Steelers +2.5  

Who you talking about?

He said vs. teams at or above .500.  Read it again. The 49ers were a crap team this year.  He eliminated crap games from the study.

The Packers are just 3-4 (ironically) SU and ATS since 2008 vs. 3-4 defenses at or above .500 w/ Aaron Rodgers starting. This season alone, they are 1-3 SU, losing to Washington, Miami and New England (Matt Flynn played this game and it is removed from the 3-4 record since 2008), and beating the Jets 9-0. Rodgers averaged a QB rating of 84. The Packers averaged 21 points for and 20 points against in these games.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have played 18 games in the same parameters (since 2008, vs. 3-4 defenses with a record at or above .500) and are 16-2 SU and 12-6 in these games w/ Big Ben starting. Roethlisburger averaged a QB rating of 91. The Steelers averaged 25 points for and 19 points against in these games.  Their only losses were this year to NE and to the Jets (without Polamalu, during the regular season).

Have you not read this thread?  There's plenty of info from numerous posters on why they are choosing a side.  It's ironic, I haven't seen you post any picks here, much less any relevant information.  Why don't you follow your own advice and "try to be objective"  Smh

I'm not totally sure how he will play. He hasn't looked the same the last two weeks but the Steelers have played him deep in the postseason, he has been running good from what I have seen (he even missed a couple of tackles because he over ran the ball carriers). The time off will definetely help him IMO if he still isn't 100%. Even if he isn't 100% he is still one of the better safeties in the game and will no doubt be a major threat on the field.

Sorry to here about Vegas, John.

I was looking at this Nelson prop as well. Trouble is the juice is up to -135 which may be a tough too rich for me. I went Driver OVER instead (albeit at 4).

Tough not to think each of those guys gets a carry but it would be tough for me to lay -265 on a prop like this. But if you feel there is value in the price then fire.

Were they shut down or did they just played very conservative?

I think it may take Rodgers a while to adjust to the 3-4 again and it may also take a while for the Packers offense to get back in rhythm as so often happens with these rhythm faster paced offenses after two weeks off. Can't rule out the "feeling out" factor either which is why I took the First quarter 7:30 bet and I also fired on Pittsburgh 1st Quarter ML +125.

Not sure what you are referring to here. I'm pro-Pittsburgh in this game but there has been lots of talk about the Packers and how good they are in this thread. Heck, if you want to know my opinion of the Packers just look at my threads the last 5 weeks as I've been on them every game.

Again, I'm sure I've said it in this thread already but I have really respected what the Packers have done this year. They overcame boatloads of injuries and still rallied down the stretch to make the playoffs. They have a great QB, solid pass game, great defense, what else is left to say?

I said 6 weeks ago I would ride Green Bay until this point, however when they got to the big game I would jump clear off the bandwagon and that is exactly what I have done. I've thought for a while the best teams in the league were New England, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay in that order. If Green Bay was going up against either NE or PIT in this game I would be on the other side. Why? The replacement players. Make no mistake they have played great but for lack of a better analogy I see this Green Bay team like a kayaker going down a dangerous river in his shiny new and top of the line kayak. That is how Green Bay started the year, they were good, sexy and expected to go far. What happened was as they ventured down the river they encountered tough waves and rocks (injuries) which bashed and battered the kayak causing leaks. However they pulled up on shore and patched up the kayak as best as they could (replacements) and then regrouped and continued down the river. The patches seemed to be working and the kayak was just like new as they were now cruising down the river although through some softer spots. However there is a very turbulent section coming up with rapids, rocks, etc and the question is do you believe the patches will hold through this section or will they finally crack and give way? I say the latter. The kayaker may have made it down the river this far but he would be much better served with his regular top of the line unbattered kayak and not the one which is full of patches. This isn't the best Green Bay team that they are capable of throwing out there. I think just like patches fail, the Packers will crack in this one and the injuries finally catch up with them.

I say the Packers cruised through a soft section of river earlier because they did face teams in the playoffs that were great matchups for them (offensively) and they exposed those weaknesses. The Eagles were the worst red zone defense in NFL history, the Pack went a perfect 3-3 in the red zone against them. The Falcons were bottom 5 in yards per play in the whole league, a fraud waiting to be lit up and they were as Green Bay moved it all over them. The Bears were another major fraud on defense as they had been routinely chew up and spit out against any team with any soft of offense (see Post #27). I don't see any weaknesses like those frauds had when I look at the Steelers defense. A lot of people think Green Bay will spread em out and Rodgers will go to work, which is easier said than done. I don't see them having much success running the ball A. Because Pittsburgh's run defense is great and B. Because Starks really hasn't been that impressive except for the Eagles games, some very pedestrian YPC averages the last two weeks against run defenses not as good as Pittsburgh. Call me crazy but I think the Ryan Grant injury will haunt them. I also think the Jermicheal Finley injury will catch up with them. Quarless stinks, he catches 1 or two passes a game. The Packers have lost the TE as a threat in their offense. When you consider Green Bay having little to no success running and little to no production out of the TE position this offense suddenly becomes a hell of a lot less dynamic.

