Mac's Wildcard Weekend Plays!!

Seattle -3

Sorry boys but the emotional run ends here for the Skins. Seattle just has too much talent and should handily dispose of the overachieving Skins. I know Washington has won 4 straight and are riding waves of emotion but you can't tell me an East Coast team is going to fly all the way to Seattle, where even the elite have a tough time winning, and win with Todd Collins as their quarterback. Sorry but I just can't see it. Collins has been a nice story but he hasn't had to win a game yet, look back at all of his games, Washington got out to big leads and all Collins had to do was play ball control and manage the game. I know the Washington running game has been putting up big numbers lately but don't be fooled, the main reason they are putting up big rushing numbers is because of what I said earlier, they get out to early leads and keep the ball out of Collins hands and play ball control by running it. Don't look at the yards per game that they have been averaging, look at the yards per carry which is a much better indicator of an efficient running game, and during their 4 game winning streak the Skins have averaged an awful 3.3 YPC, and even last week against a Dallas team that was basically playing 2^nd stringers on defense they only managed 131 yards on 37 carries, sure the yards look nice but the reality is it was on 3.5 YPC. I just really have a hard time seeing how this offense is going to manage to score this week. I think the Seahawks get out to an early lead and the Skins will really have to limit the run game, by the way it's going to be even tough to string off yards for this run game this week as the Seattle run defense only gives up 3.9 YPC overall and a meager 3.8 YPC at home which is 4^th best in the entire NFL.

And honestly I cannot see Todd Collins winning this game. First of all he is unproven and hasn't had to go out and win a dang game, he hasn't had to carry his team down the field, he hasn't had to make crucial plays on crucial drives. Secondly he is facing a pretty darn good pass defense. Again Seattle has given up it's fair share of passing yards this year but a lot of that is because teams have been down and have had to throw on them again and again and again. Here are the stats that really show how good the Seahawks pass D has been; The Seahawks rank #2 in the NFL for lowest opposing QB rating at just 73.0, in other words opposing QB's usually do terrible against them. The Seahawks have intercepted the 4^th most passes in the entire NFL. The Seahawks have given up the fewest TD passes all season in the entire NFL (just 15 in 16 games and 4 of them came last week in what was essentially a game the Seahawks didn't give a rats ass about, so that was 11 TD passes in 15 games!!). A lot of the success has to do with good coverage (keep an eye on corner Marcus Trufant, he could be the best cover corner you have never heard of) and a lot has to do with the pressure this defense is putting on the QB. Patrick Kerney has been a BEAST this year finished with 14.5 sacks on the season and the Seattle defense as a whole finished 4^th in the entire NFL with 45 QB sacks on the season. And this underrated Seattle defense has some absolute studs; Kerney, Darrell Tapp, Leroy Hill, Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson and Marcus Trufant are bigtime players. I know I've rambled on and on here but I just can't see how the hell this Washington offense is going to go into Seattle (where they only give up 13.9 PPG to begin with) and score more than 13 points?

Obviously I spent a ton of time talking about the Seattle D against the Washington O and that's obviously the matchup that heavily favors Seattle but I also think the Seattle O has an edge against the Washington defense. Ever since Holmgren “abondoned the running game” and went to the spread offense this Seattle offense has been awesome. They have gone 6-2 (should be 7-1 if the defense had given a shit last week) and have averaged 29.3 PPG! I also can't see how Washington will be able to cover the 4 WR sets of Seattle with good receivers like Deion Branch, DJ Hackett, Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson out there running around. And this talk about abondoning the running game is a load of crap, they have slowly brought it back the last few weeks with Maurice Morris and don't look now but Shaun Alexander (remember him?) is finally starting to look like he did back in his heyday. In fact in their last 3 games the Seattle running attack has averaged 4.4 YPC! Good news going against a Washington run D that gives up 4.1 YPC on the road.

Holy shit I think I just wrote a damn essay. Obviously I LOVE Seattle and at -3? Basically a fucking Pick'em at home are you kidding me? (Yes I think a line of 3 is basically a pick'em in NFL). Well I'm I will be on Pittsburgh and San Diego as well this weekend, and I'll have those write-ups probably tomorrow. Still debating on the NYG/TB game. See ya tomorrow with the PIT and SD writeups and BOL with your plays!!!!

i think im going to write a 2 page writeup on why i like the skins.

then he will change his mind.

washington will win SU tomorrow!!!

Pittsburgh +3

Oh ya gotta love the public and ESPN and all these “experts” cramming Jacksonville down our throats. OoOOoOOoooO no, nobody wants to play Jacksonville! Give me a break this is the playoffs and honestly if I had a team I would rather play an unproven playoff team like Jacksonville then a proven not only playoff, but Superbowl team like Pittsburgh. I mean is it just me or if I was a Steeler sitting there hearing all this shit about how great Jacksonville is and how smash-mouth they are and how they already smacked Pittsburgh on their home field, and every expert licking the Jags balls would I say to myself wow were screwed or I would be extremely pissed off and motivated to come out and prove everyone wrong smack their asses back to Jacksonville and get revenge on my home field? I think Pittsburgh has a massive motivational edge in this one.

