A power rating system reverse engineered from the supposedly sharpest line in sports was only helpful in certain situations, until I looked at why.
A system that works stops working upon becoming known, forever, for everyone except the book. Is there anyone on the planet over the age of 5 who didn't hear last year that Baltimore covers in the preseason? It will be interesting to see how that goes this year.
A power rating system reverse engineered from the supposedly sharpest line in sports was only helpful in certain situations, until I looked at why.
A system that works stops working upon becoming known, forever, for everyone except the book. Is there anyone on the planet over the age of 5 who didn't hear last year that Baltimore covers in the preseason? It will be interesting to see how that goes this year.
I guess if u are just posting your base results off 2021 results then the list is decent. But you can already tweak a few teams based on qb change. Only one I wouldn't touch is browns cause we don't kno when Watson plays
I'm not planning to tweak. After 3-4 matches I use this model with the underlying stats/metrics to get the spreads per team (as an indicator).
The posted outcomes are based on the same model but then with the underlying stats/metrices for the whole regular season. Maybe I will work out the outcomes of my model for only the last 3-4 matches of the regular (!) season 2021. See how that unfolds :) I expect it to be more acurate/actual.
I guess if u are just posting your base results off 2021 results then the list is decent. But you can already tweak a few teams based on qb change. Only one I wouldn't touch is browns cause we don't kno when Watson plays
I'm not planning to tweak. After 3-4 matches I use this model with the underlying stats/metrics to get the spreads per team (as an indicator).
The posted outcomes are based on the same model but then with the underlying stats/metrices for the whole regular season. Maybe I will work out the outcomes of my model for only the last 3-4 matches of the regular (!) season 2021. See how that unfolds :) I expect it to be more acurate/actual.
@Charon84 I'd strongly recommend tweaking at keast weekly for match ups , injuries and other required adjustments
That is the subjective part before betting...the model is just the indicator. If Lions is +3 in my model but bookmaker gives +7 then I'll go to subjective part and look at injuries, weather, etc.
@Charon84 I'd strongly recommend tweaking at keast weekly for match ups , injuries and other required adjustments
That is the subjective part before betting...the model is just the indicator. If Lions is +3 in my model but bookmaker gives +7 then I'll go to subjective part and look at injuries, weather, etc.
Maybe I will work out the outcomes of my model for only the last 3-4 matches of the regular (!) season 2021. See how that unfolds :) I expect it to be more acurate/actual.
Don't know what to think about this one...last 3 matches regular season 2021:
Maybe I will work out the outcomes of my model for only the last 3-4 matches of the regular (!) season 2021. See how that unfolds :) I expect it to be more acurate/actual.
Don't know what to think about this one...last 3 matches regular season 2021:
Tampa Bay
6,96
Buffalo
6,94
Kansas City
5,91
Dallas
5,17
LA Rams
3,99
Green Bay
3,90
San Francisco
3,86
Seattle
3,60
Tennessee
3,58
New England
3,53
Cincinnati
1,58
LA Chargers
1,41
Indianapolis
1,33
Arizona
0,61
Las Vegas
0,28
New Orleans
0,19
Minnesota
0,10
Chicago
0,05
Pittsburgh
-0,16
Miami
-0,70
Philadelphia
-1,00
Cleveland
-1,28
Denver
-2,34
NY Jets
-2,96
Baltimore
-2,97
Houston
-3,03
Atlanta
-3,22
Washington
-3,51
Detroit
-4,49
Jacksonville
-6,89
Carolina
-9,05
NY Giants
-11,47
Tampa Bay
6,96
Buffalo
6,94
Kansas City
5,91
Dallas
5,17
LA Rams
3,99
Green Bay
3,90
San Francisco
3,86
Seattle
3,60
Tennessee
3,58
New England
3,53
Cincinnati
1,58
LA Chargers
1,41
Indianapolis
1,33
Arizona
0,61
Las Vegas
0,28
New Orleans
0,19
Minnesota
0,10
Chicago
0,05
Pittsburgh
-0,16
Miami
-0,70
Philadelphia
-1,00
Cleveland
-1,28
Denver
-2,34
NY Jets
-2,96
Baltimore
-2,97
Houston
-3,03
Atlanta
-3,22
Washington
-3,51
Detroit
-4,49
Jacksonville
-6,89
Carolina
-9,05
NY Giants
-11,47
Does an ELO-model account (enough) for recent performances?
Let's say the ELO model gives KC +8 on neutral field against average team and KC loses 3 in a row...how much does the point spread drop? I guess it's still +6.5 or something like that, but is that fair?
Does an ELO-model account (enough) for recent performances?
Let's say the ELO model gives KC +8 on neutral field against average team and KC loses 3 in a row...how much does the point spread drop? I guess it's still +6.5 or something like that, but is that fair?
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