I will be adding to the Bengals play, but waiting for information about Mahommes to be announced. Probably taking a risk that they will say he's playing, so I can get a better line, and also put in a ML bet. I suspect that they will rule him out, and I'll lose that value, but I'll still be adding at least 1 unit, possibly 2.
I will be adding to the Bengals play, but waiting for information about Mahommes to be announced. Probably taking a risk that they will say he's playing, so I can get a better line, and also put in a ML bet. I suspect that they will rule him out, and I'll lose that value, but I'll still be adding at least 1 unit, possibly 2.
Why do you think they will rule him out? Andy has already said he is playing and that the injury isn’t worse than his 2019. The MRI came back clear, that was the big worry, potential ligament damage that he could then injure worse so they’d keep him out.
Why do you think they will rule him out? Andy has already said he is playing and that the injury isn’t worse than his 2019. The MRI came back clear, that was the big worry, potential ligament damage that he could then injure worse so they’d keep him out.
Agree, usually a good predictor. 49ers had the #1 defense... Eagles #2 or #3, I think. I'd say when you get #1 vs. #2, you're gonna have to look at the offense, too. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses. This game is tough to call... hence the 1* play.
Agree, usually a good predictor. 49ers had the #1 defense... Eagles #2 or #3, I think. I'd say when you get #1 vs. #2, you're gonna have to look at the offense, too. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses. This game is tough to call... hence the 1* play.
@Duderonomy Why do you think they will rule him out?Andy has already said he is playing
I didn't say I think they WILL rule him out, but I think they should, if they want any shot at winning a Super Bowl. I suspect all week they will claim he's going to TRY to play, but come gametime, it's gonna either be (a) he's out, or (b) he starts the game but doesn't play more than 1 or 2 series. I don't have a crystal ball, so we'll see.
Both of these points are moot, because my ratings have the Bengals as a favorite based on complete ignorance of any injury to Mahommes (i.e., those ratings are pretending he didn't even get hurt last week). So I have a very small amount of value if Mahommes DOES play and it literally 100% effective. And I have major value if he isn't.
@Duderonomy Why do you think they will rule him out?Andy has already said he is playing
I didn't say I think they WILL rule him out, but I think they should, if they want any shot at winning a Super Bowl. I suspect all week they will claim he's going to TRY to play, but come gametime, it's gonna either be (a) he's out, or (b) he starts the game but doesn't play more than 1 or 2 series. I don't have a crystal ball, so we'll see.
Both of these points are moot, because my ratings have the Bengals as a favorite based on complete ignorance of any injury to Mahommes (i.e., those ratings are pretending he didn't even get hurt last week). So I have a very small amount of value if Mahommes DOES play and it literally 100% effective. And I have major value if he isn't.
(1) If I had no money on these games, I would very badly want the Chiefs and Eagles to win. I would love to see those two teams in the Super Bowl, as a fan... and it will make me throw up to see the Bengals and 49ers in the Super Bowl. So there is definitely no bias entering into my plays.
(2) To answer the question of why I think Mahommes shouldn't play. A high ankle sprain is a sprain to the ligament above the ankle bone, as opposed to the smaller ligament below it. That ligament is what holds your tibia and fibula together, and connects them to your ankle. When it is weakened, all of those connections become weakened and destabilized. Aside from the incredible pain and swelling that is caused by that injury, it has the potential to lead to further more serious injury. If you play on a normal ankle sprain, the main threat is just making that ankle sprain worse, and take longer to heal. If you play on a high ankle sprain, you have the potential to cause a far more serious injury, such as ankle dislocation, a broken ankle, or even a broken leg.
I haven't seen Mahommes MRI... but I did see the injury, and there's no doubt he damaged that ligament in some way. How severe? Don't know... but I'd roll the dice that you aren't going to see the real Patrick Mahommes this weekend, and I think the Chiefs would be smart to let him heal up, and hope their veteran backup can get them a win, at home, to put them in the Super Bowl with an almost fully recovered Mahommes.
Even 3 weeks isn't enough to heal that injury completely... 4 weeks is bare minimum, and more like 5-6. But at 3 weeks the risk of making it a lot worse is almost gone, especially with a good brace on it.
(1) If I had no money on these games, I would very badly want the Chiefs and Eagles to win. I would love to see those two teams in the Super Bowl, as a fan... and it will make me throw up to see the Bengals and 49ers in the Super Bowl. So there is definitely no bias entering into my plays.
(2) To answer the question of why I think Mahommes shouldn't play. A high ankle sprain is a sprain to the ligament above the ankle bone, as opposed to the smaller ligament below it. That ligament is what holds your tibia and fibula together, and connects them to your ankle. When it is weakened, all of those connections become weakened and destabilized. Aside from the incredible pain and swelling that is caused by that injury, it has the potential to lead to further more serious injury. If you play on a normal ankle sprain, the main threat is just making that ankle sprain worse, and take longer to heal. If you play on a high ankle sprain, you have the potential to cause a far more serious injury, such as ankle dislocation, a broken ankle, or even a broken leg.
I haven't seen Mahommes MRI... but I did see the injury, and there's no doubt he damaged that ligament in some way. How severe? Don't know... but I'd roll the dice that you aren't going to see the real Patrick Mahommes this weekend, and I think the Chiefs would be smart to let him heal up, and hope their veteran backup can get them a win, at home, to put them in the Super Bowl with an almost fully recovered Mahommes.