And you know another thing that really bothers me? Where is everyone getting this crap about Jacksonville being a “smash-mouth and in your face football team”? Smash mouth teams are characterized by physical runners who can pound it inside (which I will admit the Jags do have that), but they are also characterized by tough in you face defenses that are not only good but great against the run and for Jacksonville I'm just not seeing this style of play on the defensive side of the ball. This Jags D is very overrated and they are particularly bad on the road, giving up almost 24 PPG, 4.2 YPC to opposing backs and I am not impressed by this secondary at all as teams with good passing games have ripped them up this year; Manning ripped them up, Brees ripped them up and even in the first game Roethlisberger through 3 TD's and had 0 picks in terrible weather. There's also been a lot of talk about how the Steelers will miss Parker and I'm sure they will but Najeh Davenport is a pretty good fill-in and is a big physical back that should get some decent yards. And quite frankly I don't think that Pittsburgh has to run the ball that much going up against a weak secondary and they have Big ben who can throw to some darn good targets in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and that boat load of tight ends they have. Throwing to these guys on short routes and dink and dumps will also minimize the effects of a banged up Pittsburgh O-line.

I also like the Pittsburgh defense going up against Garrard and the Jacksonville passing game. Sure Garrard has been good this year but he's a bit like Todd Collins, all he's really had to do is play ball control and take care of the football, he hasn't had to march his team down the field. If Jacksonville gets down do you really think Garrard is going to take the Jags down the field against the detailed blitz packages that Pittsburgh offers? I think Dick Lebeau will stack up the box and force David Garrard to beat the Steelers and I don't know if he can. When you add it all up these teams are pretty similar but you give me the home team with the better QB and defense, with a huge motivational edge on their side, getting +3 at home and I have to take the points.

San Diego -9

Boy oh boy I really have a hard time seeing how Tennessee is going to be able to keep this one close. The only thing I worry about is a backdoor cover. I'm really having a tough time seeing how the Titans are going to score. First of all Vince Young stinks, he won't be driving his team down the field to win this game. Secondly the Titans offense suffered two big losses this week with their tight end and leading receiver, who had really been playing well lately being lost for the season. I can't see them moving the ball through the air with Vince Young as their QB and Justin Gage as their leading receiver. Also the Titans offense looked terrible last week against the Colts second stringers, so what are they going to look like this week in San Diego against a defense that is finally healthy and playing like the top 3 defense that they are? The Chargers only give up 13.6 PPG at home and more importantly for a Titans offense that will be leaning heavily on the run early, the Chargers D only gives up 3.5 YPC at home this year. In fact if you take out the KC game from way back in the year where they piled on a few defensive scores late the Chargers have only given up 11.2 PPG at home and the most was 21 in a win over the Colts. I said it last week and I'll say it again this week, it is the resurgence of the Chargers defense (mainly due to being healthy) that has made them the improved team that they are. During their 6 game win streak the defense has been awesome and they have only given up 12.5 points per game.

Philip Rivers also takes a lot of heat but the fact is he has been much better lately and a lot of it has to do with the fact that the offensive line has played much better of late and up to their potential and is actually pass blocking and keeping the heat off of Rivers. I also think the addition of Chris Chambers in the pass game was a valuable asset as he has come up with some big catches since joining the Chargers, in fact you could say he's now Rivers' go to WR. Rivers has also been darn good at home this year and even more so lately as he has had a QB over 100 in 4 of his last 5 home starts and has an 8/2 TD/INT ratio during that time. And how can I talk about the Chargers without mentioning LT and the SD run game? The bottomline is I don't care is Haynesworth plays or not for Tennessee, he still isn't the same player since he got injured and LT already ran all over him in Tennessee to the tune of 26 carries for 146 yards (5.1 YPC) and 2 total TD, and remember that was IN Tennessee that is key too because LT also is a better player at home. At home this year LT averaged 103 rushing yards a game and 5.2 YPC, and if you throw out the fist game of the season against Chicago where he and the offensive line really struggled LT averaged 114 rushing yards per game and a sick 5.7 YPC at home. He also had 10 rushing TD's at home this year and keep in mind a lot of those stats came in games where he only played the first half because of blowouts. I also like the depth at RB the chargers have behind LT. Micheal Turner and Darren Sproles could probably start on half the teams in the NFL, and keep an eye on Sproles on kick returns as he has been lethal this year.

Bottomline is San Diego is too much in all 3 facets of the game and when they get out to a decent lead I just don't see Vince Young, throwing to who again?, rallying his team back and bringing them down the field, especially in San Diego where the Chargers are so good at home.

Nice !!!!!!!!!!!