It's tough to make it all the way and win it all without your full compliment of players. So often the team that wins the Super Bowl is the one that avoided the injury bug and stayed healthy all season. Look at recent Super Bowl Champs, they have been pretty healthy for the most part. The 05 Steelers and 06 Colts lost some key contributors during the regular season but they returned for the playoffs, something which the Packers players will not do. Really the only major players that come to mind that were replacements for key guys who played big roles in the last 7-8 Super Bowls (correct me if I'm wrong) were Asante Samuel and Randall Gay starting in the Super Bowl against the Eagles.

Vegas, Smegas.

I didn't go too overboard on the props this year. Most of them are squarish looking over but I fired on these as well:

Brandon Jackson OVER 1.5 receptions -115

In 12 games this year against teams that allow less than 4.2 YPC (top half of the league) Jackson has had 9 games where he's caught two or more passes and he was targeted at least two times in two of three where he didn't catch two or more passes. He is their screen guy and if Green Bay can't run it like I expect I think they were throw a few to Jackson to open up the line of scrimmage.


Clay Matthews OVER 4.5 tackles (solo + assist) +140

Matthews has gone over this number 8 times in 18 games this year, not a great % but enough to win at this price. The key here for me is that Matthews primarily plays on the left side of the defense (he goes against the right side of the offense) and Pittsburgh has shown that they are most comfortable running to their right (at Matthews side). Rashard Mendenhall has run 46% of the time to the right side this season which is a large % compared to the 54% middle and left combined. When you also consider sacks count as tackles I think this is an outstanding prop.


James Harrison OVER 0.5 sacks -119

I think he's going to eat Chad Clifton up. He will dip under Clifton all night as the old guy won't be able to be quick enough to stay with Harrison. I also kind of think Harrison plays possessed in this one and issues a big FUCK YOU to Roger Goodell.


Donald Driver OVER 4 receptions +108

Solid value here IMO. The Pack like going outside when they spread it with Jennings, Nelson, and Jones. Without a TE threat for GB I think there will be room in the middle of the field for Driver. He's waited his whole career for this game, I think he plays well.


Heath Miller OVER 38.5 receiving yards -125

Again, I hilighted earlier in this thread that the Steelers have tagetted the TE just as much as anyone else since the Oakland game. In full games Miller has played since that time he has gone Over this total 4 of 6 times and one of the Unders was by one yard.


Ben Roethlisberger +41.5 gross pass yards against Rodgers -125

This is too much IMO. There is a prevailed notion out there that the Packers will have to pass every down to win. They may not have much success running the ball but they have shown all season that they will continue to run it to set up the pass so I think the run/pass ratio won't be nearly as lopsided as many are expecting. In games both guys started and finished this year Rodgers averaged 274 yards at 8.3 per attempt while Big Ben was 254 at 8.2, not a huge difference.


Pittsburgh -7.5 +355

A. I talked about how the "Top 5 defenses in postseason" trend of the past has actually resulted in a lot of blowouts. B. It seems every person on this planet thinks this will be a close game and well we know how that usually works out. The last 4 smallest Super Bowl lines (-3) have resulted in 4 double digit wins with the average margin being 24.5 points one way or the other. Chances are good someone will win big, I'm on Pittsburgh so I will take a shot that it will them.

I made a regular play on Pittsburgh 1st Q ML +125.


Looking at a few more props:

Aaron Rodgers yards Under, Greg Jennings yards Under, and Will any team score 3 straight unanswered YES but will wait to see where those line move.


Regular plays:

Pittsburgh +3(-114) & ML +140

Pittsburgh 1st Q ML +125


The props are all much smaller.

I have a friend who just had his analysis published in the NY Times...  I may have to go with the Steelers too!  

Which team will win Super Bowl XLV?

47%

Pittsburgh Steelers

53%

Green Bay Packers

Total Votes: 139318

Troy Polamalu Superman (Flying) Tackle! (Steelers vs Titans)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DyzASDVpwU&feature=player_embedded

Hey man Vegas is Vegas.  I have fun even if I walk away a loser.  I hear ya about the Nelson prop.  I snagged it at the Venetian book bc everywhere else I looked the vig was outrageous.  The Hilton had 25 pages of props for the big game.  25 pages!!!  Astronomical to me.  I wanted that Clay Matthews prop you took, but it was juiced high so I stayed away.  Truthfully, I would have hammered every prop you took except the Big Ben +41.5 if I could have gotten the value you did.  I found that a lot of the books in Vegas have juiced the props much more than most online books and I'm pretty tired of betting online to be honest.  I need to find a good local!  BOL to ya Mac!  I'll be following your props on Sunday and rooting for ya

I see the book being right on with these lines. GB 24 PITT 21.  A push on the spread and the public will bet O/U to 45, another push. So why bother betting? I'll probably just be playin props, my best prop pick is NO cheerleaders at -180.

