.. Hear alot about Pack WR's and we should but many are still sleeping on these two.. Small stats in a limited time but huge catches and speed to burn for both..
I just got an email from someone who saw my question in this thread regarding Rodgers and 3-4 defenses, and he threw me some good stats I thought I would share.
Info is from Sharp from SHARPFOOTBALLANALYSIS.COM: He is truly one of the better cappers around and always has really good insight.
Teams against 3-4 defenses:
In the Super Bowl, both teams run 3-4 defenses which operate in a similar style and uses similar pressure concepts. The obvious question is, which QB and team has historically performed the best against 3-4 defenses. And on this point, the gap between the two teams is monumental:
The AFC has 9 teams that run a 3-4, whereas the NFC has just 5. The Steelers play in the AFC North, and two other teams run a 3-4 (Baltimore and Cleveland). Whereas the Packers play in the NFC North, and are the only team to run a 3-4 (Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago run 4-3 defenses). Thus, the Steelers regularly face 3-4 defenses, either in divisional or conference play.
Let's begin the examination in 2008, when Aaron Rodgers took over as a starter, and limit the games we consider to Steelers or Packers games vs. teams who run a 3-4 who have at least a .500 record. This point is valid (and will be discussed in the footnote) as it really is insignificant if the Packers beat a 1-7 Dallas team this year or the Steelers beat a 4-12 Browns team in 2008.
The Packers are just 3-4 (ironically) SU and ATS since 2008 vs. 3-4 defenses at or above .500 w/ Aaron Rodgers starting. This season alone, they are 1-3 SU, losing to Washington, Miami and New England (Matt Flynn played this game and it is removed from the 3-4 record since 2008), and beating the Jets 9-0. Rodgers averaged a QB rating of 84. The Packers averaged 21 points for and 20 points against in these games.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have played 18 games in the same parameters (since 2008, vs. 3-4 defenses with a record at or above .500) and are 16-2 SU and 12-6 in these games w/ Big Ben starting. Roethlisburger averaged a QB rating of 91. The Steelers averaged 25 points for and 19 points against in these games. Their only losses were this year to NE and to the Jets (without Polamalu, during the regular season).
Thus it appears in terms of either :
• games played vs. 3-4 defenses with winning records (7 vs 18),
• success in those games (3-4 SU vs 16-2 SU),
• QB performance vs. those defenses (84 rtg vs 91 rtg), and
• points scored (21 vs 25)
• margin of victory (1 vs 6)
the Packers are at a disadvantage to the Steelers when it comes to this key aspect of the game.
Footnote: It can also be added to complete the study that Aaron Rodgers/Green Bay played 4 very bad teams with 3-4 defenses since 2008 and Big Ben/Steelers played 9 very bad teams w/ 3-4 defenses. Both GB and Pit did extremely well vs. these losing teams, and both QBs had tremendous days vs. these teams. So removing these games is justified and makes logical sense because the Super Bowl is not a game played against sub-.500 competition. Additionally, the Steelers faced over twice as many of these bad teams, adding further to the experience edge in their favor.
Just for the record, teams who've won a prior SB within 3 years against teams with a group of players in their very first SB together, the prior SB winning teams are just 1-8 ATS in the past 17 years since the free agency period began.
Including last season with the Colts winning the SB 3 years prior and the Saints in the 1st SB with their group of players, and the first time team won, and the Steelers in 2009 SB when they won the SB 3 years prior but failed to cover against Zona a first time SB team.
There's no evidence that winning a prior SB helps teams cover the spread .
I'm just saying........................................
.. Hear alot about Pack WR's and we should but many are still sleeping on these two.. Small stats in a limited time but huge catches and speed to burn for both..
The Packers are just 3-4 (ironically) SU and ATS since 2008 vs. 3-4 defenses at or above .500 w/ Aaron Rodgers starting. This season alone, they are 1-3 SU, losing to Washington, Miami and New England (Matt Flynn played this game and it is removed from the 3-4 record since 2008), and beating the Jets 9-0. Rodgers averaged a QB rating of 84. The Packers averaged 21 points for and 20 points against in these games.
