegas en mass. I expect a pushback from the sharps that will move the number back to 2.5 by kickoff. Total players can expect the number to go up,up and away. GLA

Just a FYI from an old timer, the line is not being moved on how the public in Vegas is betting this game,how a line move on a game of this magnitude would occur in Las Vegas,  Offshore moves line to -3-110, Some Vegas casinos move the line withen a few seconds based on off shore moves,sharps scurry through all the Vegas casinos that didn't move fast enough betting GB-2.5, Vegas than will move the line to 3.  My son works at a casino and he said there was GB betting early and now its been a lot more Pitt and the line went to -3.  Be careful I really believe GB is the right side, but what do I know, good luck young man. Hyman

Steelers ML

Solid team. Close, but steelers pull away late.

Gotta love Mac's threads

Good luck everyone..

 

After going back and forth on the game, I’ve finall decided to take Pitt +3

 

Despite having completely different styles both offenses have similar strengths and relative weaknesses. They both have top-6 quarterbacks, a ton of speedy and reliable receiving options, and a weakness of the offensive lines. The defenses are also similar in that they both have an elite pass rush, but both are beatable by the pass.

 

It makes sense for the Packers to be favored since they have a small statistical edge and have been outstanding the past several weeks. However, I think the Steelers have several huge advantages in the game and are the right play. The biggest IMO is that Ben Roethlisburger is one of the only QB’s that doesn’t let big hits affect his play. Most QB’s including Rodgers play worse after taking several sacks. Both QB’s are going to get sacked and hit a handful of times, and it is pretty clear Roethlisburger will handle it better. It seems that Rodgers has struggled late in games against physical defenses. I expect Pittsburgh’s physical defense to not only affect the play Rodgers, but those hits are going to hurt Green Bay’s less than physical receivers. Harrison is going to be out for blood, and Green Bay has way more players on offense they can’t afford to lose. I give Pittsburgh an edge towards the end of the game because of this.

 

The lack of a running game is also going to hurt the Packers in this game. In games against elite defenses (against NYJ and 3 against Chi), Green Bay struggled to run the ball and were forced into a ton of 3^rd and longs and therefore were terrible at converting 3^rd downs. Pittsburgh has a better run D than either of those teams and should be able to get a lot of drives to stall. It’s really amazing to me how so many think Green Bay will do just fine relying only the passing game.

 

While Pitt’s defense is only going to have to focus on the pass, Green Bay’s will have to focus on stopping everything. I think Pitt will struggle to run the ball, but they will at least get something out of their running game. And while all everyone is talking about is GB’s passing game, Pitt’s is very underrated. In fact they both have the same yards per pass. Mike Wallace can get open on anyone and Sanders and Brown are also good deep threats. These guys can definitely get open on Tramon Williams and Sam Shields.

 

As andarmac mentioned, the experience factor should be huge. The field might slightly favor GB since both teams have speed on defense and have very fast receivers. Finally, Lil Wayne’s Green and Yellow song has got to give the Packers some bad kharma.

 

So in the end I think the matchups give a slight edge to Pitt and they will have a big edge toward the end of the game, so I’m going with Pitt +3.

Here are my favorite other bets on the game:

 

GB/ Pitt Over 45

 

I expect both offenses to struggle for much of the game, but I still like the over. Both offenses are going to rely on big plays, and there is a high likelihood of turnovers, pick 6’s, and late-hit penalties. This game might be very similar to the recent Pitt-Ravens game, where neither team could do anything on offense, but it still flyed over the total..

 

Mendenhall Under 78.5 Rushing Yards.

 

I think Mendenhall should struggle to run the ball. Green Bay’s run defense is actually pretty good with Cullen Jenkins, and they are very quick on defense so they should be able to keep him from having too many long runs. I actually expect them to use Mendenhall is the passing game, especially since they will have to get the ball out quickly, so his receiving over 15 yards might be a good bet.

 

E. Sanders Over 34.5 Passing Yards

 

I think Pitt will rely more on the passing game so I think this is too low for the guy who has been their #2 receiver the past couple of weeks and should be able to get open on Tramondous.

 

H. Miller Over 3 Receptions

 

Again, Pitt will rely on the passing game and Miller is one of the more consistent options.

 

 

I don’t really like any Green Bay player props since their receivers are so unpredictable, but Donald Driver Under and James Jones Over seem like good bets.

 

Half-time bets:

 

I like Fergie to wear pants at +130.. not going into reasoning..

 

I also like “Let’s get it started” as the first song to be played, but can’t find odds on it. Would love to get it at +400 or more.. It’s obviously a very appropriate song to start it off and is one of their better ones.

 

Bol everyone.

Just wanted to give a big shoutout to mac, glyde, johnalz, and all the others who contributed to the threads this season.  These threads were a key part of my wagering this season; they provided tons of great information.