BOL bud

Honest to God truth right there.

andy,

On a 1-10 grading for this thread.....I give it an 11!.  Great thoughts and ideas back and forth.  Very little hate, even smaller amount of moron takes.

Thanks for a GREAT thread.  BOL with Pitt

Why is covers still showing green bay -2.5  o/u 44.5 when the obvious line is green bay -3  o/u 45  what da ..... been trusting you for 3 years -----get off  the vegas party and get off your ass and show us the real line !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow line is down to Pit +3 -110 on Pinny...wondering why so much movement when there's equal action?

I'm not so sure there is equal action anymore. As we get closer to game time it seems like more people like the Packers. The Sportsnation poll that was 54% Packers last week is now pushing 60% with over 420,000 votes cast.

I've conducted a professional scietific study the last few days (ok, not really) quizzing everyone I know that remotely follows sports and even many I don't as to they like and I'd say it was about 60% Green Bay. I lot of people like Aaron Rodgers, while Big Ben is looked down upon and rooted against. What was that poll earlier in the week? He's Top 3 least liked players in the NFL?

Interesting thing on ESPN.com as well with all their "experts/personalities" posting who they think will win the game. Final tally was Packers 47 and Steelers 14.  

I know one thing, instead of betting any more props I will be dumping that money and then some on the Steelers ML.

Keep rising, baby!

One of the dangers of focusing on one game and having two weeks to pick it apart is you over analyze the game. The truth is for myself this is shaping up a lot like the situation leading up to last year's Super Bowl. Last year I thought I would be on the Saints even before the game and when the line did come out I took them because I thought it was just too high of a number between two evenly matched teams. But as the week progressed I really got the feeling that the Saints wouldn't just cover but would also win outright. Those feelings led me to fire a big chunk on the Saints points and ML. This year is shaping up the same, I thought I would be on Pittsburgh before the line came out and when I saw the numbers that they threw out there I had to fire because it was too high of a price. However as the two weeks have unfolded my gut is now screaming to make a Saints sized wager on the Steelers and I think I will.

The two weeks provides an opportunity to over analyze the game and possibly leads you to want to believe something bad enough that you convince yourself it will happen and maybe I've done that, I'm not sure, perhaps an objective reader would be able to tell. I know one thing and that is this year I have talked myself out of or gotten a weaker feel on some bets as the week has gone on more so than talked myself into them. But I also feel I have looked at the Packers hard and have a good feel for them, hell I've been preaching their awesomeness the last 5 weeks! So it certainly isn't looking at things from solely a Pittsburgh point of view.

I've watched some of the NFL Films stuff of these teams the last couple days where the players are miked up and with the Steelers it is very apparent that Tomlin and Big Ben are masterful leaders. These guys command respect, don't get rattled, and are always taking charge. But more importantly the players buy them and follow them every step of the way I'm not saying that doesn't exist with the Packers but that type of leadership just doesn't come off the way it does with Pittsburgh. The Woodson moment was nice after the Bears game but the Packers have admitted that they have had a revolving door of players appointed "leader" for a week throughout the season. No one has really taken charge like they have with the Steelers.

What I'm trying to say here is I believe the Steelers have the intangibles. They have great leadership, experience is in their corner, and for once they aren't the sexy public type team. That team is the Packers with the hot, new, young QB and the team that is built to win for a long while. They Steelers are seen as older, and also a dirty team not just because of the Roethlisberger allegations but because of the way they play. Pittsburgh was the poster boy for everything the NFL didn't want this year, they were physical, played hard, and hit hard. No question they felt picked on by the front offices in NY and they have said so all year. The Steelers are the bad guys here. I believe they will embrace that role and play with a chip on their shoulders just like they way they have played as underdogs which I mentioned way back in a post earlier in this thread.

It was also interesting to me how both teams spent the week. The Steelers were widely reported to have gone out and partied it up while the Packers played the "good guy" role and went out for dinner and such but also went back to the hotel afterward to watch film as Aaron Rodgers said. It was reported that some players had to be settled down at the first two Green Bay practices because they were overanxious. While the Steelers practices were reported to be down to earth and very crisp. Big Ben was even described as "scalding hot' late in the week. One team loose and the other a little nervous? Who knows, but it will be interesting to see if this shows up on Sunday.

One more interesting point:

Over the last 10 postseasons the team that has had more rushing yards has gone 82-26 SU (one game had equal rushing yards). That's 76% of the time you rush for more yards you win. Even if the Packers run it a lot on first down like they have done in the past even when they have gotten nothing out it, does anyone really see them having more rushing yards than the Steelers?

Sure some of the numbers are due to winning teams running the ball more to run out the clock but there has to be something to it doesn't there?

How often do one dimensional teams win the Super Bowl? Maybe the Packers come out and do have success running it but I just don't see it. This is one of the best run defenses in NFL history. Pittsburgh on the other hand can line up and pound it, they have the better running back and are going against a lot weaker run defense. Pittsburgh can also spread it out and throw in 5 receiver sets as they have shown over the second half of the season. In this game I believe the Steelers have will have balance while I can't say the same about Green Bay.