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***GWarner27's Pre-Season NFL Thread***

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Posted: #51
15-21-1 YTD

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St. Louis -3 (-115, 2H) @ Seattle
-Got what I hoped for as I didn't want to lay the 4 pre-game, but I think the Rams are the better team and one big blown coverage cost them the lead going into halftime. St. Louis is going to commit to the run game, and I prefer Sam Bradford to Charlie Whitehurst. I've been all over the Rams this year, and that's partly a problem in my record being poor, but here's a chance for them to bail me out and get to the playoffs. I like that they can lose by 1 and I can get a push, too.
 
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Posted: #53
footballing

2-1 week to close the season feels nice, but it's time to clean up

15-22-1 YTD

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Baltimore -2.5 (-110) @ Kansas City
-I have Baltimore to win the Super Bowl and my plan since Week 13 was to ride them whenever they've been reasonably-priced. Since then I have won twice (@Houston & vs. NO) and had a tough luck loss against Pittsburgh, but this Ravens team has competed with everyone and I think they can weather the Arrowhead storm. The atmosphere is going to be crazy, but the Ravens can stop the Chiefs rushing attack and they will be able to move the ball on the defense. Hoping for a Jets win in Indy so the Ravens can go knock the Steelers out before maybe hosting an AFC championship.
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

2007-08: 34-36-3 48.6% -4.211
2008-09: 25-39-1 39.1% -19.329
2009-10: 8-9 47.1% -0.576

All input is appreciated, and will answer any questions if I'm way off from what you think.

Season Win Totals:
NE 10 Win
NYJ 12.5 Win
MIA 7.5 Win
BUF 6.5 Loss
BAL 9 Loss
PIT 8 Loss
CIN 9 Loss
CLE 4.5 Win
IND 12 Loss
JAX 8.5 Win
TEN 9 Loss
HOU 9.5 Loss
KC 7 Win
DEN 6 Win
SD 10 Win
OAK 6.5 Win
NYG 9 Win
WAS 8.5 Loss
PHI 7 Loss
DAL 9 Win
GB 9 Loss
MIN 9 Win
DET 4.5 Loss
CHI 7.5 Loss
ATL 10.5 Win
CAR 7 Win
NO 11 Win
TB 7 Win
SEA 7 Win
SF 8 Win
ARI 7 Win
StL 6 Loss


interesting to see how i would have done playing everything...

19-13 (59.4%)

Exact win predictions: 2
 
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Posted: #55
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Seattle +10 (-109) vs. New Orleans
-Hate the NFC West this year as that's where I've lost most of my money, but the Saints are so banged up that this number will be hard to cover. I hate the Seahawks inability to stop the run, but Julius Jones doesn't worry me and Drew Brees has been playing terribly recently. I like the move to Hasselbeck cuz he can make his own offense unlike Whitehurst, and having Charlie back there in case Matt's back acts up is a good thing. The Seahawks' special teams is awesome at home and their HFA has such an effect on opposing OLs. This is a ton to cover when all the Saints want to advance, and they really are limping in at this point. Need an early score from Seattle to allow them to start milking the clock, and I think that can happen on a kickoff or on a lackadaisical play by Brees when he tries to do everything himself. I also think everyone and their brother is on NO...
 
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Posted: #56

17-22-1 YTD


Baltimore +3.5 (-115) @ Pittsburgh

-I said I’m riding Baltimore until they win the Super Bowl or get eliminated, and that’s what I’m doing. Baltimore should have swept the season series and had this game at home, but the late fumble forced by a great play from Troy Polamalu kept that from happening. It cost me a little over a unit in that game, but it gave me a much better price on them to win the Super Bowl (almost 20-1) and gave me an extra game to take the Ravens (last weekend) so maybe it’s a great thing. Both teams have unbelievable defenses, probably an advantage to the Pittsburgh secondary and washes in the LBs and on the D-line, but I think the offensive side of the ball will be the difference. Big Ben has won plenty in his career obviously with the Super Bowl wins, but I think Flacco is catching up to him and the young guy has a much better offensive line. I prefer the Ravens RBs, WRs and Todd Heap to anyone the Steelers put out there, and they have the better kicking game. HFA will be huge in the ‘Burgh, but I’m hoping the Ravens are the one who gets the big turnover that swings this game.

 
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Posted: #57
17-23-1 YTD

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Wes Welker receptions -1 (-120) vs. Santonio Holmes
-The individual props have Welker at o/u 6 and Holmes at o/u 4.5, plus I think Welker will be a safety valve today while the Jets are going to run and run and run to keep the ball out of Mark Sanchez's hands.

...probably playing the Jets
 
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Posted: #58
Good to hear you on Jets. Beware of the Revis on WW, Coleman/Lowery won't do.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Footballing:

Good to hear you on Jets. Beware of the Revis on WW, Coleman/Lowery won't do.


I think Welker will still get his, but thanks for confirming what I was afraid of...

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New York +9 (-105) @ New England
-Simply put, this is going to be a close game. I think the Jets can run on the Pats and they will be hoping to stay close by keeping Sanchez from making tough decisions. If the Pats get up early this one will be over, but I don't think they will.
 
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Posted: #61
next week guesses:
bears -2.5 (39.5)
pats -6.5 (45) or steelers -3 (35.5)
 
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Posted: #63
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Rashard Mendenhall score a TD: Yes (-145)
-Think he's going to get the ball a lot even though they won't have much success running, and he gets it a ton in the redzone.
Green Bay OVER 25.5 completions (-155)
-The Packers will give up on the run after seeing it doesn't work early in the game, and they will throw all night indoors. I don't even mind if Rodgers gets hurt because Flynn can pick the secondary apart, too.
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