Posted:
#1
A wise man once told me that early in the season, the team with more rushing attempts wins and covers the spread. Later in the season, it is more important to out-run the opponent (ypa). I did my own research and it is true. It has been working well for me for years. I will post my plays here hoping to contribute to this great forum. I wish you all the best in 2007 season !
The most difficult thing to do this early in the season is to find those teams who will be commited to the run...or better yet, those teams that could care less about it.
And I think I found a few...
Oakland Raiders have been all about run in the preseason. In week 3 (the only week that can give us an idea of what a team will do during the regular season), they had 46 rushing attempts and only 23 passing attempts. This is not a surprise when you have 2-3 solid rushers (Farkas, Jordan) and a mobile QB (DC). Perhps their new coach finally realized that they could be a respectable team with a good running game. As for Detroit, this is the only team that had 0 games in which they had more rushing than passing attempts last season. The trend should not change as they rushed 14 and passed 34 times in week 3. Oakland has to win this one. They are at home and have Denver next. They can not afford to start the season 0-2. Detroit is on the road (being on the WC doesn't help either) and a bad road team playing this far away from home, with a divisional game ahead will find it easier to explain a loss in a game like this one. Oakland -2.5 is the play.
Arizona is one of those teams that will pass more because they know they can't run effectively. And they have a good young QB who can give them the much needed offense by himself. They don't seem to be interested in running a whole lot this season. Not once in this preseason did they run more times than their opponents or have more rushing than passing attempts. SF has Gore and he was great last year. A player like that will get the ball very often, especially if A.Smith struggles. In week 3 of preseason, the 49ers had more rushing than passing attempts despite the fact they they had to play more agressively in the second half after trailing the Bears big time erly in the game. Revenge win and cover for the 49ers here (-3).
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