Posted:
#1
Looking to continue to build off of yesterdays nice profit (8-6-1 / $3100) and forget about Saturday's NCAAF collapse I am turning to the New England Patriots.
There is no way I am going to bore anybody with stats, trends, and analysis. There just is not a need to do it in this one.
Clearly, there will be no arguement that New England is the better team Offensively, Defensively, Special Teams, and Coaching. If anybody does argue those facts then they need to do some research to set themselves straight. that is their job, not mine. That being said, tonight we have the NFL's #1 Offense and the NFL's #1 Defense on the same sideline as New england is tops in both categories. While their Offense is dropping 38 points per game on opponents thus far this season, the defense is just as potent as it has allowed a meager 207 yards of total offense per game and a total of 11.7 points per game thus far. On the other side of the ball, Cincinatti's offense has put points on the board averaging 31 points per game, but their defense has allowed as many surrendering 31.7 points per game. The 93 points that Cincinatti has scored thus far in the campaign is a little skewed however as they were able to put 45 up against Cleveland in a totally defensless game.
While many would say that New England has yet to face any stiff competition, I would remind people that neither has Cincinatti. The Bengals one win this year came gift wrapped by the Rvens as they committed 5 turnovers! Despite the 4 fumbles and one interception the Bengals were behind at home until 8:48 remained in the game and they took a 7 point lead which they held on to. Think about that for a few minutes, Baltimore gave them the ball on 5 occassions and they could only muster a 7 point win halfway through the 4th quarter.
There is definately an edge when playing at home on Monday Night and I am sure that the Bengal fans will be very loud and excited for at least 1/2 way through the first quarter. New england will not turn the ball over 5 times, and unless the Bengals can match the Patriots point for point, this one could be over by the time the 1H ends.
Unlike in the NCAA on Saturday, this is the NFL and emotion will only carry you so far. Talent takes over when you have paid atheletes on the field and no amount of rah-rah will be able to change that. A Zebra cannot change it's stripes and neither will the Bengal defense change theirs. New England will find little obstacles in the way of their powerful offense, and I expect the defense to pin their ears back and be all over Palmer tonight. no Rudy means no fear of the run (if there ever was one) and it is obvious that the Bengals will have to throw early and often if they expect to even have a chance at remaining competitive in this one.
Do not over think or outwit yourselves on this one tonight. New England will be ready to play and should have little trouble imposing their will Offensively or Defensively tonight in Cincinatti. If you want to fade the Patriots wait two weeks until the Dallas game and you may be right, but do not fade them tonight!
Pick: New England -7
1H New england -4.5
But, what the hell do I know?
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