I mostly only wager on football, so I cannot wait for these threads to get going next season!  Good luck to everyone tomorrow (especially those who took the Steelers & the over)!

andarmac99....liking Pitt myself bro. Here's what I came up with to support my play.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Look , we all know about the latest version of this Packers team. They have looked super impressive as of late wearing out opponents like Atlanta and the Bears. Heck, their last 5 games may as well been all playoff games dating back to their final 2 regular season games. They have all been “must wins”. You can’t take anything away from them here and with that being said I’m not going to put too much emphasis on Rodgers and the rest of this Green Bay team having to play under enormous pressure as they have proved they can perform in this type of environment to a point. So, let’s move on to some other points of interest.

If the Packers are going to be able to play the type of physical game the Steelers are going to demand and bring to them, they are going to have to last a full 4 quarters. That is a concern as I have seen them show signs of wearing down late in the past few games and put themselves in dangerous spots where a TD drive from the opposing teams could have tied it back up or won it for the other team. For example, Tramon Williams saved the Packers in Philly when he intercepted Vick’s desperation pass in the end zone, saving a 21-16 victory and last Sunday, Sam Shields picked off a Caleb Hanie pass when the Bears were threatening to tie the score near the end of that game.

In order to have any kind of success against this Pittsburgh defense, Rodgers and his wide receiving core will have to be alert and ready to make last second changes at all times at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a master of figuring out offenses and changing up defensive looks every other play to throw you off of your game. Green Bays best hopes of keeping Rodgers upright will be to spread out five receivers and make some quick passes running some slant routes across the middle. They have had good success in doing this lately. Keeping the Steelers out of their running game will also have to be a major concern for the Green Bay defense. The longer the Packers can stay in their nickel defense, the better off they will be. This will allow cornerback Charles Woodson the freedom to move around and try to make plays all over the field.

Another plus for them is that they are fearless and very speedy on both sides of the ball. And on offense, the Packers have got Mr. Starks off to a good playoff start. In three games, Starks has a playoff-leading 70 carries. He rushed for 74 yards against the Bears, including a 4-yard touchdown that gave the Packers a 14-0 lead in the second quarter. It was Starks’ first touchdown as a pro. Of course, for all of his success this postseason, James Starks hasn’t seen anything like the Steelers’ defense, which gave up an NFL all-time best 63 rushing yards per game in 2010. To go along with Starks, they also have a big time receiver with speed and breakaway skills in Jennings. Jennings had eight catches for the second straight week, giving him 231 receiving yards over the two games.

Just like LeBeau for Pittsburgh, Don Capers for Green Bay also employs a 3-4 defense. You’ll see him constantly bringing pressure with linebacker Clay Mathews. But against the Steelers, they’ll be facing an experienced, more athletic than normal QB in Mr. Roethlisberger. He has the ability to confuse opposing defenses and make them miss by consistently dipping, rolling left and right, pump faking and just make impossible throws while on the run to receivers hitting them in stride converting third and longs to keep drives alive and eat away clock. And although he might not beat you using agility and outright speed, you are more than likely not going to bring him down on first contact as he is like a linebacker/fullback/tight end all rolled into one that is definately still going to get a yard or two after initially being touched!

Big game experience....that’s one thing that will make a difference here and the Steelers have it. I mean most guys on this Pittsburgh team already have a Super Bowl ring and some even have multiple! There are 18 Steelers with two Super Bowl rings from their victories in the 2005 and 2008 seasons. That includes three players who are now or were then on injured reserve. They are Max Starks, Charlie Batch and Greg Warren. The rest with two rings and a shot at three include Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, Hampton, Hoke, Brett Keisel, James Farrior, Troy Polamalu, Taylor, Ben Roethlisberger, James Harrison, Heath Miller, Trai Essex, Chris Kemoeatu, Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden. Even coach Mike Tomlin, in just five years in Pittsburgh, is the only head coach in NFL history to coach in two Super Bowls before age 40. The only two men with Super Bowl experience on the entire Green Bay roster are DB Charles Woodson and DT Ryan Pickett, both of which were on the losing ends of their Super Bowls several years ago. So yes, you can say that the Steelers have been there and done that. They know what to expect and how to handle all that comes with this Super Bowl experience from the media days to the travels for the big game all the way to game experience and the bright lights with the roaring crowds. They will be pumped.

Pittsburgh is 6-1 all time in Super Bowls and has more wins in this game than any other organization. Pittsburgh finished number 1 in the NFL in points allowed with 14½ . They were also number 2 in total defense averaging 276.8 yards per game. The Steelers also ranked number 1 in sacks compiling 48 of them. The biggest difference between the two defenses is Pittsburgh ranked number 1 against the run averaging 62.8 yards per game and the Packers were 18th overall. Pittsburgh is a solid 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 playoff games overall, including a 4-1 against the spread mark when they are the listed as underdogs in the game. Green Bay is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven playoff games when listed as the favorite. There is a very good chance the Steelers will try and grind out a win on the ground here. Rashard Mendenhall will likely get a ton of carries.