Do the 49ers not count?
Hammered the Packers. All these write ups look good and there are a lot of great information in them. There is just something in my head that is screaming Packers. Rogers has been on fire as of late and just looks unstoppable. The Bears game really sold me. Packers defense has been pretty sick as well. I can see their rush penetrating the Steelers OLine like swiss cheese. Just seems like this is the Packers season.
Packers -2.5 for 4 units
1 unit prop bet that my boy Clay Matthews wins MVP.
Rough weekend in Sin City without football to offset my terrible table game playing. Always a good time though. Only one ticket for me on the big game. I went back and forth with a side to take, but couldn't nut up and pull the trigger on either so I took a prop.
J. Nelson O 3 receptions -120
The Pack likes to use this kid and I can't imagine not seeing the ball headed in his direction at least 5 times in this game. The key will be, does he catch them
. Almost fired on your no score in the first 7:30 Mac, but I could see a quick touchdown from either side to open this game so can't do that one, but BOL to ya. Not that it matters bc I'm not playing a side, but with a gun to my head I'd be playing Pitt with the points and the under. BOL fellas. 5 days till the big one
I know you asked for Andy's thoughts, but I like this prop NE. That juice is atrocious though! I thought my prop was for -3, but after checking the ticket it's actually -2.5 which makes me feel that much better about it. GL to ya
The two that stick out to me are the GB penalty yards and the GB total rushing yards. I agree with you that we will most likely see more penalites against GB and getting points with that prop makes it look even better. Like you, I can't imagine Rodgers not taking off a few times during this game. You have to figure he'll be scrambling for the first a couple of times. I just wonder how much running GB will be doing if they get stuffed on the run numerous times?
The Hines Ward prop could go either way imo. He seems to not be Ben's go to guy as much as some of the other receivers, but he's still solid and could pull down a few short passes to bust that prop.
The Crosby prop has great odds. If I was going to play that one it would be for small bc I think that one is a coin flip also. The guy could end up kicking 5 Fgs or we could only see him 2 times. I'd just rather not sign up for that one.
Pittsburgh is 52% on converting 3rd down this postseason. They had 7 3rd down conversions against Bmore and 6 against the Jets. They were 43% during the regular season converting 3rd down. To me, this is a nailbiter of a prop. I'd feel more comfortable betting some of the others you listed before this one, but don't let me dissuade you.
Your original prop you posted looks awesome to me, but I can't bet on -265 odds. The payout just isn't good enough to me for what I'd have to lay, but if you have the roll and don't mind risking a little more, this one looks nice.
Let us know what you decide NE. Any plays on a side or total for this game?
Hammered the Packers. All these write ups look good and there are a lot of great information in them. There is just something in my head that is screaming Packers. Rogers has been on fire as of late and just looks unstoppable. The Bears game really sold me. Packers defense has been pretty sick as well. I can see their rush penetrating the Steelers OLine like swiss cheese. Just seems like this is the Packers season.
Packers -2.5 for 4 units
1 unit prop bet that my boy Clay Matthews wins MVP.
I rewatched GB CHI in the 2nd half A.Rogers & co.WERE SHUT FUCKING DOWN when they desperately needed points first downs. GB wont be running the ball and they need to be effective passing for at least 3 qrt.s GB will have to keep RB and TE in for protection just as they had to VS CHI PIT D will do enough.
Andarmac I read a write up on Bleacher reports last week, I too thought this was very significant. The QB's "keys" to reading the coverage is definitely different 3-4 vs 4-3 and its been awhile since GB has played against the 3-4. however GB has 2 weeks to prepare, this bit of info, plus GB stymied by CHI 2nd half,and PIT being experienced in play-offs SB's for years now vs GB 3 weeks tells me to take PIT.
I liked that tease also, but after that New England debacle I'm done with teasers for the year. I think you took a hard hit with me on that NE game if I remember correctly? That was a 
Never knew 5dimes allowed parlays of props. That's awesome!!! Almost makes me want to open a 5dimes account
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