Even 3 weeks isn't enough to heal that injury completely... 4 weeks is bare minimum, and more like 5-6. But at 3 weeks the risk of making it a lot worse is almost gone, especially with a good brace on it.
still tghink problem is rookie qb going into philly...but if philly play shite for a quarter crowd will turn...
just want 9ers cincin final...cause the last two have been classics...montanas drive still devatably the best..take out toad face heartbreaking pidgeone toed ugly fuk face probably is...
still tghink problem is rookie qb going into philly...but if philly play shite for a quarter crowd will turn...
just want 9ers cincin final...cause the last two have been classics...montanas drive still devatably the best..take out toad face heartbreaking pidgeone toed ugly fuk face probably is...
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: @Duderonomy Why do you think they will rule him out? Andy has already said he is playing I didn't say I think they WILL rule him out, but I think they should, if they want any shot at winning a Super Bowl. I suspect all week they will claim he's going to TRY to play, but come gametime, it's gonna either be (a) he's out, or (b) he starts the game but doesn't play more than 1 or 2 series. I don't have a crystal ball, so we'll see. No he didn't! https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35511558/chiefs-andy-reid-qb-patrick-mahomes-ankle-doing-ok Both of these points are moot, because my ratings have the Bengals as a favorite based on complete ignorance of any injury to Mahommes (i.e., those ratings are pretending he didn't even get hurt last week). So I have a very small amount of value if Mahommes DOES play and it literally 100% effective. And I have major value if he isn't.
Yes....moot point now as he got in a full practice yesterday and is not listed on the injury report
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: @Duderonomy Why do you think they will rule him out? Andy has already said he is playing I didn't say I think they WILL rule him out, but I think they should, if they want any shot at winning a Super Bowl. I suspect all week they will claim he's going to TRY to play, but come gametime, it's gonna either be (a) he's out, or (b) he starts the game but doesn't play more than 1 or 2 series. I don't have a crystal ball, so we'll see. No he didn't! https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35511558/chiefs-andy-reid-qb-patrick-mahomes-ankle-doing-ok Both of these points are moot, because my ratings have the Bengals as a favorite based on complete ignorance of any injury to Mahommes (i.e., those ratings are pretending he didn't even get hurt last week). So I have a very small amount of value if Mahommes DOES play and it literally 100% effective. And I have major value if he isn't.
Yes....moot point now as he got in a full practice yesterday and is not listed on the injury report
Yes....moot point now as he got in a full practice yesterday and is not listed on the injury report
Obviously it's still a moot point, because the sportsbooks would have KC (-3.5) (at least) on this game if they were confident that he was not dealing with any injury.
There's a reason about half of the books in Vegas have had this game off the board for the past day, while the other half are still carrying lines of Cincy (-0.5). That is not a reflection of their confidence that Mahommes isn't injured.
Yes....moot point now as he got in a full practice yesterday and is not listed on the injury report
Obviously it's still a moot point, because the sportsbooks would have KC (-3.5) (at least) on this game if they were confident that he was not dealing with any injury.
There's a reason about half of the books in Vegas have had this game off the board for the past day, while the other half are still carrying lines of Cincy (-0.5). That is not a reflection of their confidence that Mahommes isn't injured.
Yes, we all know he is injured. The books know that. There is no "special" formula they are using. Risk management, liability is all over the place I'm sure with those that got hit back on the plus side with KC money. Not trying to argue your Cincinnati position, no one knows what Mahomes is going to look like until that first drive come Sunday. This game has live in game wager written all over it for me.
Yes, we all know he is injured. The books know that. There is no "special" formula they are using. Risk management, liability is all over the place I'm sure with those that got hit back on the plus side with KC money. Not trying to argue your Cincinnati position, no one knows what Mahomes is going to look like until that first drive come Sunday. This game has live in game wager written all over it for me.
@Duderonomy I'm on the Bengals and wanna pull the trigger on SF, but can't quite yet. That said I do think Cinci/SF would be a great matchup - unlike the last time they met in the SB in 1982. At the time neither team had any history of winning and the matchup seemed flukey, to me at least. That was Montana's first full year as a starter (they used to call him "Joe Cool") and before the Niners went on their run in the 80s and early 90s.
But the current editions of these teams, with a Joe Cool on the other side, leading a band of arrogant, cocky bruisers against these rowdy ass-kickin' Niners, come on man, how can you not want to see that?
@Duderonomy I'm on the Bengals and wanna pull the trigger on SF, but can't quite yet. That said I do think Cinci/SF would be a great matchup - unlike the last time they met in the SB in 1982. At the time neither team had any history of winning and the matchup seemed flukey, to me at least. That was Montana's first full year as a starter (they used to call him "Joe Cool") and before the Niners went on their run in the 80s and early 90s.
But the current editions of these teams, with a Joe Cool on the other side, leading a band of arrogant, cocky bruisers against these rowdy ass-kickin' Niners, come on man, how can you not want to see that?
@Duderonomy Not sure what you are getting at???..... Not trying to argue your Cincinnati position, no one knows what Mahomes is going to look like until that first drive come Sunday.
@Duderonomy Not sure what you are getting at???..... Not trying to argue your Cincinnati position, no one knows what Mahomes is going to look like until that first drive come Sunday.
But the current editions of these teams, with a Joe Cool on the other side, leading a band of arrogant, cocky bruisers against these rowdy ass-kickin' Niners, come on man, how can you not want to see that?
I'll find it very easy to not want to see that... but don't let that stop you from enjoying it!
But the current editions of these teams, with a Joe Cool on the other side, leading a band of arrogant, cocky bruisers against these rowdy ass-kickin' Niners, come on man, how can you not want to see that?
I'll find it very easy to not want to see that... but don't let that stop you from enjoying it!
Not gonna lose a lot of sleep if I lose either of these plays. I'm betting what the numbers and angles tell me to bet... but my heart leans strongly in the other direction on both games.
Not gonna lose a lot of sleep if I lose either of these plays. I'm betting what the numbers and angles tell me to bet... but my heart leans strongly in the other direction on both games.
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