Pittsburgh's defense is also excellent in the red zone, on third down, and in turnover differential. Pittsburgh has one of the nastiest groups of linebackers in the NFL and are just simply put, the tougher team. In the win over the Jets, I was very impressed with the Steelers offensive line. They did a good job and was not called out for a single penalty. And that stat has held up for two consecutive weeks. Make all the noise you want about Green Bays opening drives but I’m willing to take my chances with the Steelers and their ability to do the same as they had a 15 play opening drive against the Jets that ate up over 9 minutes of clock and ended with a TD.

In closing, here are a few thoughts. Green Bay has looked impressive down the stretch to get to this point, you can’t argue that. On the other hand, and read into it how you will, Pittsburgh has fought off everyone put in front of them as well to end up in the big game. There is a LOT of public love for the Packers, even the more reason to take the Steelers here. Super Bowl experience, despite what you here a lot of people say, does and will have a lot to do with how this game goes down. Even if it does come down to the last team that has the ball may pull out the win, I’d rather have the points by all means.

Now, I’m sure that a lot of people are going to be swayed towards the Packers after hearing the stat that most probably already know of which is this. Yes, Green Bay has not been down by more than 7 points in a game all season and hasn’t been beat by more than 10 plus points but six times in the past seventy games. But, lets take it back a few more games and look at it. Pittsburgh has only been beaten by 10 plus points just eight times in the past 85 games versus the Packers twelve times by the same spread in the same amount of games. The reason for mentioning this is that I’m just not putting a whole lot of faith in theses type of stats for that reason. I’m just not too impressed with the Packers win over the Bears as they came awfully close to letting a 3rd string QB almost send them into OT. I mean if that 3rd stringer could pass all over them, what do you think Big Ben is going to do? Even if their center, Pouncey doesn’t play or sees limited action, the fact that they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare with the backup goes a long, long way. The Steelers are the better overall team, catching points and have the more experienced head coach and defensive coordinator in this type of game. Go with Pittsburgh here!

Andy, your last few posts have been awesome.  Everything from your Pitt reasonings to your prop bets and why you like them.  Awesome work, dude.  I even liked the kayak analogy I'm already looking forward to next year and dropping into your threads and going back and forth every day leading up to Sundays!  This year was a strange year for me.  It started off amazing, then fell into a 2 month lull of strange ups and downs and enough bad beats to make me question my sanity.  Then it was like a switch was hit the last week of the NFL, and between some nice hits on the late bowl games and the NFL playoffs, I went on a season saving run that literally made my year.  Shamefully, just when I was in the zone, the season came to a halt. This two week wait for the Super Bowl is fucking killing me.  It is a shitty interval that has sucked every drop of anticipation I had for this game out the window. 

Speaking of this game, I think we are gonna see a helluva game between the two teams that should be there.  I guess you can make a case for the Jets to be there representing the AFC, but Pitt is equally worthy, and GB is far and away the best team in the NFC.  This is gonna be a hard fought game, and it is really hard to make too much of a case for either side.  If this was Week 10, this is a game I would most definitely pass on for action, but watch every minute of it for entertainment.  I am backing the Steelers and while I am fairly confident, make no mistake.....this game can go either way.

All of my major points have been pretty much hit already so I'm not gonna go in depth here.  Part of the reason of my wager is because I could not believe where this line opened up at.  In retrospect, the line was done right by the bookies as EVERYONE I know is on the Packers tomorrow.  Regardless, I think Pittsburgh is the better all around team and should be laying the FG. 

-  So the value is there(at least MY perceived value; I can't fathom Pitt being a PK if this game was in Pitt). Right after the AFC championship game, I hit Pitt ML +135 thinking it wasn't gonna get any better.  I am gonna stick with that bet, and I also just locked in Pitt +3(-110) for another unit.

-  I think the experience of Pittsburgh is going to go a long way here.  Lots of guys have been there multiple times for Pitt, while almost every member of GB is in the big dance for the first time.  I can't see how the Packers can't not come out shitting their pants and play tight early in this one.  Somehow all the pressure wound up on their shoulders, while the Steelers are relishing the underdog role.

-  Contrary to what ESPN and most people think and having been spouting the last two weeks, GB does not have this tremendous speed advantage on the field.  I think Pitt can run with them in almost every situation.  I don't believe for a second that Rodgers is the only quarterback on this football field that has big play potential every time he drops back to pass.  In fact, I think Big Ben is more dangerous and has a better chance to make game changing throws than Rodgers.  Nothing against A-Rod as the kid is a beast and I love everything about him, but THIS game here and the matchups involved, I give the edge to Ben in that department.

-  I give the Steelers coaching staff an edge in this game.

-  Pittsburgh is bigger, badder, and meaner than GB and I think that will really show in the trenches tomorrow.  Only one team is gonna have success running the ball. I believe that really quick we are gonna see that GB has no chance to run the ball, and force Rodgers to throw practically every down.  When you have a QB like A-Rod, that isn't necessarily a "bad" thing, but he isn't going against the Eagles or Falcons here, but the extremely talented and well coached Steelers.  Dick LeBeau is gonna have a sick gameplan as usual and I do believe his 3-4 defense is gonna confuse and pressure Rodgers without ever blitzing the house.  He will let Rodgers dink and dunk all day long, but I do not foresee any big game changing plays by Green Bay's passing offense.  I think it is nuts when I see people say that Pitt has a bad secondary and can be thrown on.  Of course teams are gonna get yards on them when forced to throw all game after their run game goes nowhere.  Of course, teams are gonna get yards when LeBeau gives it to you in his zone schemes.

I'm already rambling a lot more than I meant to.  Bottom line is these are two great teams and it should be a close game that goes to the wire.  I'll gladly take the points here, and I hope the game itself is as thrilling as I think it could be.  I have become a huge fan of A-Rod and even though I am against him tomorrow, I hope the man plays a helluva fucking game....in defeat. 

As for props, every year I find some glaringly easy money props and usually do pretty well with them, but I didn't notice anything at all that jumped off the page at me this year.  I never have been a big fan of the props where there are multiple choices because the + money is usually pretty deceiving.  It looks nice when you see everyone +200 or higher in a "which player will score the first touchdown" kind of prop or "X team will score 13-17 points, 18-22 points, 23-27 points," etc, but I always thought they were sucker bets and stayed far from them.  You gotta be a swami to really think you can predict how a game is gonna start and who is gonna score first.  Pure luck.

I decided to pretty much lay off props this year.  Gun to my head, I would lean over for receptions and yards for some of the GB receivers for a couple of reasons.  1.  I think Rodgers will be forced to throw a lot this game.  2. They have absolutely zero threat in the TE(Quarless) making plays so all the targets will pretty much be to WRs. 3.  Guys like Jones and Nelson always get a fair amount of targets.  4.  Pitt's defensive style will allow those guys lots of opportunities to catch small 5-6 yard passes underneath.

The Natural 74. 

Excellent, well written, and intelligent writeup.  I hope to see you around next year, my friend.

Thanks for all the great insight on this game and throughout the year 

Been waiting for this move for ten days. Pinnacle just went to +3 - 110. Still holding at 44.5. I laid down a tease, Pitt +10 and over 37.5 and I'm a GB fan. GLA}

 

 

aren't  2 team teasers 6 points??

Something else interesting about the rushing numbers is Green Bay is 1-4 this season when rushing for under 80 yards in a game. They averaged 100 per game on the season so the less than 80 represents running for 20% less than average. If you go back and look at last season where they rushed for 20% less than average they went 2-4. The year before that they went 0-5. All of those were the three years Aaron Rodgers was the starter.

So they went 3-13 SU in games where they rushed for 20% less than their season average. In all other games they went 27-9. I'm not saying they can't rush for over 80 yards in this game (which is what they will need to get to that plateau) but when you consider that twice in 18 games all year Pittsburgh has given up over 80 yards rushing in a game it seems like a tall order.

This thread needs Coles Notes for all these write ups.

Some great posts on this page for Steelers backers from RJ89, thenatural74, and my boy glyde69 

Glyde - Good point about the Steelers being the tougher team. They just seem like the tough guys here and I think they play with a chip on their shoulder being dogs and everyone picking the Packers. I just caught the end of the ESPN Countdown show and 11 of the 14 talking heads picked Green Bay and almost everyone one of them said Aaron Rodgers as one of the reasons why.

Sad to see the season go buddy. I remember it didn't seem that long ago we were talking futures. I ended up 5-3 on the totals but not so hot on the division/Super Bowl futures at 1-4, never really liked those types of bets and will lay off next year and just stick with the totals. I had Dallas 10-1 to win the Super Bowl.


I doubled my Pittsburgh +3 & ML +140 bets. Thought I would put it all on the ML but +3 -110 seemed like a little bit of insurance.



Good luck tonight everyone.

Glyde, Andy   Hopefully we take the cash today.....Haven't been around the forums much lately to keep up on this thread, the best thread on covers hands down ....Been spending some time at the shroomery forums

Thanks for the love man.  Mac and Glyde really got these threads going strong early in the year.  I just threw in my 2 pennies.  I'm looking forward to next year as well.  BOL to ya today bro

Bruuuuce, what was the agreement on your avatar?  How much longer are you suffering with Sancheeze?